Manchester City vs Aston Villa Prediction: Goals to flow at the Etihad

Tuesday (20:00, Sky Sports Main Event) brings a crunch clash in the race for Champions League football in the Premier League as Manchester City welcome Aston Villa to the Etihad Stadium. The hosts have won three of their last four matches in the top flight, including two on on home turf.

Villa come into this clash off the back of a six-game winning streak in the top flight, with their latest being a 4-1 demolition of fellow UCL chasers Newcastle United on Saturday. One point separates the two sides with City in fourth and Villa in seventh. Read on for my Manchester City vs Aston Villa predictions, supported by the latest team news and match odds.

Football Odds

Team News

Rodri and Nathan Ake remain sidelined for Manchester City and both are not expected to feature for the rest of the campaign. Manuel Akanji was back in the squad in the victory at Everton after a spell on the sidelines.

The defender made an appearance in the second half but he may have to wait a bit longer before he is returned to the starting XI.

Phil Foden was also fit to make the bench on Merseyside but he was an unused substitute, suggesting that Pep Guardiola might have been keeping him fresh to face Villa.

Erling Haaland and John Stones remain in the treatment room but there is hope that the pair can return to the pitch in early May.

Mateo Kovacic could be set for a start in midfield here after coming off the bench to score against Everton last time out. This fixture would be a special one for the Croatian, too, as it would mark his 200th Premier League appearance.

Villa have just one concern ahead of their trip to east Manchester as Pau Torres was left out of the squad against Newcastle due to a minor issue. Tyrone Mings partnered Ezri Konsa at the back, and this partnership looks likely to continue at the Etihad.

Leon Bailey is back available and will be hoping to make the squad on Tuesday, but there is so much competition for places among the attacking ranks. Donyell Malen has scored three goals in his previous four appearances (twice as a substitute), so Bailey has his work cut out to get back into the fold.

Ross Barkley is also back in contention but it's unlikely he will depose either Youri Tielemans or Boubacar Kamara given the form they are in.

Ollie Watkins started against Newcastle and scored in the opening minute. He opened up after the game about his frustration surrounding his lack of game time in recent weeks, but he may just have reclaimed his spot back from Marcus Rashford, who will be eager to play on his return to Manchester.

Manchester City vs Aston Villa Odds

Man City are perceive as the favourites here, with a 5/6 price to take the victory. The Citizens have won five of their past eight home matches in the Premier League.

Both teams to score has been a successful bet in five of their last eight league games at the Etihad, so you can boost your odds by combining BTTS with a City win at 2/1, which has an implied probability of 33.3%. BTTS on its own is 1/2.

There is also value to be had in backing Villa to prevail at 3/1, which seems generous considering they have won five fixtures on the spin in the top flight.

City have drawn two of their previous five games in the league and the stalemate is also marketed at 3/1.

Villa forward Watkins has two goals in as many matches coming into Tuesday and he is the second favourite at 13/8 to strike anytime.

Over 3.5 goals @ 5/4

With this being a huge game for both teams, I think it's best to avoid going for a result here because this looks to be an extremely tight affair. Goals do grab my attention, though, and I believe they will flow in M11.

The race for Champions League football is so compact with just two points separating third and seventh (at the time of writing). Neither City nor Villa can afford to drop points against a direct rival, so Tuesday's contest is likely going to have plenty of fireworks.

Both sides are in good form coming into this and I think the attacking stars can shine. Over 3.5 goals has been a successful bet in five of Man City's last seven Premier League encounters at the Etihad, including their latest against Crystal Palace on April 12.

Villa's latest match saw five goals scored as they battered high-flying Newcastle 4-1 at Villa Park. It was a great response from the players who had just been dumped out of the Champions League.

Emery and his players are pumped up for the final run-in and I think this will lead to a goal-fest in east Manchester.

Over 1.5 first half goals @ 5/4

I believe that there is also value to be had in backing a couple of goals to be scored in the opening half. I'm expecting a fast start in Manchester as both teams will look to take control of the match early as this is deemed a must-win for both clubs.

The Etihad has experienced lively starts in recent months with each of their previous eight league games here featuring at least two goals in the first half. This run dates back to Boxing Day against Everton.

This has also been a winning selection in two of Villa's last three PL appearances. Both sets of players come into Tuesday full of confidence, and I believe this will lead to a frantic opening 45 minutes in M11.

Offers

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