Mainz vs Fiorentina Prediction: Back caution at 9/4 in battle of domestic strugglers

Somebody’s 100% league-phase record has to go in the Uefa Conference League on Thursday when Mainz host managerless Fiorentina at the Mewa Arena (18:45 local, 17:45 GMT, live on TNT Sports 6).

La Viola will be desperate to extend their good run in Europe after Sunday’s defeat to Lecce continued their winless start to the Serie A campaign and saw off boss Stefano Pioli. My Mainz vs Fiorentina predictions follow, along with the latest team news and match odds from Betfred.

Team News

Bo Henriksen cannot pick any of Maxim Leitsch, Maxim Dal or Anthony Caci, but Nadiem Amiri is available.

The Mainz boss will likely make a late decision between Danny da Costa and Lennard Maloney at the back.

Fiorentina’s interim boss Daniele Galloppa should continue with Edin Dzeko up front in partnership with Moise Kean.

Rolando Mandragora could get a start in midfield ahead of Cher Ndour in one of multiple potential changes following the Viola’s latest domestic defeat.

Mainz vs Fiorentina Odds

The Bundesliga outfit are backed to put their horrific home league form to one side and build on the 1-0 win over Zrinjski in their previous Conference League fixture at the Mewa Arena.

They’re a 5/4 chance with Betfred, while Fiorentina are priced at 23/10.

It’s 9/4 for the two sides to maintain their unbeaten league-phase starts, and 17/2 for the game to finish scoreless.

Today's Football Fixtures

Draw @ 9/4

Pioli’s firing earlier this week was an absolute inevitability given the way things have gone for Fiorentina, but the hope that a change of management will inspire an immediate turnaround needs to be tempered.

Galloppa needs to try to coax the sort of performance which has too often been lacking this term, but there has to be some sort of resilience on display at the very least.

They are up against a Mainz side who have barely been any better this season, and they have just one win themselves in league play.

Both teams have started the league phase well in this competition, and playing for a point should work for both sides without either dropping out of the top eight in the long term.

It’s a 9/4 shot, implying a 30.8% probability, and I think that is definitely on the generous side.

Football Odds

Under 7.5 Total Corners @ 13/8

I don’t expect much out of this game, to be completely honest.

Mainz have been pretty toothless, with just five goals in seven matches post-Conference League qualifying. Fiorentina, meanwhile, have been downright awful in the league.

Neither have been much of a threat in the final third, and their corner counts have been on the low side to say the least. Mainz average five a game in the Bundesliga, Fiorentina four in Serie A.

These are not two teams forcing opponents into desperate defending at every turn, and I’m on the under for 7.5 corners on Thursday.

Offers

Place a Match Result bet (Pre-Match) on the specified 2 Up Early Payout market in selected leagues, and if your team goes 2 goals ahead in the match, we’ll pay out your bet as a winner!