Euro 2024 Group D Predictions: France set to take maximum points

Group D at Euro 2024 looks to be a sizzler, as Kylian Mbappe’s France seek to reach another major final, having lost on penalties to Argentina at the showpiece event of the 2022 World Cup. They have been placed into a group with the Netherlands, Austria and Poland, and the French side are joint-favourites with England, to win the entire tournament. 

Didier Deschamps has a knack for navigating these competitions, and below you can find my Euro 2024 Group D predictions and betting tips. 

France

FIFA World Ranking: 2nd

To win the group: 8/15

One of the greatest international teams we have seen have been there or thereabouts in every tournament over the past eight years. They’ve reached two World Cup finals in a row, won one of them, and also reached the final of Euro 2016 on home soil. The major disappointment came at Euro 2020 as they surprisingly lost on penalties to Switzerland, and they will look to put that right here. 

Deschamps once again has a ridiculous squad depth at his disposal, but after the retirement of Raphael Varane, there is an opportunity at the centre of defence. William Saliba will now probably start alongside Ibrahima Konate, but Dayot Upamecano is also pushing for a starting spot. There is the option to bring Jules Kounde in from right-back, although he is likely to provide solidity on the right to compensate for Theo Hernandez’s attacking runs from the opposite flank. 

This squad is just exceptional at every turn. N’Golo Kante is back in the fold in midfield, while Antoine Griezmann, Olivier Giroud, Ousmane Dembele and Mbappe make up a sensational front four. They are well-balanced and have a tonne of squad depth, so they are set to go deep into the competition once again. 

Key player: Kylian Mbappe. Obviously. The best individual player in the world has an unbreakable mentality, and loves to shine in the big games, as we saw with his hat-trick in the World Cup final. For all of France’s quality - he is the man who makes the difference in key moments. 

Prediction: Finalists. They should win this group at a canter, and batter most sides in the knockout stages too. I won’t predict them to win the whole thing, but they will be in another final.

The Netherlands

FIFA World Ranking: 7th 

To win the group: 11/4

A big name, but not a nation approaching Germany in excellent shape. The Netherlands have not had a great time at major tournaments, failing to qualify for Euro 2016 and crashing out in the last-16 of Euro 2020. They improved at the World Cup, only losing on penalties to eventual champions Argentina in that tense quarter-final, but injuries may see them get off to a slow start here. 

Frenkie De Jong and Memphis Depay, two stars of the team, may both miss the first match through injury, and they will struggle to hit their peaks unless the Dutch go deep into the tournament. Meanwhile, Feyenoord goalkeeper Justin Bijlow also is struggling, so Brentford’s Mark Flekken is likely to take the number one shirt for the opener. 

Defensively, there is a lot of talent, with Virgil van Dijk, Nathan Ake, Matthijs De Ligt, Stefan De Vrij, Micky van de Ven and Denzel Dumfries all involved in this squad. On paper, they may even boast the best backline in the competition, and have kept five clean sheets out of their last six games. But up front they need something special from the likes of Cody Gakpo, as their squad is not well-balanced and Ronald Koeman may have to rely on individual moments of magic. 

Key player: Memphis Depay. The Dutch have a defence that the rest of Europe envies, but they need Memphis to produce on the big stage if they want to go far. His fitness and form will be vital to their success. If he can find his goalscoring boots, the Dutch could be tough to stop. 

Prediction: I think they will get out of the group, behind France in second place. After that they could face a winnable last-16 tie against Ukraine, but I think they’ll come unstuck in the quarter-finals. 

Austria 

FIFA World Ranking: 25th

To win the group: 8/1

Ralf Rangnick’s Austria are many people’s dark horses to do well in this tournament. They are functional, bang in form, and have beaten Germany and scored six past Turkey in the build-up to Euro 2024. However, recent injuries have taken a shine off what promised to be an excellent tournament. 

David Alaba has been included in the squad, but he is not expected to play any part and has been included as a ‘non-playing captain’ by his manager. Xaver Schlager has now also been ruled out of the tournament, while Rangnick himself may not stay as the gaffer for much longer if the right club offer comes in for him. He is certain to see out this tournament, but beyond that - who knows?

These three factors mean the optimism around this side has been quelled slightly, but they are still well-organised, and press aggressively in a 4-2-3-1 system. Without Alaba, they are lacking star power, although Marcel Sabitzer has had a fantastic season since moving to Borussia Dortmund. He along with Christoph Baumgartner will be trusted to provide the creativity from wide positions, while also doing their work defensively. 

Key player: Michael Gregoritsch. An experienced striker who does it all, Gregoritsch has been boosted with confidence under Rangnick and he is now absolutely key to Austria’s success. Marko Arnautovic is now a bench option to provide something special, but it will be the Freiburg man who needs to produce. 

Prediction: I can’t see Austria getting past France or the Netherlands given their injury issues, and although they will push the big boys all the way, I think they’ll come up short in this group. Third place, with a half chance of making it into the last-16, but they’ll go no further.  

Poland

FIFA World Ranking: 28th

To win the group: 11/1

Poland scraped into the play-offs for Euro 2024 qualification, having finished third in a five-team group containing Albania, Czechia, Moldova and the Faroe Islands. Once in the play-offs, they hammered Estonia, before edging past Wales on penalties to book their ticket to Germany. 

Despite the high of qualification, not a lot is expected from Poland this summer. They reached the quarter-finals in 2016, and made it out of the group in Qatar, but have failed to deliver in their other major tournament appearances. 

Unfortunately Arkadiusz Milik and Matty Cash have not made the squad through injury, which means once again the attacking responsibility will fall to Robert Lewandowski. The Barcelona goalscorer hasn’t quite produced in a major tournament for his country, and now 35, this could be his final tournament. 

Key player: Wojciech Szczęsny will play a big part in goal, but let’s be honest, Lewandowski has to produce for Poland to succeed. If he can find the net a few times in the group stage, Poland might stand a chance. But it's a big ask in this tough group. 

Prediction: Bottom of the group. In my eyes, Poland won’t be able to compete with the likes of France, the Netherlands and Austria. 

Group Winner Bonus: Get a cash bonus on your winnings up to 25% if your Euro 2024 Group winner accumulator bet wins!

Check out our other Euro 2024 Betting Tips here.