Malmo FF vs Rigas FS Prediction: Swedish champions should see this through

Swedish champions Malmo FF welcome Rigas FS to the Eleda Stadium tonight (Wednesday 18:00) in the second leg of the Champions League second qualifying round.

Die Blae have a comfortable 4-1 win in their back pocket from the first leg, where Pontus Jansson and Lasse Berg Johnsen were among the goals. Malmo are aiming for their first appearance in a Champions League group stage since the 2021/22 season. 

Rigas, better known simply as RFS, have never been further than this round in the competition. But the Latvian champions made history in the Europa League group stage last season. RFS scored their first victory at that stage of continental competition, shocking Ajax 1-0 at home.

Here are my Malmo vs Rigas predictions ahead of this UCL showdown.

Team News

Sweden defender Johan Karlsson and first leg goalscorer Lasse Berg Johnsen are both doubts. The pair are expected to undergo late fitness tests, but may not be risked given the 4-1 lead Malmo take into the tie.

35-year-old defender Anders Christiansen has had his minutes managed this season and head coach Henrik Rydstrom is unlikely to use him here. The veteran’s absence could see 21-year-old Andrej Duric, a summer buy from Red Star Belgrade, given another chance to partner Pontus Jansson.

Football Odds

RFS have reported no issues ahead of this second leg. Star man Darmo Lemajic bagged a hat-trick at the weekend and is expected to be entrusted up front once more. That 6-2 win over Tukums saw manager Viktors Morozs use his traditional 4-2-3-1 after trying to match Malmo in a 4-4-2 in the previous game. 

This change of emphasis will likely be retained, given the failure of the 4-4-2 in the first leg and the need for goals in this second. June buy Davis Ikaunieks started the first leg alongside top scorer Lemajic, but he may be sacrificed or employed in a wider role. Expect Janis Ikaunieks, Davis’ brother, to be at the front of the queue for the number 10 role.

Malmo FF vs Rigas FS Odds

Malmo are unsurprisingly the favourites here after their goal show in the first leg. The record-setting Swedish champs are 2/7 to win on the night. An RFS upset is priced at 7/1 with a 12.5% implied probability of victory. A stalemate after 90 minutes is marketed at 4/1. 

Our 2 Up Early Payout settles at 1/4 on Malmo if they take a two-goal lead in 90 minutes.

Match Result & Both Teams To Score - Malmo @ 7/4

RFS might be underdogs, but they know where the goal is. Currently second in the Latvian league, which is topped by local rivals Riga, they have scored more than any other team in the division. 

RFS netted in the first leg and they have scored at least once in their last 19 games, dating back to a 1-0 loss to Riga back in April. I think Malmo have too much quality to be kept out on the night, but I’m backing RFS to keep their scoring run going. 

The Latvian side’s best chance is to throw everything at their illustrious opposition. I still think Malmo win on the night, but they will concede along the way.

Anytime Goalscorer: Darko Lemajic @ 11/4

Malmo are a team that spreads the workload when it comes to scoring goals. Rydstrom shuffles his attacking deck a lot, with Sead Haksabanovic, Daniel Gudjohnsen and Isaac Kiese Thelin all leading the line in recent weeks. Add in goal contributions from wingers Hugo Bolin and Emmanuel Ekong as well as midfield strikes from Lasse Berg Johnsen and Otto Rosengren and you can see why I thought picking a Malmo goalscorer was a fool’s errand. 

I would say Haksabanovic’s form suggests he could be worth backing. If I knew for sure that Gudjohnsen would start, he would be my pick. But given Malmo’s rotation policy, I am going for the talismanic striker that RFS will be relying on. 

The Serbian striker has seven goals in his last four games, is coming off a hat-trick and scored in the first leg. If RFS are competitive on the night, it will be because Lemajic is firing.

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