Fluminense vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction: Card pick and goals expected

The Club World Cup sparked into life late last night as Boca Juniors and Benfica went toe-to-toe, and we should have another entertaining clash on our hands as Fluminense face Borussia Dortmund at the Metlife Stadium (17:00, Channel 5). 

Group F looks wide open, with these two arguably the two strongest contenders, and so top spot could be up for grabs in this opener. Read on for my Fluminense vs Borussia Dortmund predictions.

Team News

It will be good to see Fluminense captain Thiago Silva back in action at the heart of their defence. He is likely to play alongside Juan Freytes, and in front of a midfield trio of Thiago Santos, Nonato and Matheus Martinelli. 

Facundo Bernal and Ganso are also options in the middle while Jhon Arias is a serious attacking talent to watch out for from the right wing. At the top end of the pitch, Keno and Kevin Serna are experienced forwards, while Everaldo recently joined from Bahia and should lead the line. 

Fluminense Club World Cup Preview

Borussia Dortmund should line up in their 3-4-3 formation under Niko Kovac, with Niklas Sule, Waldemar Anton and Ramy Bensebaini likely to play in front of Gregor Kobel. Emre Can and Nico Schlotterbeck are currently out injured which limits options in defence, while Jobe Bellingham should come into the midfield for his debut to partner either Felix Nmecha or Marcel Sabitzer.

Dortmund will hope he can follow in his brother’s footsteps in the black and yellow, while the front three of Julian Brandt, Karim Adeyemi and Serhou Guirassy are a dangerous trio that should cause problems.

Fluminense vs Borussia Dortmund Odds

Fluminense are the outsiders at 9/2 to win this game, with Borussia Dortmund just 4/7 to secure all three points. That gives the German giants an implied win probability of 64%, with a draw up at 7/2.

Over 2.5 goals is 10/11, BTTS is the same price and Guirassy is the favourite to score first at 10/3. 

Price Boost - Borussia Dortmund to win, BTTS and Serhou Guirassy to score @ 4/1

I’m going to take advantage of the Price Boost on offer at Betfred for this one, as I do believe Dortmund will have too much for Fluminense. They have won their last six games in all competitions, including beating Barcelona 3-1 in the second leg of their Champions League quarter-final. 

Remarkably in each of those last six games, they have scored three goals or more - hitting three against Barcelona, Monchengladbach, Hoffenheim and Holstein Kiel and four against Wolfsburg and Leverkusen. 

Today's Football Fixtures

That level of goalscoring ability is going to be tough for the Brazilian outfit to deal with, while both teams have scored in four of those six. Their defence can be troubled and Fluminense have a decent attack, while Guirassy has scored in each of his last six appearances. 

He’s proven himself to be one of the finest strikers in the world in recent years and should be able to keep up his hot streak with another goal. This price boost, up from 3/1 to 4/1, is my first selection.

Daniel Svensson to get booked @ 4/1

My esteemed colleague, Nick Ware, who has a particular talent for digging out unique stats, has picked out something that I think is worthy of consideration ahead of this Group F fixture. 

I touched upon Fluminense’s flying winger Jhon Arias earlier and he should start on the right, giving him the opportunity to drive at Borussia Dortmund’s left wing-back, Daniel Svensson. Now, Arias is a constant problem for defenders to deal with, and this is highlighted in his fouled-per-game average of 2.9 in this season's Serie A (2.3 p/g in 2024, 2.5 p/g in 2023). 

His ability to draw fouls has translated to the international scene, with the 27-year-old averaging 1.6 fouls won in the South American section of 2026 World Cup qualifying. So, putting a tricky winger up against Svensson seems like a good match, even though the Swede has only picked up two yellows this season. 

In my eyes, that just means we are getting cracking value on him to find his way into the referee’s notebook at some point. 

Offers

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