Melbourne City vs Sydney Prediction: Reds to profit from Sky Blues’ suffering

It all comes down to the last game for Sydney FC, who must avoid defeat against Melbourne City at AAMI Park on Saturday (08:00, TNT Sports 3) to overtake Adelaide United in sixth and book their spot in the Australia A-League Men's finals. The hosts, however, have a prize of their own in their sights, as a victory this weekend would guarantee Aurelio Vidmar's side second spot in the table and a place in next season’s AFC Champions League Elite competition.

Below are my Melbourne City vs Sydney predictions, alongside all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Melbourne City are bolstered by the return from injury of Mathew Leckie, who has missed four of his side's last five games.

Harry Politidis has also been promoted to the extended squad, while Steven Ugarkovic (hamstring) and Samuel Souprayen (calf) remain sidelined but will be in the mix to return for the finals.

Football Odds

Jimmy Jeggo (Achilles), Andrew Nabbout, Jayden Necovski and James Nieuwenhuizen (all knee) are still out for Vidmar's charges.

Despite limping off in the 61st minute of last Sunday's 1-0 defeat to Western United with a groin injury, Sydney star Joe Lolley has been named in the Sky Blues' extended squad for their trip to Melbourne.

Leo Sena is also in after missing Sydney's last two games, but his participation is still touch-and-go, and a late call will be made as to whether he travels to AAMI Park following a calf complaint.

Patryk Klimala and Corey Hollman also missed out last weekend, but both are available for selection here.

Aaron Gurd (collarbone), Alex Grant (calf) and Jaushua Sotirio (quad) remain in the Sky Blues' treatment room.

Melbourne City vs Sydney Odds

Melbourne City are 5/6 to pick up an all-important victory on Saturday, implying a 54.5% probability of success, while Sydney are 5/2, or a 28.6% chance, to clinch a top-six spot by beating their hosts.

The draw, which would be enough for the Sky Blues in their push for finals football, is priced at 13/5, both teams to score at 1/2, and over 2.5 total goals at 1/2.

Max Caputo (11/8), Medin Memeti (8/5) and Yonatan Cohen (13/8) head the anytime goalscorer market for City, with Klimala (15/8) first up for Sydney.

Match Result & Both Teams to Score - Melbourne City & Yes @ 2/1

This is a huge match for both teams, with City needing to claim all three points to confirm a runners-up spot, while Sydney must pick up just one to clinch sixth place ahead of Adelaide.

It's the hosts who arrive into this contest in better form, however, with City unbeaten in their last five games (W3, D2), and only suffering one defeat in their last 10 (W6, D3, L1).

Sydney, meanwhile, lost 1-0 at Western United last Sunday and have only won three of their last nine league matches (W3, D4, L2). One of those defeats in that run came against City, at Allianz Stadium on March 29, when they were beaten 3-2, marking their sixth consecutive ALM game against the Melbourne club without a win.

Talay's side have won two of their last three away matches, but those victories were against Macarthur, currently in eighth, and an Adelaide outfit in the midst of an eight-game winless run. It's their away form that has really cost them this season, as after winning two of their first three away from Allianz Stadium, they failed to win any of their next six on their travels.

City, on the other hand, have been mightily impressive at home this calendar year, winning seven of their nine games at AAMI Park (W7, D1, L1), and with a place in next season’s lucrative AFC Champions League Elite competition up for grabs, you can be sure that they will be highly motivated to end the regular season with a win.

I'm backing the hosts to triumph on Saturday, but I'm also adding in both teams to score, despite City boasting the league's second-best defence, which has conceded just 24 goals in 25 outings.

Sydney failed to get on the scoresheet last weekend but had found the net in their previous five games, and 68% (17/25) of their matches this season have ended with both teams scoring.

City kept a clean sheet last Saturday as Adelaide held them to a goalless draw at AAMI Park, but they conceded exactly twice in their two previous games, beating Brisbane Roar 3-2 at home before drawing 2-2 at Western Sydney Wanderers, while Sydney notched a couple against them in late March.

Anytime Goalscorer - Adrian Segecic (SYD) @ 12/5

Yes, this selection failed to land at 7/5 last weekend, but that was surely a rare off-day for Adrian Segecic in front of goal, who is still by far Sydney's most likely scorer at Ironbark Fields.

The 20-year-old, who, with 13 goals, leads the Golden Boot race alongside Adelaide's Archie Goodwin, was responsible for 35.7% (5/14) of his side's efforts at goal that day, hitting the post with his second shot and forcing a save with his fourth.

With Lolley sidelined, Segecic will assume even more responsibility in the final third on Saturday, but it's something he should relish.

Prior to last weekend, Segecic had struck in three consecutive appearances, netting four goals, and with Adelaide having played all their regular season games, the Golden Boot is well within his grasp, although 12-goal Western Sydney Wanderers star Nicolas Milanovic (12 goals) and Western United marksman Noah Botic (11 goals) will also believe they still have a chance of claiming top honours.

A goal or two on Saturday would surely make it Segecic's, and I think he can notch at least one against City, who struggled to contain him in March. The Sydney ace came off the bench in the 10th minute at Allianz Stadium for the stricken Sena and shot five times, forcing Harrison Devenish-Meares into three saves.

Offers

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