Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City Prediction: Overs on corners and cards

There's a New Zealand derby to look forward to on Saturday as Auckland and Wellington Phoenix face off at Go Media Stadium - check out my preview here - and later in the day, there's another Australian A-League Men's rivalry to take in as Melbourne Victory and Melbourne City clash at AAMI Park (08:35, TNT Sports 1).

Below are my Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City predictions, supported by all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of the third and final Melbourne derby of the regular 2024/25 campaign.

Team News

Melbourne Victory goalkeeper Jack Duncan, who started his side's first 13 ALM games this season before being usurped by mid-season arrival Mitchell Langerak, has picked up an injury and will be replaced on the substitutes bench by either 21-year-old Christian Siciliano or 18-year-old Daniel Graskoski on Saturday.

Jinc Reec has also been added to Arthur Diles' extended squad which features neither Luka Kolic (omitted) nor Joshua Inserra (international duty).

Diles could name an unchanged starting XI from the one that beat Wellington Phoenix 1-0 last Friday, although Brazilian winger Clarismario Santos Rodrigues must be in contention to begin the Melbourne derby after replacing Nishan Velupillay at half-time and setting up Nikos Vergos' winner against the Nix.

Daniel Arzani, Bruno Fornaroli and Kasey Bos may have to settle for substitute roles once again.

Football Odds

Melbourne City were dealt a blow earlier this week with the news that influential midfielder Steven Ugarkovic has been ruled out for the next few weeks with a hamstring strain picked up in last weekend's 1-0 win over Perth Glory.

Central defensive duo Kai Trewin and Samuel Souprayen both return, though, with the former set to make his first appearance in almost a month.

Andreas Kuen, who has been sidelined with a hamstring injury for the last six games, has also fully recovered and is available for selection, as is Ben Mazzeo who missed out last Saturday due to illness.

As a consequence of the four inclusions, Ben Dunbar drops out of the extended squad.

Andrew Nabbout, Alessandro Lopane, Yonatan Cohen, Jayden Necovski (all knee) and Jimmy Jeggo (Achilles) remain in the Melbourne City treatment room, while Medin Memeti is still on international duty with the Young Socceroos at the AFC U20 Asian Cup in China.

Melbourne Victory vs Melbourne City Odds

Victory won the first Melbourne derby of the season back in October, triumphing 3-1 under then-boss Patrick Kisnorbo, and Diles' side are 21/20 favorites to claim all three points this Saturday. Those odds imply a 48.8% probability while City are 21/10, or a 32.3% chance, to win their first derby since April 2023.

Four of the last six meetings between the two teams, including the most recent derby in December (1-1), have ended in a stalemate, and a fifth draw in seven can be backed at 12/5, with both teams to score at 8/13.

Former City hero Fornaroli is 7/4 favourite for Victory in the anytime goalscorer market, with Max Caputo (12/5) first up for Aurelio Vidmar's charges.

Booking Points Over/Under +42.5 - Over 42.5 @ 6/4

The first two Melbourne derbies of the season were mild-mannered with just a single yellow shown in the opening one and only three - all for City - given in the second.

However, in the third and final derby of the regular campaign, with just a single point separating Victory (third) and City (fourth) in the ALM table as they each look to nail down a top-six spot and push on for the top two, I can see things spilling over on Saturday and at least five cards being brandished.

With Betfred, a yellow amounts to 10 booking points, so five cautions between the two teams at AAMI Park would bring us up to 50 and well over the 42.5 required to land this 6/4 selection.

The last 'crucial' Melbourne derby was in the play-offs last May when seven cards - six yellow, one red - were dished out in regulation time before three yellows - two resulting in a red for Curtis Good - were given in extra time.

There were also 80 booking points awarded in Victory's 2-1 win over City last April in the final regular season Melbourne derby and in fact, prior to this term, four straight meetings went over the 42.5 threshold.

Corners Over/Under 10.5 - Over 10.5 @ 5/6

This game is too close to call, for me, so I'm steering well clear of the match result markets.

Instead, for my second selection, I'm tipping over 10.5 corners, a line that has cleared in the last four Melbourne derbies. The first of those, in April last year, saw a mammoth 18 awarded, 11 in the direction of Victory, and seven for City.

The following month there were 15 corners taken in regulation time and another six in extra time.

Things have settled down slightly this season with 'only' 11 awarded in October's meeting and 13 last time out between the two in December, but this selection still landed in both.

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