Real Madrid vs Sevilla Prediction: Back Bad Boys Sevilla to see plenty of yellow

The pressure is still on Real Madrid manager Xabi Alonso and anything less than a convincing performance against mid-table Sevilla on Saturday evening (20:00) will continue to have the vultures circling. Disney+ will be broadcasting this game live in the UK.
Our La Liga Betting correspondent Mark Sochon has got the assignment for this one and take us through the Team News, Match Odds and his two Best Bets for the match. Let's check out his Real Madrid vs Sevilla Predictions here on Betfred Insights...
Real Madrid vs Sevilla Betting Tips
*odds correct at time of publication
*You can check out all the Football Odds and markets on offer with us over at betfred.com
Real Madrid play their final game of a difficult year on Saturday. They'll be expecting to sign off with a home win over Sevilla.
All eyes remain on under-pressure Xabi Alonso, despite two victories over the past seven days that have done little to change the overall situation.
The main positive last weekend was that they got through a potentially tricky away fixture against Alavés without dropping any points. Los Blancos were missing seven defenders in Vitoria, but they did a pretty good job of grinding out a victory, despite a brief wobble in the second half.
Real Madrid started that game with a front three of Vinícius Júnior, Kylian Mbappé and Rodrygo, with Alonso changing course having previously insisted he saw the latter as competition for Vinícius on the left, rather than a right-sided option. The two Brazilians combined for the winning goal in the 76th minute of a 2-1 victory.
There was also a win for Los Blancos in midweek, although a shaky 3-2 triumph over minnows Talavera in the Copa del Rey likely did more harm than good to Alonso's prospects of holding onto his job. Mbappé scored twice in that game, although the underdogs staged a late rally, and nearly forced extra time, with Andriy Lunin required to make a great save at the death.
This is another match where Alonso has little to gain, but potentially everything to lose if his side succumbs to a third straight home defeat, following recent losses against Man City and Celta Vigo.
Real Madrid have won seven of their last eight games against Sevilla, including all of the last four in the Spanish capital. They've little reason to fear them any more this season, although the Andalusians were impressive 4-0 winners at home to Real Oviedo last weekend.
A poor run of form had seen Matías Almeyda's side slide to just two points above the relegation zone prior to that. Their stunning 4-1 triumph over Barcelona in September was starting to feel like an increasingly distant memory. However, they were rarely troubled last time out, and are back in the top half ahead of a free hit at the Santiago Bernabéu.
Mid-table was about as good as it was ever likely to get for Los Nervionenses this term after they cashed in on key players Loïc Badé and Dodi Lukébakio in the summer.
Their summer arrivals consisted solely of loanees and free transfers. César Azpilicueta and Alexis Sánchez were the standout names, but left-back Gabriel Suazo, goalkeeper Odysseas Vlachodimos and midfielder Batista Mendy have all had bigger roles to play since completing summer moves to the Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán.
All things considered, Almeyda deserves credit for making this team competitive, following a 17th-place finish last term. However, this is still perhaps the most limited squad Sevilla have had since they returned to the top flight way back in 2001.
Team News:
Real Madrid's defensive selection issues have eased slightly since last weekend. Fran García returns from suspension, and may be preferred to youngster Víctor Valdepeñas at left-back. However, Álvaro Carreras, Dani Carvajal, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Éder Militão, and Ferland Mendy are still struggling with injuries.
The hosts have additional fitness doubts over Fede Valverde and Eduardo Camavinga. Alonso may opt to stick with the same midfield and attack that started against Alavés last Sunday.
As for Sevilla, they are also dealing with a couple of problems at the back, with Azpilicueta and Tanguy Nianzou both sidelined with injuries. Rubén Vargas, who has been their most impactful attacking player this season, is also out.
The visitors will also need to cope without Nigerian duo Chidera Ejuke and Akor Adams, who are both on AFCON duty.
Real Madrid vs Sevilla Predicted Lineups
- Real Madrid: Courtois, Valverde, Asencio, Huijsen, F. Garcia, Guler, Tchouameni, Bellingham, Rodrygo, Mbappe, Vinicius
- Sevilla: Vlachodimos, Carmona, Cardoso, Gudelj, Castrin, Oso, Agoume, Sow, Mendy, Romero, A. Sanchez
Real Madrid are priced at 1/5 to win this game and ease some pressure on their under-fire boss. Sevilla are available at 11/1, while you can back the Draw at 6/1.
It's a convincing victory that Alonso really needs heading into a short winter break. If you fancy his team to deliver, Real Madrid -2.00 Handicap is priced at 7/5. You can also back Los Blancos to score over 3.5 goals at 7/4.
Alternatively, Sevilla are available at 5/4 with a +2.00 Handicap. You can back the visitors to score over 0.5 goals at 8/11, while you can get 4/5 for Both teams to score.
Mbappé is by far and away the most likely scorer in this game. He's priced at 13/8 to score first, and 6/1 to register three or more goals. You can also back the Frenchman to score from outside the area at 15/4.
Rodrygo also looks good at 13/8 to get on the scoresheet again after goals in each of his last two starts. From a visiting perspective, you can back Isaac Romero to score anytime at 3/1.
Real Madrid vs Sevilla Stats
- Kylian Mbappe (4.50) has nearly 1.5 more shots on average than Sevilla's top player in that category - Akor Adams (2.97).
- Real Madrid (6.65) average more than double Sevilla (3.19) in terms of Shots on Target/90 minutes.
Bet 1 - Under 3.5 goals @ 10/11
Sevilla's gameplan is likely to be very similar to Celta Vigo's successful approach in their 2-0 win on this ground a fortnight ago. The Andalusians are also expected to set up with three centre-backs and pack central areas of the pitch. They'll do their best to get balls over the top for their forwards to chase.
Overall, Sevilla don't have as much attacking quality as Real Madrid's recent Bernabéu opponents. However, they do have a really energetic midfield that's capable of offering protection to their defence. With the hosts still lacking fluency and looking dependent on Mbappé in attack, I'm backing Under 3.5 goals at 10/11.
Odds correct at time of publishing.
Bet 2 - Sevilla -5.00 Booking Points @ 8/11
Sevilla had two players sent off in the opening hour when they last played Real Madrid in May. They've done a much better job of avoiding unnecessary red cards this term, with only one in 16 league matches.
However, they have made a clear shift towards a more physical, combative style across the pitch. That has contributed to 51 yellow cards being shown to Sevilla players. That's 10 more than any other club has received in the Spanish top flight this term.
José Ángel Carmona and Lucien Agoumé have been the two biggest culprits, with seven yellows each. Both players should start this game, and I can see real value in backing Sevilla -5.00 Booking Points at 8/11.
Odds correct at time of publishing.
Mark Sochon P/L 25/26 Season:
- Points Staked: 122
- Points Returned: 116.90
- P/L: -5.1
You can check out Mark's Football Betting Tips along with those from the rest of the Betfred Insights Spanish Football writers on our La Liga home page...






















