Man City vs Man United Prediction: Back Bruno to see yellow

The big game on Sunday comes from the Etihad as the champions take on their city-rivals. Note that this match has a slightly abnormal kick-off time of 15:30 and will be broadcast live on Sky Sports.

Neil Monnery takes us through his Man City vs Man United predictions as he previews the action and offers up his best betting tips for what could be a long afternoon for Erik ten Hag and his men…

A week or so ago, there was a bit of a feel-good factor floating around Old Trafford. Rasmus Hojlund had finally started to show that investing in him rather than Harry Kane may not have been the worst decision in the world. Alejandro Garnacho was enjoying a successful run in the side as was another youngster in Kobbie Mainoo.

Sir Jim Ratcliffe had completed his partial takeover and he was starting to assemble his team to sort out the football operations side of the club, something that has not been working well for many years. Maybe the greatest club of the modern era was starting to really find its feet again. Maybe they weren’t doomed to always look across at the neighbours from across the city with a sense of jealousy.

Then their young striker got hurt and would miss two or three weeks, no big deal you think but just over 24 hours later, Fulham’s Alex Iwobi was celebrating a 97th minute winner at Old Trafford and once more the clouds were starting to gather.

A midweek cup win at the City Ground was nothing to write home about. It got them in the hat for the Quarter-Finals but when you consider that Nottingham Forest are one of the worst sides in the top-flight, that type of performance once again shone a torch on the lack of consistency and trust you can have when following the Red Devils.

Over on the other side of Manchester, they too played a midweek cup match against a side from towards the foot of the Premier League. Unlike United, they conceded twice and therefore clearly, they look like they are in worse form than ten Hag’s men. Wait what’s that? They scored six, including five from their so-called out-of-form talisman Erling Haaland. Oh boy.

I know this isn’t the be all and end all but when you go away from home and have 17 shots on goal, that is a pretty impressive performance no matter who you are playing. When 15 of those shots are on target and six of them find the back of the net, that is worth plenty of praise.

Kevin de Bruyne has endured a stop, start season due to injury but the Belgian showed all his class on Tuesday night. I might go as far to say that had the 32-year-old been available for the majority of the campaign, then Pep’s side wouldn’t be locked in a three-way battle for the title, they would have a significant gap between themselves and the other two sides currently in the mix. We all forget just what a marvellous player KDB is and I fully expect him to run the show on Sunday afternoon.

Team News:

Bruno Fernandes, Raphael Varane and Casemiro were all doubts heading into the FA Cup tie with Nottingham Forest in the week but they all came through and they are fully expected to be available to Erik ten Hag.

The Dutch manager however still has several long-term injury absentees that he won’t be able to call upon. No fewer than eight first-team squad members are not expected to be in the matchday squad, with the likes of Harry Maguire, Rasmus Hojlund and Mason Mount among those who’ll be watching from the sidelines.

ETH will have to decide whether he goes with the experience of Scott McTominey or the young talent that is Kobbie Mainoo in the centre of the park. Christian Eriksen too could be an option, despite not having had the impact he did a year ago.

As for Pep, it looks as though he’ll be without Jack Grealish. The England man had to be taken off before half-time of that 2-6 rout of Luton Town, with a groin problem set to further derail what must be an extremely frustrating season for the player.

The other member of the first-team squad whose availability seems in doubt in Josko Gvardiol. His ankle injury is progressing according to reports but whether he makes it in time for Sunday’s clash is certainly up in the air as of the time of writing.

Ederson, Ruben Dias, Rodri and Phil Foden all enjoyed the midweek win from the comfort of the substitutes bench. It would be a huge surprise if any of the quartet didn’t return to the starting XI on Sunday.

Man City vs Man United Odds:

There is little shock in the fact that Betfred make Manchester City the overwhelming favourites to leave the pitch with the three points safely tucked away in their back pocket. The odds of 1/4 for the home win are short but are most certainly not surprising. The draw at 5/1 feels maybe a touch long, with the visitors claiming the victory priced-up as a 10/1 shot.

The Both Teams to Score market is actually closer than I would have expected, with Yes sitting at 8/11 with Evens for No. That does seem to indicate more trepidation than I would have expected for United to find the back of the net.

That is backed up by the fact Over 3.5 is only 10/11, the money does seem to be pointing towards a fairly hefty home win.

Both talkSPORT and The Telegraph have created their own #PickYourPunt bets, which you can back on the market pages (linked to by clicking on the odds). The former are going with Over 3.5 Goals, Erling Haaland & Phil Foden To Score & Casemiro To Be Carded at a 15/2 price, whilst the latter have a 7/2 shot of Man City To Win, Erling Haaland To Score & Bruno Fernandes To Be Carded.

Bet 1 - Bruno Fernandes to be carded @ 9/5

I have a stat for you all. Manchester United have lost ten games so far in the Premier League. Not good. In those ten matches, their captain has been booked in six of them.

He’s only had his name taken in two of his starts when United have drawn or lost. So there is a clear pattern that the Portuguese international seems far more likely to see a flash of yellow in his face if his team are struggling.

Like most, I fear for Manchester United in this one and that could well lead to their 29-year-old midfielder showing petulance as is his wont. The 9/5 price indicates a 36% chance of happening and when he’s already been booked in 60% of his games where his side have tasted defeat, it becomes pretty clear why I think this is a value prop bet.

Bet 2 - Erling Haaland to score a header @ 9/2

I’m searching for a spot of value here as everyone is going to have the big Norwegian to score anytime as part of their Bet Builder or as a single. It will be one of the most popular prop bets in this game.

Therefore using the #PickYourPunt option, I’m going a bit deeper and taking the in-form man to score with a header.

We’ve all seen how he dominates defenders and with the talk that Jonny Evans may be called into service for this one, that would be a match-up that would leave the 23-year-old licking his lips.

Should Kevin de Bruyne start, then this bet really gets interesting. The Belgian midfielder is the best crosser of the ball in the Premier League in my opinion. If we put his quality of delivery with Erling Haaland’s determination and strength in the box, then I think the 18% chance of this happening, which the odds of 9/2 indicate, feels like a big price.

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