Inter Milan vs Barcelona Prediction: Raphinha to star at San Siro

Inter Milan and Barcelona face off at San Siro in Italy on Tuesday night (20:00, live on Prime Video), with their Champions League semi-final level at 3-3 after a thrilling first leg.

Read on for Spanish football expert Mark Sochon's Inter Milan vs Barcelona predictions, complete with the latest odds and team news.

Barça headed into this tie as the favourites to progress to a first European final in a decade. However, it took Inter just 30 seconds to stun the Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys last Wednesday, with Marcus Thuram’s sublime finish silencing the home crowd.

When Denzel Dumfries added a second on 21 minutes, it looked a long way back for the Catalans against an Inter side that had conceded just five goals in their 12 Champions League matches this season heading into the last four.

Lamine Yamal had other ideas, with the teenager’s brilliant solo goal swiftly halving the deficit, and Barça were level by the break thanks to a strike from Ferran Torres.

A breathless second half served up a goal apiece, with Dumfries heading in his second of the game, before Raphinha’s free-kick found the back of the net via a combination of crossbar and Yann Sommer in the Inter goal. That all sets up an intriguing second leg at San Siro.

All things considered, Simone Inzaghi will be the happier of the two coaches, despite his side’s failure to defend a two-goal advantage in Barcelona. Inter had lost three matches on the bounce heading into that game, with their treble dreams going up in smoke, after a derby defeat to AC Milan in the Coppa Italia, and league defeats against Roma and Bologna.

Inzaghi at least got a response in the biggest game of their season to date, and he’d have been particularly encouraged by his side’s ability to pose problems on the flanks.

With their first choice full-backs both missing again on Tuesday, Barça could be vulnerable in that department once more, and the hosts will be hoping to get Dumfries involved in the game as much as possible after he had a hand in all three goals last week.

Unsurprisingly, both teams rotated heavily at the weekend. Inter got the job done, with Kristjan Asllani’s early penalty sealing a 1-0 win at home to Verona in Serie A, while Barcelona came from behind to win 2-1 at bottom club Real Valladolid in La Liga.

Hansi Flick had to call upon some of his stars a bit earlier than he’d have liked in that game. Lamine Yamal came on in just the 38th minute to replace injured debutant Dani Rodríguez. Raphinha was also introduced at the break and it was the Brazilian who sparked the comeback with a 54th-minute goal.

That was Barça’s 13th win in the space of 14 matches in the league. Having already clinched the Copa del Rey by beating Real Madrid in Seville the weekend before last, they can take a huge step towards a potential treble over the next few days, with El Clásico taking place again in La Liga this Sunday.

The Champions League is unquestionably going to be the most difficult piece of the puzzle. Barça fans have no shortage of painful memories of second-leg collapses in the knockout stage of this competition, from last season’s quarter-final against PSG to Anfield in 2019.

This is the club’s biggest European game since their trip to Merseyside six years ago, and it’s an opportunity for a new generation of Barcelona stars to write a piece of their own history.

Inter Milan vs Barcelona Odds

Barcelona are the second-leg favourites at 6/5 to win the game inside 90 minutes, and are priced at 4/6 to win the tie. You can back the Draw at 13/5, while Inter are priced at 15/8 to win in regulation time, and 11/10 to progress to the final in Munich.

If you’re expecting the goals to flow again, you can back Over 3.5 goals at 1/1. Inter are priced at 15/8 to score in both halves, while Barça are available at 6/4 in the same market, with those two bets both landing in the first leg.

Inzaghi’s side are available at 21/20 to score first again following their explosive start last week. You can also back the first goal in the game to come in the opening 10 minutes at 5/2.

Free-scoring Barcelona are priced at 4/6 to score over 1.5 goals in this match, while you can back the visitors to win and both teams to score at 11/5.

Both teams are hoping to have their main strikers available to play at least some part in this game, and you can back Lewandowski to score anytime at 11/10, while Martínez is available at 11/8 to get on the scoresheet.

You can also back Lamine Yamal to score anytime at 23/10, while Marcus Thuram is priced at 13/8 in the same market, with both players hoping to add to their first-leg goals.

Team News

Inter were expecting to be missing defender Benjamin Pavard and striker Lautaro Martínez for the second leg of this tie due to injuries, but they’ve received positive news on both fronts since the weekend which suggests the duo could yet be involved.

Martínez sustained a hamstring injury in Barcelona last week, but should lead the line alongside Thuram again if passed fit, with Inter set to line up in a 3-5-2 system once more.

The visitors are also hoping to have their main striker available. Robert Lewandowski has been out injured since his team’s 4-3 comeback win against Celta Vigo last month, but is part of the travelling party for the trip to Italy. It remains doubtful whether he’ll be deemed fit enough to start the game.

Barça will be missing young midfielders Marc Casadó and Marc Bernal again, but their main area of concern heading into this match is at full-back.

The dependable Jules Koundé is definitely sidelined, while the game is also likely to come too soon for the injured Alejandro Balde. Flick may persist with 23-year-old Gerard Martín at left-back, but central defenders Eric García, Iñigo Martínez and Ronald Araújo are alternative options for the full-back roles should he decide a bit more experience is needed.

Bet Builder - Denzel Dumfries 2+ shots @ 13/10

Inter caused big problems on their right flank with Dumfries in the first leg, and the Dutchman is also likely to see plenty of the ball on Tuesday night. Without Balde, Barcelona don’t really have a convincing option at left-back, with Gerard Martín looking out of his depth at times at this level.

They could move one of their central defenders across to the position for this game, but that’s not an ideal solution either, so Dumfries is capable of having a big influence once more.

The 29-year-old has had two or more shots in 11 of his 20 appearances in all competitions since the turn of the year. He has also scored 13 goals this season, some going for a wing-back, and I’m backing Dumfries to have 2+ shots in this game 13/10.

Raphinha to score anytime @ 6/4

Raphinha is having an exceptional season for Barcelona in front of goal, and he has tended to save his very best performances for the Champions League. 12 of his 31 goals have come in the competition, and that’s excluding his blistering free-kick six days ago which went down as a Sommer own goal.

The Brazilian averages a goal every 92 minutes in Europe this season, and he has either scored or assisted in seven of his last eight Champions League games.

The ex-Leeds man has consistently delivered in the big matches, and given there are doubts over the extent of Martínez and Lewandowski’s participation in this match, backing Raphinha looks the most appealing option in the anytime goalscorer market at 6/4.

Offers

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