Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Prediction: Expect Penalties in Second Supercopa Semi

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The second semi-final in the Spanish Supercopa is a Madrid derby. The winners will progress into Sunday's final in Jeddah, and we'll head straight to penalties if the game is level after 90 minutes. 

That wasn't the case two years ago when the teams last met in this competition under the old rules. On that occasion, the Spanish capital's big two played out a thrilling 3-3 draw in regulation time, before Joselu and Brahim Díaz struck late in extra time to seal victory for Los Blancos. 

There were also plenty of goals in the only previous meeting this season. That was at the Estadio Metropolitano in September in a game that saw Atlético Madrid defy the formbook to win 5-2. They were good value for the win, with Julián Alvarez scoring a brace to continue his fine record against Real. 

That result ended a 100% start to the season for Xabi Alonso's side. While they responded well with six straight victories immediately following that, the Basque coach still finds himself fighting for his job heading into this competition. 

After a very unconvincing end to 2025, Real Madrid at least made a positive start to the new year. They scored five for the first time this term in La Liga at home against a Real Betis side that has given them problems in the recent past. That was all the more surprising given the win came without the injured Kylian Mbappé, on whom they've been so dependent for goals throughout Alonso's brief reign to date. 

It was a dream afternoon for homegrown youngster Gonzalo García, who scored a brilliant hat-trick for his first strikes since the Club World Cup last summer. Rodrygo also shone, with two assists for the Brazilian, who appears to be back in favour. 

It was a less enjoyable day for Vinícius Júnior, though. The forward was jeered by sections of the Bernabéu for the second match in a row when he was replaced, with his goal drought extending to 15 games in all competitions. 

That result, combined with Barcelona's win and their own 1-1 draw at Real Sociedad, made it another bad weekend for Atlético Madrid. They are now 11 points off the top of the table at the midway point, and surely out of serious title contention. 

Given that, Diego Simeone will be keen to target the cups over the remainder of the campaign. His team haven't won a trophy since they last won La Liga in the 2020/21 season, while you have to go back to 2014 for the most recent of their two previous Supercopa wins. 

Atleti's issues this season have again largely been away from home. They've won 11 straight matches in front of their own fans, but they've shown very little attacking quality on their travels. 

Alvarez has been emblematic of that issue. The 25-year-old hasn't scored away in La Liga since the opening day of the season, and too often fails to live up to his billing as the star player in this squad. He has been used in a front two alongside Alexander Sørloth in recent weeks, and that may continue here given the problems the powerful Norwegian caused for Real Madrid's backline in the derby earlier this term. 

Team News: 

The big team news is that Mbappé has been officially ruled out of the Supercopa and hasn't travelled to Saudi Arabia. Real Madrid didn't miss him much at the weekend, and Alonso may field an unchanged lineup following a much improved display against Betis. 

Trent Alexander-Arnold has been included in the squad for this trip, but is not expected to play any part on Thursday. Los Blancos are also missing the injured Éder Militão, while Brahim is still on AFCON duty with Morocco. 

As for Atlético Madrid, they'll have to cope without the injured duo of Clément Lenglet and Nico González. Midfielder Pablo Barrios is also a major fitness doubt, but he has travelled to Jeddah. Conor Gallagher and Johnny Cardoso are the most obvious candidates to replace him.