Luton Town vs Millwall Prediction: Hatters can find form at home

Luton Town were 2-1 up in midweek at Oxford but capitulated to lose 3-2, a defeat that leaves them stuck in the Championship’s relegation zone. New boss Matt Bloomfield will be desperate to get his first win on the board when he welcomes Millwall to Kenilworth Road, with Alex Neil now in charge at the Den.

They currently sit 17th in the league and relegation is not out of the question, so this is a massive game, live on Sky Sports Main Event at 12:30, at the bottom. Below you will find my Luton Town vs Millwall prediction featuring team news and match odds. 

Team News

Alfie Doughty played half an hour off the bench at Oxford, and you have to think he will now be fit enough to start a game. His last start came on November 6, and Luton have badly missed his quality from set pieces in his absence. He will be a key player for Bloomfield, who went for a 4-3-3 at the Kassam Stadium. 

Amari’i Bell is the one most likely to miss out for Doughty, while centre-back Mark McGuinness found the net in the 3-2 defeat. Teenager Zack Nelson was handed another start on the left wing, with January arrival Isiaih Jones playing on the right. 

“Zack is a young lad with huge potential who we’re looking forward to working with,” Bloomfield said after the game. “I think that eventually he’ll probably end up playing more central but he’s played on that left hand side a few times already before we came and I think he does a real good job out there. I really like Zack too, he’s got a big future.”

Carlton Morris is likely to lead the line again ahead of Elijah Adebayo, while Pelly-Ruddock Mpanzu could come into midfield to provide a little more protection for the back four. Tahith Chong, Reece Burke and Shandon Baptiste are all expected back in February. 

After the departure of Romain Esse, Ra’ees Bangura-Williams made his first Championship start for Millwall against Cardiff and Neil heaped praise on him after the 2-2 draw. “Those moments of composure that we lacked, at times, he had,” Neil told Sky Sports, which means he could be involved from the start again here. 

Danny McNamara managed just four minutes off the bench upon his return from injury, but this latest setback is set to rule him out of the Luton clash. Josh Coburn and Aidomo Emakhu remain absent, while Neil may consider making a change up front, with Macaulay Langstaff unable to find the net in that draw. 

Luton Town vs Millwall Odds

Luton are priced at 6/5 to win this game, and six of their 14 home games have ended in victory this term. It’s been their away form that has let them down, but that price gives them an implied win probability of 45% heading into this fixture. Millwall are available at 5/2 to secure just their second win on the road this term, while a draw can be backed at 11/5. 

Over 2.5 goals has come in during 16 of Luton’s 28 games this term giving them a success rate of 57%, and that is priced at 13/8. BTTS is 6/5 while Morris is the favourite to score first at 11/2, having hit seven goals so far this term.

Luton to win @ 6/5

I will go for a Luton win here, which offers decent value. Now, the Hatters have been rubbish on the road all season, losing 12 of 14, but at home they have put up more of a fight. Six wins and four draws from 14 gives them the 14th-strongest home record, and I think they can add to that here. 

Bloomfield needs to get up and running with a win, and it is surely only a matter of time before they climb out of the relegation zone. There’s too much quality in this squad and the return of Doughty is going to make a massive difference to their attacking effectiveness. I’m not convinced about Millwall at all, and they are now on a run of six league games without a win. I think Neil will eventually get things sorted, but for now I’ll back them to lose on the road.

Draw/Luton Town - HT/FT @ 4/1

Although I’m backing the home side to edge this, I do think it will be a really tight game. Millwall have drawn three of their last five, and Luton don’t appear to be able to blow teams away. In fact, Luton have been drawing at half-time in six of their last seven league games, with the most-recent Oxford fixture the only exception over the last month of football. 

Millwall will play a simple game of football here and look to put the pressure on the home side from a physical perspective, but these are two new managers looking to get their teams moving away from the bottom three. It won’t be pretty, but I will back Luton to edge it in the second half as my second selection.  

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