Derby County vs Swansea City Prediction: Another draw on the cards?

Derby County’s impressive start to the season has taken them near the top half of the table, when many thought Paul Warne’s men would be mired in a relegation battle. Next up, Derby host Swansea City (20:00, Sky Sports Football), after their dramatic 4-3 home defeat to Leeds United last time out. 

Below you can find my Derby County vs Swansea City predictions featuring team news and betting tips as 14th faces 15th in the second tier. 

Team News

Warne will be without Jerry Yates for this one as he is ineligible to face his parent club, and that will be a big loss for the manager who has relied on Yates so much this term. He scored his third goal in three matches in the 1-1 draw with Preston, but in his absence, Dajaune Brown will have to step up to the plate. 

Defender Callum Elder and on-loan Wolves winger Tawanda Chirewa returned to training last week after spells out injured but were not named in the squad against Preston and this game may also come too soon. 

Meanwhile Crystal Palace loanee David Ozoh has been back training on the grass in recent days but is also likely to miss out. Right-back Ryan Nyambe is out of action as he tries to recover from the knee injury he suffered last month. Nathaniel Mendez-Laing could come back into the side if Warne switches to a front three, with Kayden Jackson likely to keep his place on the right-hand side. 

For Swansea, they remain without Eom Ji-Sung, Sam Parker, Andy Fisher, Ollie Cooper and Josh Ginnelly. "We are getting there again with Josh," Luke Williams said this weekend.

"We have to be very careful and we need him to be very careful about everything he does away from the training pitch, because his body is not used to training fully because of the amount of time he has been away.

"It's a step forward. It's the stage he was at before his last setback so we are optimistic now that we are going to crack it, and we are excited to see him on the pitch."

Liam Cullen is likely to get the nod up front after his goal against Leeds, while we could also see more of Florian Bianchini, after he scored that late goal that looked like it had rescued a point for the Swans. 

Derby County vs Swansea City Odds

Derby are priced at 6/4 to win this game and Swansea can be backed at 15/8. That gives the home side an implied win probability of 40%, while a draw is available at 9/4. BTTS can be backed at 10/11, over 2.5 goals is 6/5 and James Collins is the favourite to score first at 13/2. 

Under 2.5 goals @ 8/13

These two both rank in the bottom eight when looking at the stats for over 2.5 goals this season. Swansea may have had a thrilling 4-3 defeat last time out but that was certainly an anomaly for a side who have still only scored and conceded 14 goals in 16 league matches so far. Only four of their 16 matches (25 per cent) have seen over 2.5 goals putting them third-bottom, only ahead of Sheffield United and Burnley - who have the best defences in the league. 

Meanwhile Derby are hardly a box of fun either, seeing over 2.5 goals in only six of their 16 outings so far. Five of their last seven matches have finished 1-1, and I could see something similar happening here, but I’m fairly certain we won’t see a game packed full of goals. I’m happy to trust the statistics on this occasion and so my first selection is there to be under 2.5 goals at 8/13. 

Derby County 1-1 Swansea City @ 5/1

Derby’s run of results recently has shown exactly where they are at in the Championship this season. They have drawn their last two matches 1-1, while five of their last seven have also finished by the same scoreline. They are able to be competitive against pretty much every opponent they face, but they lack the quality to push for the top six and staying out of danger has to remain the primary aim. 

This means most of their games are going to end up in draws, or one-goal margins either way. Just one point separates these two outfits and so it is clearly going to be another one of those tight encounters, which leads me to believe we could see yet another 1-1 draw at Pride Park. County have the ability to score, but their defence still leaves something to be desired, so I’ll plump for a correct score on Wednesday night at 5/1.