Derby County vs Portsmouth Prediction: Pompey could stun the Rams

Derby County earned an impressive 0-0 draw at promotion-chasing Burnley in midweek but now they face another tough test against an improving Portsmouth, in what is a big clash near the bottom of the table.

The Rams are hosting this clash at Pride Park on Friday (20:00, Sky Sports Main Event), and they currently boast a four-point gap on the visitors. Pompey are unbeaten in their last four games, picking up two wins along the way. Read on for my Derby County vs Portsmouth prediction, featuring the latest team news and match odds.

Derby County vs Portsmouth Odds

Derby are 9/10 to win their fifth home game of the season, giving them an implied probability of 52.6%. Portsmouth are valued at 16/5 to come away with what would be just their second away win in the league, which gives them a theoretical chance of 23.8%.

The draw is on offer at 12/5 (29.4%), with Derby and Portsmouth having registered six and seven stalemates between them already in 2024/25.

Both teams to score has struck in seven on Pompey's trips on the road this year, and it is priced at 10/11 for Friday. Over 2.5 goals has been a winning selection in four of Derby's nine home games so far, and is available at 11/10 for this clash.

Since returning from heart surgery, Portsmouth striker Colby Bishop has scored two goals in four league appearances. He is 11/4 to find the back of the net during this contest.

Football Odds

Team News

After saying his team were "a League 1 squad with a sprinkle of sugar" after their defeat at Leeds United last weekend, Derby boss Paul Warne might have been surprised at his players earning a hard-fought point at Turf Moor in the week - though I bet they were out to make a point.

It may have been a point to ignite a fire in the Rams' stars but from the outside looking in, it looked like a ticking time bomb. Warne still hasn't won over many of the supporters, so that comment did not go down too well with them last week.

The home side have two injury concerns heading into Friday in Ryan Nyambe and David Ozoh, who are out with knee and quad issues respectively. If Warne decided to bring in some fresh legs to manage the three-game week, we could see defender Kane Wilson return to the fold after he was demoted to the bench against Burnley.

The former Bristol City defender had started three games on the bounce before that game, so it looks likely that he could come back in on Friday. Attackers Nathaniel Mendez-Laing and Kayden Jackson were also dropped from the XI against the Clarets, so they will be hoping for recalls here.

Ebou Adams, Liam Thompson and Kenzo Goudmijn could continue as the midfield three for the Rams, although we could see Ben Osborn return to the fold after he was left out of the squad in midweek.

The back five of Callum Elder, Eiran Cashin, Curtis Nelson, Nat Phillips and Joe Ward should remain intact after they kept a first clean sheet in over two months.

For Portsmouth, they are still unable to call upon Ibane Bowat, Jacob Farrell, Jordan Williams, Conor Shaughnessy, Kusini Yengi and Mark O'Mahony due to injury, with the latter returning to parent club Brighton & Hove Albion for treatment.

Defender Regan Poole will need to be closely monitored ahead of the game after he was forced off at half-time in Tuesday's draw with Norwich City due to a hamstring problem. If he is out, you would expect boss John Mousinho to call up Tom McIntyre to partner makeshift centre-back Marlon Pack at Pride Park.

Andre Dozzell and Callum Lang have completed one-match bans and are expected to return to the starting lineup for Friday's away trip, with the latter offering Pompey another attacking dynamic in the East Midlands.

Lang will likely slot back into attacking midfield, linking up with Matt Ritchie and Josh Murphy on the flanks, while Bishop should continue to lead the line.

Portsmouth - Draw no bet @ 2/1

Derby did well against the Clarets but it doesn't take away the fact they had lost three on the spin before that, including two home games. This is an important game for them as Pompey are beneath them and they need to try and keep Mousinho's men at a distance.

That could be a struggle because it seems like things are starting to click for them and they will have gained a lot of confidence form going unbeaten in the last four matches.

I do think there is value in covering them to win this game but I feel most safe by opting for the draw no bet market. If you are unfamiliar with this particular market, draw no bet means you cover either the home side or away team to win, but if the result is a draw you will get your stake back.

A draw does feel like a real possibility here, though. Both teams experienced goalless stalemates last time out and have played out 13 between them already this term. However, I think Pompey are worth risking here as they are improving, more so than the hosts I would say.

Mousinho and his players know that a win here would help pull them further away from danger, while bringing the Rams into the thick of it. Like Derby, they got an impressive draw in the week, and to nullify the attacking threat of a Norwich side that have scored 35 goals so far, that was an impressive clean sheet.

Derby are not as good going forward and are suspect defensively, so I think Pompey could be about to pick up a rare away win here, which will only strengthen their survival hopes.

Both teams to score @ 10/11

I think goals at both ends are also worth backing in this clash, although not at a more appealing price. This is because it has been a winning selection in five of the last six league games at Pride Park, as well as the fact that only two of Pompey's away games have failed to feature BTTS.

The two sides have attacking players in the final third who can make a difference. For the hosts, it's striker Jerry Yates, who has found the back of the net four times already in the second tier. But the likes of Mendez-Laing, Jackson, Nelson and Adams have chipped in with a couple too.

For Portsmouth, Lang is their leading scorer with five, while Murphy has four, while Bishop is hoping to catch up with the two he's bagged in his first four appearances.

There is enough attacking quality, as well as two defences who have leaked a lot of goals this term (Derby - 26, Portsmouth - 30), that makes me confident that both sides will get on the scoresheet on Friday night.

Offers

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