Melbourne Victory vs Auckland Prediction: A cagey first leg at AAMI Park

Melbourne Victory ended Western Sydney Wanderers' 12-game unbeaten streak last weekend, beating Alen Stajcic's side 3-2 at CommBank Stadium in their Elimination Final to advance to a two-legged semi-final play-off tie against Premiership winners Auckland FC, who they host at AAMI Park on Saturday (10:35, TNT Sports 1).

Below are my Melbourne Victory vs Auckland predictions, complete with all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Melbourne Victory number one Mitch Langerak (foot) continues to miss out for Arthur Diles' side, meaning Jack Duncan will start a fourth successive match in goal on Friday.

Veteran full-back Adama Traore (unspecified) is also still sidelined, but Reno Piscopo, who has been out injured since mid-April, is back involved this week.

Football Odds

Diles could name an unchanged starting XI following last week's win at CommBank Stadium, where Kasey Bos and Zinedine Machach struck either side of an effort from home forward Zac Sapsford.

That would mean Joshua Rawlins, Clarismario, Brendan Hamill, Jing Reec and Bruno Fornaroli, all of whom appeared as second-half substitutes in Sydney, having to settle for bench roles again.

Once again, Auckland have a fully-fit squad available.

Luis Toomey and Liam Gillion are both in the Black Knights' 20-man extended squad, which will be whittled down to 18 on matchday.

Neyder Moreno and Jake Brimmer started Auckland's final regular-season game on the bench, but both have chances of beginning Friday's first leg, while Tommy Smith, Callan Elliot and Jesse Randall are all second-half options for Steve Corica.

Melbourne Victory vs Auckland Odds

Melbourne Victory have won four of their last six games, and Diles' side are 13/10 to make it five from seven on Saturday and take a lead into next week's second leg. That implies a win probability of 43.5%, while Auckland are 9/5, or a 35.7% chance, to head back to New Zealand with the advantage.

The draw is priced at 11/5, both teams to score at 4/6, and over 2.5 total goals at 5/6.

Betfred are offering a couple of price boosts for this first leg, with 'Melbourne Victory To Win, Bruno Fornaroli To Score Or Assist & Guillermo May 2+ Shots On Target' boosted from 6/1 to 7/1, and 'Either Team To Win, Melbourne Victory Most Corners & Zinedine Machach To Be Carded' from 11/2 to 13/2.

Total Goals - Under 2.5 @ 5/6

Semi-final first legs can often be cagey contests, as Victory can attest. Their last two in the play-offs have seen one or fewer goals scored, with the first, in 2021/22, seeing them beat Western United 1-0 at home before suffering a 4-1 defeat in the return fixture, while last season, they played out a goalless draw with Wellington Phoenix in Melbourne before advancing to the final 2-1 after extra time in New Zealand.

This tie also pits two of the league's meanest defences against each other, with Auckland conceding just 27 times in 26 games - only Melbourne City (25) were breached on fewer occasions. Third in the goals conceded column was Victory, whose net was troubled 36 times.

Auckland and Victory have met twice already this season, and neither match was a classic.

The first, played on New Year's Day, was a goalless draw at Go Media Stadium, with just 18 shots and four shots on target recorded.

The second, at AAMI Park on April 19, saw the Black Knights win 2-0, but again, there wasn't a whole lot of entertainment on show - 20 shots, five on target, and both goals were struck in the second half (53rd and 89th minute).

Those scorelines weren't entirely surprising given how both teams had performed this season.

Auckland ran away with the title but only scored 49 goals, ranking them behind Western Sydney Wanderers (58), Western United (55), Adelaide United, Sydney FC (both 53) and Macarthur (50), while Victory (44) were behind all six teams.

Only Melbourne City (2.54) and Wellington Phoenix (2.69) games averaged fewer goals per game this season than Auckland (2.92), while Victory only averaged 3.08.

Moreover, only Melbourne City (65%) saw a higher percentage of their ALM matches in 2024/25 finish with two or fewer goals than Auckland (54%), while Victory (46%) placed fifth in those regular-season standings.

Given the strength of both sides in defence, their less impressive attacks, the two previous scorelines between the two this season, and the fact that this is the first of a two-match tie, backing under 2.5 goals at 11/10 makes a lot of sense to me.

Corners Over/Under - Under 8.5 @ 13/8

Just four corners were awarded in their last meeting between these two teams, with Victory taking one and Auckland the other three at AAMI Park in April.

Victory (5.92) averaged the most corners taken per game in the regular ALM season, but Auckland (4.77) averaged the joint-fourth lowest, and three of their last four away matches, including their most recent two (four in each), have seen eight or fewer awarded in total.

Meanwhile, the semi-final first leg between Western United and Melbourne City at AAMI Park on Friday saw just five corners whistled, following on from just five given in Western United's Elimination Final against Adelaide United a week prior.

I'm expecting a cagey contest between Victory and Auckland on Saturday, so there looks to be some value in backing under 8.5 corners in this first leg.

Offers

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