Real Madrid vs Elche Prediction: Madrid to win but no Clean Sheet

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Real Madrid return to league action with Elche visiting the Santiago Bernabéu. They've been greeted by jeers in many of their recent home fixtures, but the mood should be altogether brighter this weekend after by far their best performance of the season to date. 

A first-half Fede Valverde hat-trick inspired a 3-0 win over Manchester City on Wednesday in the Champions League. Álvaro Arbeloa deserves credit for getting his tactics right on the night, and making the best of the relatively limited resources that were available to him against the Premier League side. 

With a number of regulars missing, 18-year-old Thiago Pitarch started in midfield, and the all-action Valverde regularly found space in behind the City defence, as Pep Guardiola's side crumbled in the Spanish capital once more. 

Valverde was one of the primary targets for the Bernabéu boo boys earlier this year, but he has certainly come good over the past week. The Uruguayan also netted a 95th-minute winner in Real Madrid's last league game against Celta Vigo, as they bounced back from successive defeats in the Spanish top flight with a very important three points. 

Time will tell whether the last two results mark a genuine turning point. They'd looked short on quality and ideas in their previous matches, with expectation levels in Madrid at their lowest level in many years heading into the Champions League knockout phase. 

At the very least, Los Blancos should now have something to fight for when they return from the March international break. As far as their league title hopes go, there remains little margin for error, though. They trail Barcelona by four points heading into this match, with the Madrid derby to come next weekend. 

On the surface, Elche should not pose too many problems for Arbeloa's side. They've not won any of their 11 matches so far in 2026, with seven of those games ending in defeat. That has resulted in what initially looked like one of the most promising seasons we've seen from a newly-promoted side in La Liga rapidly turning into a real scrap for survival. 

For better or worse, Eder Sarabia continues to persist with a possession-based approach. His team are averaging a 59.2% share of the ball in the Spanish top flight this term. Only Barcelona and Real Madrid can better that. 

Los Franjiverdes competed well in the reverse fixture in December, which ended 2-2 at the Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero. They are still scoring relatively frequently, but defensively they've been much less convincing, with at least two goals conceded in eight of their last nine matches. 

It was two former Real Madrid academy players who got their goals when these clubs last met. This will be a special afternoon for Álvaro Rodríguez and Aleix Febas, with the latter perhaps the pick of Elche's players this term. The 30-year-old is perfectly suited to their ball-playing style and is often involved in their best moves. 

Team News: 

We may see some rotation from Arbeloa ahead of the second leg against Man City, but his options are limited by selection issues across the pitch. 

There are nine absentees for the home team. Éder Militão, Kylian Mbappé, Jude Bellingham, Rodrygo, Dani Ceballos, Ferland Mendy, Álvaro Carreras and David Alaba are sidelined with injuries, while Franco Mastantuono is suspended. 

Gonzalo García, Raúl Asencio, Fran García and Eduardo Camavinga are among the players who could come in. 

As for Elche, Héctor Fort and John Chetauya are the only absentees, with both players suffering from injuries. They usually set up with a 3-5-2 system, with Álvaro, Rafa Mir and André Silva competing for the two starting roles. 

Given his team's poor form and the difficulty of this fixture, Sarabia may opt for changes to solidify his midfield. Martim Neto and Gonzalo Villar are pushing for recalls.