Djurgarden vs Chelsea Prediction: Blues to turn up after Swedes hold firm in first half

Chelsea beat Legia Warsaw 4-2 on aggregate last month to advance to the semi-finals of the Uefa Conference League, where they have been drawn against Swedish side Djurgarden, who booked their final-four spot with a 4-2 aggregate success over Rapid Wien.

Below are my Djurgarden vs Chelsea predictions, complete with all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of this first leg at the 3Arena on Thursday (20:00, TNT Sports 4).

Team News

Djurgarden's lengthy injury list includes Patric Aslund, Albin Ekdal, Oskar Fallenius, Malkolm Nilsson, Rasmus Schuller and Nino Zugelj.

Football Odds

Mikael Marques and Piotr Johansson also miss out for Jani Honkavaara's side, but goalkeeper Jacob Rinne could return after missing last Thursday's 1-0 victory over Oster due to illness.

New signings Zakara Sawo and Filip Manojlovic, who both started against Oster, are ineligible, having joined after the squad list was sent to Uefa.

Wesley Fofana, Omari Kellyman (both hamstring) and Marc Guiu (groin) are out injured for Chelsea, who remain without the suspended Mykhailo Mudryk, who tested positive for a banned substance late last year.

However, Malo Gusto, who missed Saturday's 1-0 win over Everton, could return to the squad in Sweden.

"Malo is injured, but it does not look like an important injury," Blues head coach Enzo Maresca told reporters last Friday.

"He's already running and doing things outside, but he won't be available for tomorrow [Saturday]. Hopefully, he can be available for the next one."

Danish goalkeeper Filip Jorgensen has featured 11 times in this season's Conference League and is expected to replace Robert Sanchez between the sticks in Stockholm, while Reece James, Tosin Adarabioyo, Josh Acheampong, Benoit Badiashile, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, Jadon Sancho and Christopher Nkunku, all of whom started Chelsea's quarter-final second-leg defeat to Legia last month, could earn promotions from the bench on Thursday.

Romeo Lavia, who made his comeback from injury as a starter on Saturday, is ineligible after being left out of Chelsea's updated Conference League squad in January.

Djurgarden vs Chelsea Odds

Djurgarden are huge underdogs on Thursday, with odds of 8/1 for a victory implying an 11.1% probability, while Chelsea are 3/10, or a 76.9% chance, to take a lead back to Stamford Bridge next week.

The draw is priced at 4/1, both teams to score at 10/11, and over 2.5 total goals at 4/7.

Cole Palmer (21/20), Nicolas Jackson (13/10) and Nkunku (7/5) head the anytime goalscorer market, with Tokmac Nguen (3/1) first up for the hosts.

Half-time/Full-time - Draw/Chelsea @ 3/1

Chelsea are heavy favourites to win on Thursday, so there is little value in backing them to do so. Even plumping for a big Blues victory doesn't offer much in return, so instead, I'm looking to the hosts to keep things tight in the first half, before the visitors do the business in the second period.

Legia kept the Blues at bay in the first half of their first leg in Warsaw before falling to a 3-0 defeat. Tyrique George scored four minutes after the restart before Noni Madueke bagged a brace to put the game beyond the Polish side.

In the second leg, Legia took the lead in the 10th minute, only for Marc Cucurella to equalise in the 33rd minute, although the Poles did go on to win 2-1 at Stamford Bridge thanks to a 53rd-minute strike from Steve Kapuadi.

FC Copenhagen also went into half-time level with Chelsea in both last-16 legs in March, losing both second halves, which means Maresca's side have been drawing at the interval in their last four Conference League games.

Djurgarden, meanwhile, have drawn three of their four first halves in the Conference League knockouts, going on to lose two of those matches.

Of course, Chelsea represent several step-ups in class, but at 3/1, I think the Swedes are worthy of consideration to hold on until half-time on Thursday, with the English outfit's superiority shining through in the second half.

Player to Receive a Card - Tokmac Nguen (DJU) @ 4/1

Djugardens midfielder Daniel Stensson (13/8) is the clear frontrunner in the 'player to receive a card' market, yet forward Nguen, who has received the same number of yellow cards (four) in the competition as the 28-year-old, has 15 players in front of him, priced at 4/1 to pick up a booking on Thursday.

Nguen is averaging 1.1 fouls per game in this season's Conference League and was carded in the 23rd minute of Djurgarden's last European outing against Rapid Wien in Austria, making it back-to-back bookings in Europe following his caution in the second leg of his side's last-16 tie with Pafos.

The 31-year-old hasn't been booked in any of his five Allsvenskan matches (four starts) this term but is averaging a foul per game in the Swedish top flight, and he will be looking to unsettle the Blues' back line on Thursday.

At 4/1, I think there's value to be had in backing the Kenya-born, one-time Norway international to be carded in the first leg, with no other Djurgarden player receiving more bookings in Europe this season.

Offers

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