Colombia vs Peru Prediction: Duran to inspire Diaz-less hosts

After beginning their 2026 World Cup qualification campaign eight games unbeaten, you could forgive Colombian supporters for starting to make plans for next year's finals in the USA. However, Los Cafeteros have suffered an alarming dip in form, losing four of their last six qualifiers, and with four rounds of fixtures remaining, they are at risk of being overtaken in sixth, which is the last automatic qualification spot.

On Friday (21:30), Nestor Lorenzo's side host Peru, who are ninth but still in with a shout of finishing seventh, which would earn La Bicolor a play-off spot. Below are my Colombia vs Peru predictions, complete with all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of this game at the Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Melendez in Barranquilla.

Team News

Colombia have called up Luis Suarez (Almeria) as an injury replacement for Rafael Santos Borre (Internacional), who has suffered an abdominal tear. Borre was initially called up to cover for fellow forward Jhon Cordoba (FK Krasnodar), who recently sustained a hamstring problem.

Given the issues in attack for Los Cafeteros, Jhon Duran (Al-Nassr) looks a certainty to start in the number nine role.

Luis Diaz (Liverpool) is Colombia's star man, but the 28-year-old is suspended for Friday's match.

More responsibility, then, will be placed on the shoulders of Jhon Arias (Fluminense) and James Rodriguez (Club Leon).

Football Odds

Further back, you'll find the likes of Richard Rios (Palmeiras) and Jefferson Lerma patrolling the middle of the park, with Daniel Munoz (Crystal Palace) and Deiver Machado (RC Lens) as the full-backs. Jhon Lucumi (Bologna), Yerry Mina (Cagliari) and Davinson Sanchez (Galatasaray) are competing for the two centre-back spots in front of goalkeeper Camilo Vargas (Atlas).

Miguel Trauco (Alianza Lima) has pulled out of Peru's squad with an injury, joining Wilder Cartagena (Orlando City) and Alexander Callens (AEK Athens) in the treatment room.

Peru's squad is full of experienced internationals, with goalkeeper Pedro Gallese (Orlando City), full-back Luis Advincula (Boca Juniors), midfielder Andre Carillo (Corinthians) and striker Paolo Guerrero (Alianza Lima) all with over 100 caps to their name.

Colombia vs Peru Odds

Colombia haven't tasted success since beating Chile 4-0 last October, yet Friday's hosts are heavy favourites to claim all three points in Barranquilla, with odds of 3/10 implying a 76.9% probability. Peru, who have lost their last six away qualifiers, are 17/2, or a 10.5% chance, to shock Los Cafeteros.

The reverse fixture ended 1-1 in Lima last September, and another draw between the two can be backed at 10/3.

Correct Score - Colombia 1-0 @ 18/5

I'm not a big fan of scoreline predictions, but there could be some value in this pick for Friday's game.

Peru are yet to score on their travels in this qualification campaign, blanking in all seven away trips so far, so I don't hold out much hope of them finding the net in Barranquilla, where Colombia have already shut out Venezuela and Chile.

Colombia, meanwhile, are missing a few key players in attack, chiefly Diaz, who is the joint-top scorer in South American qualifying alongside Argentina's Lionel Messi (six goals each).

The visitors will look to keep things tight for as long as possible and frustrate their hosts, who will also be mindful that a draw wouldn't necessarily be the worst result in the world.

Still, Los Cafeteros will be desperate to break out of their four-game winless run and bring some joy back to the faces of their supporters.

It will be a grind on Friday without Diaz, but I think they will eventually wear down their opponents, who have lost 1-0 three times in this campaign, twice in their last three games, both of which were away from home.

If Colombia go in front, I think they will be happy to hold on to what they have, and with Peru far from potent, they stand a great chance of keeping a clean sheet, so a 1-0 win looks possible here.

First Goalscorer - Jhon Duran (COL) @ 4/1

It's been a strange but successful season for Duran on a personal level. The 21-year-old established himself as a 'super sub' at Aston Villa, where he scored 12 goals in 29 appearances, before sealing a mega-money move to Saudi Arabian side Al-Nassr, for whom he has struck 12 times in 18 outings.

Duran only scored once in seven games for his country last year, but is on one from one in 2025, having notched in the March 2-2 draw with Paraguay.

The 16-cap international appears certain to start on Friday, with Cordoba and Borre both sidelined, although he would've likely got the nod to lead the line anyway.

Duran ended the club season with five goals in his last five appearances, so he should be in a good mood heading into this crucial qualifier in Barranquilla.

I've backed a 1-0 win for Colombia in my first tip, so it makes sense to go all out on Duran to score first at 4/1, rather than take the 7/5 on him to net at any time.

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