Valencia vs Real Madrid Prediction: Late goals on the cards at Mestalla

Real Madrid travel to Mestalla to take on Valencia on Sunday (20:00, live on Premier Sports 1) for what was historically one of Spanish football’s biggest fixtures.

Our Spanish football expert Mark Sochon is on-hand with his Valencia vs Real Madrid predictions, including the latest odds and team news.

With Valencia deep into a long decline, this fixture is no longer as big as it once was, but the home fans still create a hostile atmosphere whenever Los Blancos come calling.

Valencia’s recent record in this fixture is still reasonably impressive, despite their current level. The last six meetings have produced three Real Madrid victories and two for Los Che.

Carlos Corberán’s side were surprise 2-1 winners at the Santiago Bernabéu last season, while Valencia last defeated the club from the capital on home soil in 2023, in a game marred by racist abuse directed at Vinícius Júnior.

The most recent encounter served up a 4-0 Real Madrid victory in November, in one of the few convincing performances they’ve produced this term. Xabi Alonso was still at the helm at that stage, and it’s fair to say the jury is still out on his successor Álvaro Arbeloa.

The new man can point to a 100% start in La Liga. It’s six straight victories overall in the league for Los Blancos, although they only scraped home last weekend, with a 100th-minute penalty from Kylian Mbappé sealing a nervy 2-1 home win against local rivals Rayo Vallecano.

Madridistas were also left deeply unimpressed by two defeats in cup competitions since the change. Arbeloa left key players out and paid the price with a 3-2 Copa del Rey loss against second-tier Albacete in his first match in charge. There was also a dismal 4-2 defeat against Benfica in the Champions League, which denied the 15-time European champions direct entry into the round of 16.

Valencia would have seen enough signs of weakness in some of those matches to believe they have a chance on Sunday night. They’re involved in the relegation battle again this season, although the same can be said of perhaps more than half the clubs in La Liga.

It’s very tight in the bottom half of the table, but things are looking brighter for Los Che than was the case a few weeks ago. Back-to-back victories over Getafe and Espanyol have helped to ease the pressure that was building on Corberán, although they have lost twice since then.

A narrow defeat at Real Betis in the league was followed by a 2-1 home loss against Athletic Club in the quarter-finals of the Copa del Rey in midweek. The ex-West Brom boss can now focus solely on the battle to avoid what would be only the club’s second ever relegation.

There’s rarely much cash to spend at Mestalla, but the board did sanction three moves in the January transfer window. Unai Núñez has arrived on loan to provide fresh cover in central defence, while Guido Rodríguez could prove a smart addition on a free transfer from West Ham, if he can rediscover the form that previously saw the 31-year-old shine in La Liga for Betis.

Striker Umar Sadiq has also rejoined the club in a €5m move from Real Sociedad. His ability to go from the sublime to the ridiculous was summed up in midweek when he scored at both ends as Valencia exited the cup.

Valencia vs Real Madrid Odds

Real Madrid are the 4/7 favourites to claim another league victory. You can back the Draw at 16/5, while Valencia are on offer at 9/2 to claim a major scalp on Sunday night.

If you like the look of the hosts, you can also back Valencia to win either half at 13/8. Corberán’s side are also priced at 5/2 to score over 1.5 goals, while Both teams to score is available at 4/6.

Alternatively, the visitors are on offer at 7/4 to win the game to nil. You can also back Real Madrid with a -1.00 Handicap at 6/4.

Mbappé looks sure to spearhead the away team’s attacking threat again. The Frenchman is in great form with seven goals in his last four appearances. He’s priced at 2/1 to score first, and 4/7 to score anytime.

From a home perspective, you can back Duro to get on the scoresheet at odds of 9/5. Meanwhile, Arnaut Danjuma is priced at 3/1 to score anytime.

Team News

First-choice goalkeeper Julen Agirrezabala is the main injury absentee for Valencia. North Macedonia number one Stole Dimitrievski is a usually reliable deputy, though.

Defenders Mouctar Diakhaby and Thierry Correia are both dealing with hamstring injuries, with new arrival Núñez pushing for a start at the back. In-form Hugo Duro should return up top having been rested in the Copa del Rey.

Real Madrid have some significant selection issues in attack heading into this game. Vinícius Júnior is suspended, while Rodrygo is also a major fitness doubt. Jude Bellingham is definitely out with a hamstring issue that is set to keep him out until March. Brahim Díaz is likely to start as a result of those issues, while Franco Mastantuono may continue on the right flank.

There’s better news at the back, with Trent Alexander-Arnold and Antonio Rüdiger available again. Éder Militão is the only remaining defensive injury absentee.

Bet Builder - Valencia over 0.5 goals & Hugo Duro 1+ shots on target @ 20/21

There are enough cracks in this Real Madrid backline to suggest Valencia will score at least once in this game. The visitors have got a number of defenders who are only just returning to fitness and aren’t at their sharpest yet, while summer signing Dean Huijsen looks short on confidence after some poor performances in recent months.

Duro is likely to be the main goal threat for the hosts. He’s really enjoying playing on home soil right now, having netted in each of his last four league appearances at Mestalla. While he’s a limited player on some levels, the ex-Getafe striker always works hard and is capable of taking advantage of the kinds of mistakes Los Blancos are currently making at the back.

Given that, I’m using the Bet Builder to back Valencia to score over 0.5 goals and Hugo Duro to have 1+ shots on target at 20/21.

Highest Scoring Half - 2nd Half @ 21/20

Valencia have made a habit of scoring late goals at home in recent weeks. They scored a 94th-minute winner against Espanyol a fortnight ago, in a match that produced four second-half goals. They’ve also scored equalisers in the 87th and 93rd minutes at home since the start of December.

Overall this season, 80% of Valencia’s home goals have come in the second half, as have 82% of the goals they’ve conceded. It seems safe to assume that they’re not going to take too many risks initially in this match, so there’s every chance it will follow their usual trend.

A rejigged Real Madrid attack may also take some time to click, but this is certainly a clash that should eventually produce goals, with anything less than three points being of little use to the visitors. I’m backing the second half to produce the most goals at 21/20.

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