Mexico vs South Africa Prediction: Tricky opener for El Tri

The 2026 FIFA World Cup starts on Thursday (1pm local, 8pm BST), with co-hosts Mexico taking on South Africa at the Estadio Azteca in a re-run of the 2010 opening game at Soccer City in Johannesburg.

Below are my Mexico vs South Africa predictions, alongside team news and match odds, ahead of this tournament opener from Mexico City.

Sports Welcome Offer

New customers only. Register, deposit with Debit Card, and place first bet £10+ at Evens (2.0)+ on Sports within 7 days to get £30 in Sports Free Bets & £20 in Bet Builder Free Bets within 24 hours of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility & payment exclusions apply. T&Cs Apply.

Sports Welcome Offer

New customers only. Register, deposit with Debit Card, and place first bet £10+ at Evens (2.0)+ on Sports within 7 days to get £30 in Sports Free Bets & £20 in Bet Builder Free Bets within 24 hours of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility & payment exclusions apply. T&Cs Apply.

Team News

Genoa defender Johan Vasquez, who scored in both of Mexico's pre-tournament friendlies, a 1-0 victory over Australia and a 5-1 thrashing of Serbia, will start at centre-back on Thursday, possibly alongside West Ham United's Edson Alvarez, who spent last season on loan at Fenerbahce in a midfield role.

Leading the line will be Raul Jimenez, who will re-join Wolves this summer upon the expiration of his Fulham contract. A goal for the 35-year-old against South Africa would see him level Jared Borgetti on 46 goals for El Tri, with only Javier 'Chicarito' Hernandez left standing between him and the outright record.

Veteran goalkeeper Guillermo Ochoa, appearing at his sixth World Cup, will probably play second fiddle to Raul Rangel.

World Cup Odds

As for Bafana Bafana, left-back Aubrey Modiba is hoping to shake off a hamstring injury, otherwise expect Samukelo Kabini to start.

Burnley forward Lyle Foster, who has only scored one goal this calendar year, is set to front South Africa's attack in Mexico City.

Mexico vs South Africa Odds

Mexico, who are unbeaten in their last seven World Cup openers, are heavy favourites to kick off the tournament with a win, with 2/5 odds implying a 71.4% probability of success.

South Africa are 8/1, or an 11.1% chance, with the draw offered at 16/5. The two sides drew 1-1 in the opening game of the 2010 finals in South Africa, and a repeat of that scoreline can be backed at 16/5.

Get Turbo Boosted odds on Mexico vs South Africa! (Available from 09:00)

Double Delight & Hat-trick Heaven: Get DOUBLE or TREBLE the odds if your winning First Goalscorer bet scores a second and third.

Player To Be Yellow Carded - Aubrey Modiba (ZAF) @ 11/4

I'm expecting CD Guadalajara's Roberto Alvarado to line up on the right wing for Mexico, and he's a tricky player to defend against, as underlined by his 2.3 fouled-per-game average in Liga MX (Clausura) this year.

Should he prove his fitness, Modiba will likely be tasked with marking the 27-year-old, and the Bafana Bafana left-back committed five fouls across his four Africa Cup of Nations appearances (three starts) earlier this year, picking up two yellow cards.

If Alvarado manages to get one on one with Modiba, he could expose the 30-year-old, and leave his opponent no other decision than to take him down, resulting in a yellow card from the referee.

Away Team Total Shots Over/Under +8.5 @ 1/1

I'm looking to the opening game of the 2025 Gold Cup for inspiration here.

While Mexico weren't playing on home soil, instead in Inglewood, California, they kicked off the competition with a 3-2 victory over an international minnow, the Dominican Republic, who recorded 12 shots.

El Tri beat Suriname 2-0 in their second game, conceding five shots, the same number as in their third match against Costa Rica, which finished goalless.

Honduras managed six shots in their 1-0 semi-final defeat to Mexico, too.

We need at least nine South Africa shots on Thursday, which I think is achievable when you consider the Dominican Republic managed 12, and South Africa are a much stronger side than them.

Mexico are pretty solid defensively, but if they go in front, which they are favoured to, they might retreat and allow South Africa to have more of the ball, and Bafana Bafana aren't afraid to let fly from distance.

At this year's AFCON, South Africa registered 10, 18, 16 and 18 shots, respectively, against Angola, Egypt, Zimbabwe and Cameroon, and while Mexico may be a better team than all four, those are encouraging statistics.