Fenerbahce vs Lugano Prediction: Mourinho’s men to make sure of qualification

The return leg of Fenerbahce and Lugano's Champions League second-round qualifier takes place at the Ulker Stadium on Tuesday (18:00) with the Turkish hosts holding the advantage after winning 4-3 in last week's first leg in Thun.

Check out my Fenerbahce vs Lugano prediction below to find out whether I think the Swiss side have it in them to upset the odds in Istanbul.

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Jose Mourinho will likely have to make at least two changes from last week's starting XI after injuries sustained by Caglar Soyuncu and Ryan Kent, meaning Mert Muldur and Irfan Can Kahveci could be promoted from the bench.

Ferdi Kadioglu will also hope to earn a start after his goal as a substitute in Thun.

Meanwhile, new loan signing Allan Saint-Maximin could make his debut from the bench after not being risked for the first leg.

Lugano trio Lars Mai, Shkelqim Vladi and Ilija Maslarov all missed last week's match and are expected to miss out again in Istanbul, while head coach Mattia Croci-Tort has a few selection dilemmas in front of him.

Kacper Przybylko came off the bench in the first leg but after scoring in his first start of the campaign against Basel on Saturday, the Pole is surely in contention to begin the game on Tuesday.

Fenerbahce vs Lugano Odds

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Tuesday's hosts are 1/4, or an 80% chance, to triumph again against Lugano, who are 15/2 to get the victory they need to at least force extra time, which gives them an implied win probability of 11.8%. A draw, which wouldn't be enough for the Swiss side, can be found at 9/2.

Both teams to score can be backed at 8/11, over 3.5 goals at 1/1, and a repeat of last week's scoreline - 4-3 in favour of Fenerbahce - at 80/1.

Double Chance & Both Teams To Score - Fenerbahce or Draw & Yes @ 19/20

The task is clear for Mourinho and his men on Tuesday - avoid defeat and they will book their place in the Champions League third qualifying round, where French side Lille lie in wait.

Given Mourinho's pedigree in the competition, that sounds like a simple task, and in previous years, you'd expect the Portuguese tactician to grind out a 1-0 win or a goalless draw.

However, the two-time Champions League winner isn't as much of a guarantee as he used to be, and he is in the very early days of his tenure at the Turkish giants. That much was evident in Thun last week as his side shipped three goals to Lugano, and Fenerbahce could now be without one of their centre-halves from that game, Soyuncu.

Therefore, I struggle to see a world where they keep a clean sheet, with the Swiss side going all out to turn the tie around. But, crucially, I believe they will score a few themselves in front of a hostile crowd.

Edin Dzeko was the hero for Fenerbahce in Switzerland as the 38-year-old striker fired a hat-trick to show his powers haven't completely faded, and the Bosnian will back himself to get at least one or two back in Istanbul, which should be enough for his side to progress to the next round.

Uran Bislimi Anytime Scorer @ 4/1

Seeing as I've backed Lugano to score in Istanbul, it's probably worth picking out someone who could get on the scoresheet for them, especially given that their shortest-priced player - Przybylko - is 3/1 to find the net anytime.

The 31-year-old is a tempting option considering he has struck twice in three games this season, scoring within two minutes of his introduction in Lugano's Swiss Super League opener against Grasshoppers on July 20 before netting against Basel as a starter on Saturday.

However, while I do think the Pole will start on Tuesday, there is less certainty over his role given he was a substitute in the first leg against Fenerbahce.

Instead, I'm selecting Swiss midfielder Uran Bislimi - who also has two goals this season - to score anytime in Istanbul.

Like Przybylko, Bislimi found the net in Lugano's Super League opener, popping up in the match's dying embers to secure a 2-1 victory for his side.

Four days later, the 24-year-old performed further heroics as he struck a 64th-minute equaliser to make it 2-2 against Fenerbahce before the Turks ultimately ran out 4-3 winners in Thun.

Bislimi was restricted to a second-half substitute role on Saturday as Croci-Tort opted to conserve most of his energy for Tuesday's crunch clash, and that should increase his chances of playing the majority of the second leg and scoring.

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