Leeds vs West Brom Prediction: Hosts cruising to the title

Leeds United are now surely well on their way to securing the Championship title. After two late winners against Sunderland and Sheffield United, their lead at the top stands at five points, while they are now seven points clear of Burnley in third. Their next test comes at home to Tony Mowbray’s West Brom (12:30, Sky Sports Football), who are currently at the head of the play-off chasing teams, sitting in fifth. 

These two both finished in the top six last season, and there’s a chance they could both be playing Premier League football this time next year. Check out my Leeds vs West Brom prediction down below.

Team News

The big concern for Leeds between now and the end of the season is how they will cope, once again, without captain Ethan Ampadu. He missed the win over Sheffield United having suffered a knee cartilage injury that could see him miss the rest of the campaign. He won’t have surgery, but instead will undergo rehabilitation, with Daniel Farke suggesting he was 50/50 to feature again before the end of the campaign. 

Max Wober also remains out for the next three weeks while Patrick Bamford may not be back in action for the next month. As a result of Ampadu’s absence, Ao Tanaka will likely partner Ilia Gruev again, although Joe Rothwell is also pushing for a start. Joel Piroe scored a vital goal late on, but he could play in the number 10 role with Mateo Joseph coming in up front if Farke does decide to change things up. As long as his team are winning though, there doesn’t need to be major changes. 

For the Albion, they are going to be without two key players as both Jed Wallace and Josh Maja are out injured. Adam Armstrong will continue up front in place of Maja, while Michael Johnston and Tom Fellows are two great wingers at this level. Semi Ajayi could miss this fixture after he looked to have suffered a hamstring issue in the win over Oxford, but Kyle Bartley could start against his former club having served his three-match suspension. 

Leeds vs West Brom Odds

Leeds are priced at 1/3 to win this game, which gives them an implied win percentage of 75%. They’ve won 44 points at home this term, the highest total in the league, winning 14 of their 17 home league fixtures to date. West Brom are priced at 17/2 to get the win, while a draw can be backed at 4/1. 

Over 2.5 goals has only come in during 44% of Leeds’ matches so far which may surprise you, and that is priced at 4/5, while BTTS is 11/10. Joel Piroe is the favourite to score first at 7/2 having scored 15 so far this campaign. 

Leeds to win -1 @ 1/1

I’ll be honest, I don’t love how short Leeds are here against decent opposition. But I still think there is value to be had in backing them to win by two clear goals. Their Elland Road form is imperious, they’ve just seen off two promotion challengers and they should be full of confidence. 

So many teams have gone to Elland Road this season and left with red cheeks, and I expect nothing different here. Leeds are the best side in this division, and their exceptional squad depth means that even the absence of Ampadu doesn’t shake my belief that they will go on to win the league by a clear margin. They’ve won six in a row, and they should make it seven in style on Saturday lunchtime. 

Joel Piroe to score anytime @ 6/5

I’ll swing my bat and go for a goalscorer here. Again, not a super sexy price, but one I believe will come in. Piroe is one of the finest finishers in the division and although I still believe he could do more in terms of his all-round play, when he’s in the box with the ball it usually ends in a goal. 

His finish against Sheffield United was just outrageous, and Farke clearly loves to have him on the pitch because of his ball-striking ability. He’s got 15 goals this term, but has scored five goals in his last five matches. I’m more than happy for him to continue this blistering form at home to West Brom. 

Offers

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