Luton Town vs Derby County Prediction: Hatters to keep up form at the Kenny

Luton Town will be looking to keep up their impressive recent record at Kenilworth Road when they play host to Derby County in the EFL Championship on Friday evening (20:00, Sky Sports Main Event). The Hatters are unbeaten on home soil since the start of November, claiming 11 points from a possible 15 in Bedfordshire, and should be confident of dispatching the Rams who haven't won on the road for over a month.

Read on for my Luton Town vs Derby County prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Luton's lengthy absentee list includes injured sextet Teden Mengi, Reece Burke, Alfie Doughty, Reuell Walters, Amari'i Bell and Shandon Baptiste, as well as the suspended Liam Walsh.

Football Odds

Derby County thrashed Portsmouth 4-0 at Pride Park last Friday but lost Eiran Cashin to a hamstring injury before the hour mark and will have to make do without the 23-year-old this week. On-loan Liverpool defender Nat Phillips replaced the Irishman against Pompey and is likely to fill in for him at Kenilworth Road.

David Ozoh, Ryan Nyambe and Tawanda Chiwera are also expected to miss out again.

Luton Town vs Derby County Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Luton Town vs Derby County page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Despite competing valiantly in the 2023/24 Premier League campaign and winning three of their last four games at home, Luton Town are only 11/10 to claim all three points on Friday, giving the Hatters an implied win probability of 47.6%. Newly-promoted Derby, meanwhile, are 12/5, or a 29.4% chance, to triumph for just the second time on their travels following their move up from League 1 earlier this year.

The draw is priced at 2/1, both teams to score at 10/11, and over 2.5 total goals at 6/5.

Match Result & Total Goals Over/Under 3.5 - Luton Town @ Under 3.5 @ 13/8

Luton have endured a dismal season so far on their return to the Championship and reside 19th, five places and two points below their next opponents. The Hatters have only won one of their last five games but, crucially, that was their last one at Kenilworth Road, a 2-1 victory over Stoke City on December 10, and Rob Edwards' side are unbeaten in five matches on home soil since the start of November.

The Bedfordshire club have lost three times at home this season but two of those were back-to-back in August at the beginning of the season, and the only defeat they have suffered at Kenilworth Road since the start of September was against high-fliers Sunderland (1-2) on October 23.

Derby, meanwhile, have only picked up seven points from 11 away trips, and only four clubs have collected fewer in this season's Championship. The Rams' only victory on the road came on November 6 at a struggling Coventry City (1-2), who sacked manager Mark Robins the following day.

In fairness to Paul Warne's charges, they've only lost two of their last seven away contests, and just one of their last four, holding Preston North End (1-1) and Burnley (0-0) to draws in the past month.

Still, they have their work cut out on Friday against a team that has won three of their last four at the Kenny, keeping clean sheets in the first two of those (1-0 v Cardiff City and Hull City). The Hatters have been awful on the road but they are a completely different side at home and thus justify their tag as favourites against Derby.

I'm backing Town to win this one but I don't think we'll see too many goals with nine of Luton's 11 home matches this term seeing three or fewer goals. Their last seven at the Kenny have ended with under 3.5 total goals and they've won four of those, while all 10 of Derby's away games since an opening-night defeat at Blackburn Rovers (4-2) have seen three or fewer strikes.

First Goalscorer - Elijah Adebayo (LUT) @ 9/2

Like Luton, Elijah Adebayo's demotion back to the Championship hasn't gone swimmingly, as he scored just twice in his first 17 league appearances this season.

However, after only appearing as a second-half substitute in the Hatters' 3-0 defeat at Leeds United on November 27, the 26-year-old embarked on a three-game goalscoring run that saw him net against Norwich City, Swansea and Stoke before blanking last time out at Blackburn.

Still, that's three goals in his last four matches and strikes in back-to-back home games, while he has three in his last five as a starter at the Kenny.

The Brent-born centre-forward should be confident of adding to his five-goal tally on Friday and while I wouldn't put you off backing him to net anytime at 21/10, I believe the value is in him opening the scoring at 9/2.

Adebayo scored the game's first goal in back-to-back appearances against Norwich and Swansea, striking in the 20th and 17th minute, respectively, at Carrow Road and the Kenny, and looks a nice price to open up for the third time in five.

Offers

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