Italy vs Albania Bet Builder Tips: Value in Dortmund stalemate

Italy are the current holders of the European Championship trophy, having beaten England on their own patch just three years ago. After failing to qualify for the World Cup in Qatar, this feels like a team that is caught in transition and is unlikely to hit the heights they experienced a few years ago. 

Their first game is a seemingly straightforward one on paper, as they take on group minnows Albania (Saturday 20:00, BBC). Sylvinho’s side are playing in their second Euros, having been knocked out in the group stage in 2016, and are looking to cause a shock in the group of death.

Italy vs Albania Odds

Draw

I don’t fancy Italy at all in this tournament, and I actually think they could struggle in this opening game. With Spain and Croatia also in their group, this is likely to be the game both teams have targeted to pick up maximum points in a bid to qualify. Italy are the short favourites to win this game, but I don’t see it happening in truth, and Albania will fancy their chances of coming out of the game with a point. 

Italy have drawn 0-0 with Turkey, and beat Bosnia-Herzegovina 1-0 in the build-up to this tournament, so don’t expect this game to be packed full of goals, and with Albania’s stubborn defensive mentality, the underdogs could escape with a draw. Italy are lacking the attacking talent we have seen in previous squads and they will once again be relying on Federico Chiesa to produce the goods. 

However, aside from that, they could stagnate in a 3-4-3 system, given the pressure is huge on them to win this game. I think we could see a stalemate between these two teams, a result that would be a massive boost to both Croatia and Spain. 

Under 2.5 goals

I’m not expecting many goals at all in this one, and this selection covers both a 0-0 and a 1-1 draw. Luciano Spalletti is now in charge and has guided Italy to this tournament, which must be counted as a success after two World Cup failures. He’s won six of his 10 games in charge so far, but his side haven’t been that entertaining to watch, and lost home and away to England in qualifying. 

I think this will be a frustrating evening for Italy, and Albania will be more than happy to waste time and try and kill this game. The underdogs have actually scored a decent number of goals of late, albeit against lowly opposition. A 0-0 feels like the most likely outcome in my eyes, but I’ll back under 2.5 goals to give us a bit of leeway. 

Euro 2024 Odds

Over 7.5 corners

I think this is a sensible bar to aim for in terms of corners, as Italy should have the majority of possession and try and break down Albania in a number of different ways. They will have to get shots off at some point and as a result, I believe they will amass a decent number of corners. They had 10 against Bosnia-Herzegovina and there were nine in total in their game against Turkey, which was a 0-0 draw.

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