Football Bet of the Day: AZ to stand firm on home soil

The league phase of the Uefa Conference League draws to a close on Thursday and one of the teams hoping to sneak into the top eight and seal their place in the round of 16 is AZ Alkmaar, who host Jagiellonia Bialystok at AFAS Stadion (20:00 GMT, discovery+).

It is from this contest that I have selected my Football Bet of the Day, which you can check out below.

AZ vs Jagiellonia Bialystok Odds

AZ have won three of their five league phase appearances so far, and they are 8/15 to win this clash.

Jagiellonia Bialystok have experienced two draws in their five outings, and the stalemate is valued at 10/3, while the visitors are 5/1 to come away with the victory.

The wider expectation is a home win here, but at 8/15, that is not good enough for our Bet of the Day. So I've taken it up a level by backing AZ to win to nil at 7/4.

This has been a winning selection in both of their home appearances in the league phase so far - 1-0 versus Slovan Bratislava and 2-0 versus Shelbourne.

Recording a third on Thursday will be difficult as the visitors have scored in all five matches in the league phase to date and have drawn both of their two away trips so far.

So, an AZ victory with BTTS - Yes attached is also an appealing market at 15/8, but I am backing the Dutch hosts to record another shutout. They have stood firm defensively when playing in Alkmaar in Europe, and while their opponents may pose a threat, I think they may struggle inside the AFAS Stadion as the home team are yet to be breached here in the league phase.

Yes, it may only be two games, but it's made that much more important as this is the final game of the league phase, and AZ are hoping to push their way into the top eight and bypass a two-legged play-off to reach the round of 16.

De Kaasboeren have also won and kept clean sheets in four of the six matches they played in the qualifying rounds for this season's Conference League, while they have also achieved victory by this method three times in the Eredivisie.

Surprisingly, those league successes came away from home, but in Europe, they have been making the AFAS a fortress. The players will be fired up for this battle as a direct route to the round of 16 is not to be stiffed at, and there will be a desire to avoid a nervy two-legged play-off to get there the alternative way.

A player who will be determined to get up and running for goals is striker Troy Parrott. He was prolific in qualifying with seven goals in five appearances, but nothing has landed for him yet in the league phase.

The forward has eight goals in 10 Eredivisie appearances this term, and he was also the Republic of Ireland's hat-trick hero in Hungary to seal their play-off spot in the Uefa World Cup qualifiers. This is a clash that has big stakes; maybe that's what can spark him into life again in Europe.

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