Leeds United vs Plymouth Argyle Prediction: Big home win on the cards

Leeds United lost ground on league leaders Sunderland last weekend as they were held to a 0-0 draw at Bristol City. Daniel Farke’s men now sit five points behind the Black Cats and so the pressure is on for them to pick up all three points as they welcome Plymouth Argyle to Elland Road (15:00, Saturday).

Argyle looked like they were going to be on the end of another damaging defeat before they launched an unlikely comeback to rescue a 3-3 draw against Preston North End. This will be a tough test, but Wayne Rooney will be up for the fight. Below you will find my Leeds United vs Plymouth Argyle prediction with team news and betting tips. 

Team News

Ethan Ampadu could return before the end of the year for Leeds, but Ilia Gruev has now been ruled out until 2025. Largie Ramazani has been ruled out for six weeks so Dan James and Manor Solomon will attempt to make that vacant wide position their own, with the Welshman starting against Bristol City. 

Right-back Jayden Bogle is suspended having picked up five yellow cards, so we can expect Sam Byram to switch from left-back to right-back, with Junior Firpo reinstated on the left. 

Isaac Schmidt could provide a more attacking option having played three times off the bench so far this term, and he will fancy his chances of picking up more minutes in the absence of Bogle. 

Football Odds

The ongoing battle between Joel Piroe and Mateo Joseph for that number nine role looks set to continue here, with Piroe leading the line last time out in that Ashton Gate stalemate. However, Joseph’s movement could get him the nod for this one. 

After a poor showing for an hour against PNE, Rooney may choose to shake things up for this trip. Andre Gray got his first goal for the club and could come into the XI to provide a focal point up front, while Mustapha Bundu is an option out wide in place of Freddie Issaka. 

Given their shocking away form, Rooney could choose to go away from his 4-2-3-1 system, with a 5-4-1 or something similar a distinct possibility. That decision will rest on the fitness of centre-back Lewis Gibson, who missed the Preston match after picking up a thigh problem v Millwall.  

Left-back Brendan Galloway is out with an ankle injury and winger Ibrahim Cissoko is suspended so options are limited for Rooney heading to Elland Road. 

Leeds United vs Plymouth Argyle Odds

Leeds are priced at 2/11 to win this game, giving them an implied win probability of 85% heading into this one. Plymouth are available at 14/1 while a draw is priced at 6/1, which just shows the scale of the task at hand for the Pilgrims. Over 2.5 goals is 2/5 and BTTS is 1/1, while Joseph and Piroe are both priced at 4/1 to score first. 

Leeds to win to nil @ 9/10

Plymouth have yet to win on the road, scoring once in six matches. Their away record has been nothing short of abysmal and now they are arguably facing the best team in the league, in front of an Elland Road crowd baying for blood. 

Interestingly, Rooney said after their draw with Preston: "I'm angry, to be honest. That performance is nowhere near good enough. I was really disappointed for an hour of that game. It didn't look like us at all. We were easy to play against. We weren't putting tackles in, we weren't getting to the ball. I'm obviously pleased we get a point out of the game but I can't accept that performance.”

Unfortunately, I don’t think we will see a reaction simply because there is a huge gulf in class between the two squads. Even with Leeds’ injuries, they should be able to win this game and keep Plymouth at bay. 

Leeds United -3 handicap @ 16/5

With the gap in quality, I’m expecting a big home win. Leeds have had the likes of Joseph and Patrick Bamford on the bench in recent games, which just shows how much individual ability Farke has at his disposal. They should be able to win this game comfortably, and we’ve seen that Argyle’s heads can drop on the road. 

They were hammered 5-0 by Cardiff and their lack of goals in away games means they are always susceptible to a hammering. Meanwhile Leeds will want to put on a strong showing after dropping points at Bristol City, and they won’t want to let Sunderland pull away at the top of the table. Big home win incoming. 

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