Barcelona vs Athletic Bilbao Prediction: Back Barca to win a low-scoring Supercopa Semi

| Wednesday 7th January 2026, 6:01am

Wednesday 7th January 2026, 6:01am

It is off to Saudi Arabia we go for the Spanish Supercopa once more as four teams battle it out for the trophy. The first semi-final sees Barcelona face Athletic Bilbao. TNT Sports have the rights for this tournament and will be showing the match live on TNT Sports 1. Kick-off is set for 19:00 on Wednesday evening.

Our La Liga Betting correspondent Mark Sochon has got the assignment for this one and take us through the Team News, Match Odds and his two Best Bets for the match. Let's check out his Barcelona vs Athletic Bilbao Predictions here on Betfred Insights...

Barcelona vs Athletic Bilbao Betting Tips

Barcelona to win & Under 3.5 goals @ 6/4
Barcelona to have over 13.5 shots & Fermín López 1+ shots on target @ 5/6 via Bet Builder

*odds correct at time of publication

Sports Welcome Offer

New customers only. Deposit via Debit Card & place first bet £10+ (1/1+) on Sports in 7 days. £30 Sports & £20 Acca Free Bets within 10 hrs of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility, payment excl. & T&Cs Apply.

Sports Welcome Offer

*You can check out all the Football Odds and markets on offer with us over at betfred.com

The Supercopa de España kicks off on Wednesday night. Saudi Arabia is hosting the tournament for the sixth time, with Barcelona taking on Athletic Club in the first semi-final.

While this is now an established part of the Spanish football calendar, the venue continues to stir up debate. Athletic captain Iñaki Williams was very critical of the decision to play these matches in Saudi Arabia last week, and he's not the first player who has spoken out about it.

For Barça, the tournament has two primary purposes. For starters, it's a lucrative week from a financial perspective at a time when any extra revenue is welcome as they tread a fine line in terms of breaking La Liga's strict salary limits. It's also a chance to win the first piece of silverware on offer to Spanish clubs in the 2025/26 season.

Hansi Flick has a 100% record in terms of winning domestic trophies since becoming the Barcelona boss in 2024. His team defeated Athletic Club 2-0 at this stage of the Supercopa 12 months ago, before beating Real Madrid 5-2 in the final.

A potentially identical path awaits one year on, and Barça head into the competition in much better form than was the case last January. They've won all of their last eight matches in all competitions. That leaves them in better shape than the other three clubs who are vying for this title.

It wasn't exactly convincing from Flick's side at the weekend, though. They were second best for long periods in their Catalan derby against Espanyol, with Joan García making some exceptional saves to deny his old team. It was a match they could easily have lost, but Barça weathered the storm and ultimately won 2-0 thanks to late strikes from Dani Olmo and Robert Lewandowski.

As for Athletic, they also warmed up for this match with a local derby, drawing 1-1 at El Sadar against Osasuna. Gorka Guruzeta fired in a second-half equaliser for Ernesto Valverde's side, who have endured a disappointing campaign so far.

Los Leones are down in eighth place in La Liga, with a miserable return of just 17 goals from 19 matches. Injuries have played a role in their struggles, but even when fit, the likes of Nico Williams and Oihan Sancet have rarely produced their best football.

Sancet scored 15 times in the league last term from an advanced midfield role, but has only netted once so far this season. Meanwhile, the younger of the two Williams brothers has only occasionally looked like the player that shone at Euro 2024 for Spain.

The loss of form of goalkeeper Unai Simón has also been a concern. The Spain number one was at fault again as Rubén García scored from long range for Osasuna on Saturday. The spotlight will really be on the 28-year-old in this fixture, at a time when many are calling for his opposite number Joan García to replace him in goal for the national team.

Team News:

Gavi and Andreas Christensen are the only injury absentees for Barcelona. Ronald Araújo is part of the travelling party for the trip to Saudi Arabia, with the Uruguayan back after taking a mental health break in December.

Flick is likely to rotate in some positions following a gruelling derby clash. Their weekend goals were both scored and assisted by substitutes. Olmo, Lewandowski and Fermín López are all pushing for recalls as a result. Meanwhile, Pedri could take Frenkie de Jong's place in midfield, after the Spain international only made the bench at the RCDE Stadium.

Athletic have taken a 25-man party to Jeddah for what they hope will be two matches. Maroan Sannadi, Beñat Prados, Aymeric Laporte, and Yuri Berchiche are absent due to injuries.

Valverde isn't expected to make major changes to the side that started on Saturday. Robert Navarro and Álex Berenguer are the main options should he decide to mix things up in attack.

Barcelona vs Athletic Bilbao Predicted Lineups

Barcelona: J. Garcia, Kounde, Cubarsi, Martin, Balde, E. Garcia, De Jong, Raphinha, Pedri, Yamal, Torres
Athletic Bilbao: Simon, Gorosabel, Vivian, Paredes, Boiro, Ruiz de Galarreta, Jauregizar, I. Williams, Sancet, N. Williams, Guruzeta

Match Odds:

Barcelona start their Supercopa defence as the 1/2 favourites to win their semi-final in 90 minutes. Athletic are priced at 5/1. Meanwhile, the Draw is on offer at 7/2, with penalties to take place in that eventuality, after extra time was scrapped ahead of this season's competition.

You can back the favourites to win to nil at 13/8. Barça are also priced at 9/10 to score in both halves, while you can back them to score over 2.5 goals at 11/8.

Both teams to score is priced at 8/13. You can get odds of 9/4 for Athletic to score over 1.5 goals, while the underdogs are on offer at 7/4 to win either half.

Lewandowski, who stands a good chance of being preferred to Ferran up front, is the 11/4 favourite to score first. He's also priced at 4/5 to score anytime, while you can back Raphinha to get on the scoresheet at 23/20.

Nico Williams is on offer at 3/1 to score anytime against the club that has tried to sign him in each of the last two summers. Meanwhile, you can back Sancet to register a goal at 11/4.

*You can bet on and check out all of our Barcelona vs Athletic Bilbao Odds with our full betting markets on betfred.com

Barcelona vs Athletic Bilbao Stats

Barcelona have won the Supercopa on 15 occasions. More than anyone else.
Athletic Bilbao have won the Supercopa on three occasions. Only Barcelona (15) and Real Madrid (13) have won the trophy more.
Lionel Messi has scored the most goals in the Supercopa with 14, double that of the second-most (Raul & Benzema - both with seven).

Bet 1 - Barcelona to win & Under 3.5 goals @ 6/4

While they had their goalkeeper to thank for their clean sheet on Saturday night, there are now clear signs that Barcelona have tightened up defensively. With Eric García operating in midfield, and dropping deep to protect the back four at times, they've reeled off four straight 2-0 wins in all competitions.

This also has the potential to be a relatively low-scoring contest by the standards of their season overall. Athletic are likely to set up relatively cautiously, and they'll take inspiration from holding PSG to a 0-0 draw in the Champions League last month.

However, it's hard to see the Basques holding firm for 90 minutes against the likes of Lamine Yamal. At the other end, their attacking players are not offering enough to suggest they are going to seriously exploit the weak spots in the opposing defence. Given that, I'm backing Barça to win and Under 3.5 goals at 6/4.

Bet 2 - Barcelona to have over 13.5 shots & Fermín López 1+ shots on target @ 5/6 via Bet Builder

Athletic are not playing at a high enough level to suggest they are going to make much impression at a tournament that features all of Spain's "big three". Even their backline has looked less solid this term, after conceding fewer goals than any other team in La Liga 2024/25.

They're likely to have to sustain spells of heavy pressure in this match against a Barcelona side that has had at least 15 shots in each of their last eight outings.

Aside from the obvious threats, a fresh Fermín should have a big role to play. The 22-year-old could be rewarded with a start after coming off the bench to assist two goals against Espanyol. He's also averaging 1.56 shots on target per 90 minutes in the league, which is more than Yamal, Raphinha and Marcus Rashford.

Given that, I can see value in backing Barcelona to have over 13.5 shots and Fermín to have 1+ shots on target at 5/6.

2 Up Early Payout

Pre-Match Football bets on the 2 Up Early Payout market in selected games. Paid as a winner within 5 minutes if your team goes 2 goals ahead. Selected leagues only. 90 mins only. T&Cs Apply.

Sports Welcome Offer

Mark Sochon P/L 25/26 Season:

Points Staked: 130
Points Returned: 124.88
P/L: -5.12

You can check out Mark's Football Betting Tips along with those from the rest of the Betfred Insights Spanish Football writers on our La Liga home page...