Football Betting Tips: Mark’s La Liga picks for Matchday 14

Our Spanish football expert Mark Sochon has outlined some of his best fancies for the weekend's action.

Football Odds

Getafe vs Real Valladolid - Bet Builder - Under 2.5 goals and Getafe over 4.5 corners @ 6/5

La Liga returns with a Friday night relegation six pointer, between two teams who will already be bracing themselves for a real scrap for survival this season. Getafe have only won once so far and they’re only outside the bottom three on goal difference, but they’re still a point better off than newly promoted Real Valladolid.

Of the two, Getafe look the team more likely to survive, but they are struggling badly in the final third of the pitch. While they’ve been pretty competitive in the middle of the park with Luis Milla and Mauro Arambarri, they have offered very little in attack and are averaging just 0.62 goals per game, the worst record in La Liga.

They still haven’t managed to get last season’s top scorer, 15-goal Borja Mayoral, fit following issues that have hampered him throughout 2024. The 27-year-old has been ruled out again for this game and a Getafe side that has had 18 attempts in their last two games, but only hit the target twice without scoring, may once more struggle to turn opportunities into goals.

Chances should come their way against what is statistically La Liga’s worst defence. However, Real Valladolid have tightened up a bit since conceding 10 goals across two games on matchdays four and five. They’ve not let in more than two in any of their nine competitive fixtures since then and that record should remain intact against this misfiring Getafe side.

Their last two matches have been quite tight, with a 1-0 defeat at Osasuna followed by a 1-1 home draw against Athletic Club, when a 94th-minute goal from visiting striker Gorka Guruzeta denied them a precious three points that would have moved them out of the relegation zone.

They’re showing enough to at least suggest they will be competitive here, but Getafe are playing reasonably well at home without finishing teams off, and they’ve won five or more corners in three of their last four games overall.

With a tight game expected, I’m using the Bet Builder to back Under 2.5 goals & Getafe over 4.5 corners at 6/5.

La Liga Odds

Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo Alaves - Atletico Madrid -1 @ 21/20

On many levels, it has been a disappointing start to the season for Atletico Madrid, both in terms of their performance levels and some poor results in both La Liga and the Champions League. However, there is certainly more to come from Diego Simeone’s side and they put a decent run together before the international break, winning four on the bounce in all competitions.

They will certainly expect to make that five on Saturday, at home against an Alavés side that has lost six of their last seven overall in La Liga, as well as six of their seven away league games this term.

Worryingly for their boss Luis Garcia, the defensive foundations that served them well last term as they comfortably beat the drop on their top-flight return, appear to have disappeared. Only Real Valladolid have conceded more goals and there have been 3-0 defeats against Villarreal and Barcelona, within the space of their last six games, while even previously winless Getafe beat them 2-0.

This is therefore a really good opportunity for Atleti to close in on Barcelona and Real Madrid at the top. Talisman Antoine Griezmann should be fresh and raring to go given his recent international retirement, while Los Rojiblancos also have Marcos Llorente available again after a lengthy absence.

Llorente was a real attacking threat on the right flank earlier in the campaign, and his injury, along with the loss of centre-back Robin Le Normand, certainly contributed to a dip in form.

Promising young midfielder Pablo Barrios, who made his Spain debut against Switzerland on Monday, has also shaken off his recent issues and is likely to start in the centre of the pitch here. Overall, the home team should have enough quality to win by at least two goals, something they’ve managed to do on their last two league outings at the Estadio Metropolitano.

Therefore, I’m backing Atlético Madrid -1.00 Handicap at 21/20.

Osasuna vs Villarreal - Bet Builder - Osasuna or draw and over 1.5 goals @ 17/20

This is shaping up to be one of the most interesting games this weekend in Spain. Fifth-placed Osasuna are enjoying a really good season so far, and they’re looking to move level on points with Villarreal in fourth with a victory on Sunday.

Osasuna have blown hot and cold at times, and they really didn’t play well at the Santiago Bernabeu a fortnight ago, collapsing to a 4-0 defeat. However, they’ve been really strong at home this term, winning five out of seven at El Sadar, including a stunning 4-2 victory over leaders Barcelona.

Only Real Madrid have collected more home points than the Navarrese side this season which is a measure of the task facing Villarreal here. It’s one that will be all the more difficult for the visitors given they have lost forward Ayoze Perez to another injury.

Perez has been a revelation for the Yellow Submarine since moving from Real Betis in the summer, scoring seven times in La Liga at an average of a strike every 74 minutes.

Villarreal’s excellent away record is largely down to his late interventions, with the former Leicester and Newcastle man scoring Stoppage Time winners in 2-1 triumphs at Sevilla and Mallorca. He also netted an 84th-minute goal to seal a 2-1 win for his side at Real Valladolid at the end of last month, as well as both goals in a 2-1 victory at Espanyol.

His absence is therefore a really significant one, but we should still get goals with the likes of Bryan Zaragoza, Ante Budimir, Alex Baena and Thierno Barry expected to start.

Every single Villarreal match this season has served up at least two goals, while Osasuna have been scoring freely at home, with 13 of their 17 strikes this season coming in front of their own fans.

Given that, I’m using the Bet Builder to back Osasuna or Draw and Over 1.5 goals at 17/20.

Offers

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Mark Sochon primarily covers Spanish Football for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out Mark's La Liga Betting Tips along with those from the rest of the Betfred Insights Spanish Football writers on our La Liga home page...