Auckland vs Wellington Phoenix Prediction: Cards to trump goals in third Kiwi clash

The third and final New Zealand derby of the regular 2024/25 Australian A-League Men's season takes place at Auckland's Go Media Stadium on Saturday (04:00, TNT Sports 1) as the league leaders host third-from-bottom Wellington Phoenix. The Black Knights won the first head-to-head 2-0 at Sky Stadium in November before beating the Nix 2-1 on home soil the following month.

Below are my Auckland vs Wellington Phoenix predictions, complete with all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Louis Verstraete was suspended for last weekend's 2-0 win at Western United but the influential midfielder is free to return to action on Saturday. The Belgian should go straight back into Steve Corica's starting XI with Luis Felipe Gallegos, who filled in for the 25-year-old in Tarneit, set to drop back down to the bench for the hosts.

Fijian centre-back Daniel Hall has been out since mid-December with a broken ankle and he is still recovering from that injury, but otherwise, Auckland are at full strength.

Captain Hiroki Sakai, who joined the club ahead of their inaugural ALM season last year, signed a one-year contract extension earlier this week, keeping him at the Black Knights until the end of the 2025/26 season.

Football Odds

Giancarlo Italiano's extended Wellington Phoenix squad for this Saturday's crunch clash shocked many with the inclusion of Marco Rojas, who he had previously suggested would be out for the rest of the season. The 'Kiwi Messi' is listed as available this weekend, though, so he could make the bench at Go Media Stadium.

New signing Chico Geraldes, who joined on loan from Malaysian side JDT earlier this month, is in line to make his debut for the Nix against their fellow New Zealanders.

Sam Sutton, however, is suspended after picking up a fifth yellow card of the campaign in last Friday's 1-0 defeat at Melbourne Victory, while Stefan Colakovski (knee) and Gabriel Sloane-Rodrigues (knock) remain in the Wellington treatment room.

Auckland vs Wellington Phoenix Odds

Auckland are 4/9 to chalk up a third straight success over their rivals, implying a 69.2% probability, while Wellington are 5/1, or a 16.7% chance, to secure that elusive victory over the Black Knights.

The draw, which would deprive Auckland of maximum points against the Nix for the first time, is priced at 3/1, and both teams to score at 10/11.

Uruguayan forward Guillermo May, yet to score in this fixture, heads the anytime goalscorer market at 6/4, with Wellington's star striker Kosta Barbarouses, who struck a late consolation in their December defeat at Go Media Stadium, shortest priced for the visitors at 7/4.

Total Goals - Under 2.5 @ 10/11

This selection was a winner in November as a late Jack Brimmer brace secured all three points for Auckland. Brimmer's first was scored in the 89th minute and he doubled the lead in the sixth minute of added time to clinch the game for the Black Knights.

Under 2.5 goals wasn't far away from landing in December, too, with Auckland appearing to be heading for another 2-0 scoreline before Barabarouses popped up in the 82nd minute to add some jeopardy to the closing stages.

Since then, Auckland have played 10 times with four of those contests ending with two or fewer goals, and 56 per cent (nine) of their 16 ALM games this season have gone under 2.5, the same figure as Wellington - only Melbourne City (11) have been involved in more matches that have finished with fewer two or fewer strikes than the New Zealand pair.

I can see another cagey contest unfolding on Saturday and therefore the 10/11 on under 2.5 appeals here.

Bookings Points - 60-75 @ 4/1

The first meeting between these sides this season was mild-mannered with just two yellows flashed in the direction of Auckland, and none to the Nix.

Things were very different at Go Media Stadium in December, however, with six yellows dished out - five to Wellington and one to the Black Knights (Italiano was also carded on the touchline).

With Betfred, one yellow amounts to 10 booking points, so 60 were awarded in total last time out between Auckland and Wellington.

In the final New Zealand derby of the regular campaign on Saturday, I can see tempers flaring again and a similar number of cards being shown. Six or seven sounds about right to me and either would land this second selection at a tasty 4/1.

Offers

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