Colombia vs Panama Prediction: Los Cafeteros to break Panamanian hearts

 | Friday 5th July 2024, 14:00pm

Friday 5th July 2024, 14:00pm

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The third quarter-final of 2024 Copa America sees Group D winners Colombia face shock Group C runners-up Panama at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona on Saturday (23:00, Premier Sports 1).

Read below for my Colombia vs Panama prediction as Los Cafeteros look to avoid an almighty upset and book their spot in the semi-finals, where they would face either Uruguay or Brazil.

Colombia vs Panama Betting Tips

  • Luis Diaz anytime scorer (90 mins) @ 6/4
  • Bet Builder - Colombia to win (90 mins), both teams to score - No (90 mins), Daniel Munoz 2+ shots (90 mins), Panama over 19.5 booking points (90 mins) @ 4/1

Copa America Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Copa America page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this competition.

Team News

Injured Colombia defender Jhon Lucumi is set to be joined on the sidelines by Jefferson Lerma on Saturday after the Crystal Palace midfielder picked up a one-game ban for an accumulation of yellow cards in the competition.

Mateus Uribe is the most likely replacement for Colombia, who will likely otherwise be unchanged from the side that began the 1-1 draw that confirmed their status as Group D winners.

Panama will be without influential midfielder Adalberto Carrasquilla after CONMEBOL handed him a two-match suspension for the red card he picked up in the 2-1 victory over the USA, with the first of those served in the 3-1 win against Bolivia last time out.

Colombia vs Panama Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Colombia vs Panama page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Colombia are overwhelming favourites to win the match inside regulation time, with odds of 2/7 giving them an implied win probability of 77.8%, while Panama can be backed at 9/1, or a 10% chance, to triumph inside 90 minutes.

The draw, which would send the tie straight to penalties, is available at 18/5, and both teams to score at 5/4.

Luis Diaz anytime scorer @ 6/4

Colombia's main man, Luis Diaz, is yet to score from open play at the 2024 Copa America, with his only strike at the competition so far coming from the penalty spot against Costa Rica.

But the Liverpool winger has been industrious as always, tracking back to defend and offering energy in attack, averaging two shots per game (0.7 on target).

I think Saturday will be when Diaz really makes his mark at the tournament, and there will be even more onus on him with Lerma missing in midfield.

The 27-year-old is also more likely to play the full game than James Rodriguez or Jhon Cordoba, who have seen less field time than him in the USA.

Panama were unable to keep out Diaz's club teammate Darwin Nunez in their opening game and like the Liverpool number nine, I expect Diaz's pace to be too much for Los Canaleros to deal with.

Luis Diaz anytime scorer in Colombia vs Panama at 6-4

Bet Builder - Colombia to win (90 mins), both teams to score - No (90 mins), Daniel Munoz 2+ shots (90 mins), Panama over 19.5 booking points (90 mins) @ 4/1

Panama have done terrifically well to reach the knockouts, but there needs to be a sense of realism heading into this fixture.

They were easily beaten by Uruguay (1-3), only scoring a consolation in the fifth minute of added time in the second half, while they held a numerical advantage over the USA for much of their 2-1 victory over the Stars and Stripes following Timothy Weah's 18th-minute red card.

Like Uruguay, Colombia's quality should shine through on Saturday, and I think they will show more focus than La Celeste. Colombia have kept three clean sheets this calendar year, shutting out Costa Rica, Bolivia and Spain, and I think they will bag a fourth of 2024 this weekend.

Diaz is usually the star of the show for Colombia, but Crystal Palace full-back Daniel Munoz has been creating headlines for himself in the USA.

Munoz is Colombia's top tackler at the tournament, averaging 6.3 tackles per game, almost three times that of his nearest challenger Johan Mojica.

But it's the 28-year-old's attacking forays that have really caught the eye, with two shots and a goal against Paraguay followed by a famous equaliser against Brazil to help his nation to top spot in Group D.

Munoz should get plenty of opportunities to join the attack against Panama, who will surely sit deep and look to soak up the pressure.

I think Munoz can easily match the two shots he mustered against Paraguay, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him get on the scoresheet once again.

The final leg of this bet builder requires Panama to receive over 19.5 booking points, which is basically two yellow cards as a yellow is worth 10 booking points with Betfred.

Jovani Welch was the only Panamanian to receive a booking in their opening game with Uruguay, but three yellows and a red card to Carrasquilla took the CONCACAF nation well over the 19.5 points threshold against the USA, before dropping down to just a single card against Bolivia.

In such a big game as Saturday's is, though, I expect Panama to show more aggression than they did against Uruguay and Bolivia, and more akin to the fight they displayed versus the USA.

Colombia vs Panama bet builder @ 4-1

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