Leeds United vs Middlesbrough Prediction: Goals, goals, goals

We’ve got an absolutely sizzling game coming our way from the Championship on Wednesday night as Leeds United host fellow promotion chasers Middlesbrough at Elland Road. This one kicks off at 20:00 and is live on Sky Sports Football as two of the top three goalscorers in the division meet. 

I’ve written an awful lot of previews on the Best League in the World™ this season, and this is genuinely the most excited about a Championship match I’ve been all season. Let’s get stuck into it, and below you can find my Leeds United vs Middlesbrough prediction.

Team News

Having only played on Saturday, Leeds boss Daniel Farke faces a tight turnaround heading into this game. Jayden Bogle played in that win, but is likely to miss this game with a hamstring issue. Meanwhile, left-back Junior Firpo was taken off early on against Derby and faces a significant spell on the sidelines as Farke explained in the press conference on Monday. 

“Sam (Byram) is back in training and I expect him to be available. Junior, doctors expect him to be out four to six weeks with a muscle injury. Some question marks around Jayden, at the moment it’s likely he’ll miss a game, it’ll be a late call.”

Max Wober came on at left-back and was a surprise goalscorer, so is likely to get the nod again despite it not being his natural position. "We knew he could play this position, he’s done it for club and country,” the manager continued. “He’s a solid defender who closes the wings, has a great mentality and always puts a shift in. I think he had a really good performance on Saturday.”

Football Odds

The biggest boost from a Leeds point of view was the return of Ethan Ampadu, ahead of schedule, to the matchday squad. He didn’t get onto the pitch but is expected to make his return to football off the bench on Tuesday night at some point. Ilia Gruev is slightly behind the Welshman in his recovery, while Joe Gelhardt is also on his way back to fitness. 

Middlesbrough's injury picture is beginning to clear up, which will come as a relief to Michael Carrick. Rav van den Berg and Lukas Engel returned to training and will provide more competition for the defence, with Dael Fry also back in contention after nine months out.

Marcus Forss and Aidan Morris are both working hard to return this side of Christmas, but are out for this game, while Boro still have three long-term absentees in the form of Darragh Lenihan, Tommy Smith and Alex Bangura. Emmanuel Latte Lath could start this one ahead of Tommy Conway, as Carrick still shares the minutes between his two number nines. 

Leeds United vs Middlesbrough Odds

Leeds United have been near-perfect at Elland Road this season, picking up 25 points from a possible 30, and scoring 22 goals in the process. It’s no surprise then that they are the 9/10 favourites to win this game, with Middlesbrough available at 3/1 to win their fifth away match, while a draw is 13/5. 

Over 2.5 goals is 5/6 with both of these sides sitting around the average for that statistic this season, while BTTS is 8/11 which could offer value given the attacking strength of both outfits. Joel Piroe is the favourite to score first at 5/1, as he looks to add to his seven goals this term.

Over 2.5 goals @ 5/6

I have to predict goals in this game. Only Norwich (35) have scored more goals in the league this season than these two teams (33 apiece), so it makes perfect sense to back there to be over 2.5 goals here. There’s so much attacking talent on show that I cannot see either team keeping a clean sheet, while importantly Boro’s attacking style should mean this is an open game. 

Leeds have only seen over 2.5 goals in seven of their 19 games this season, but that’s not down to their attacking prowess. They’ve only conceded five home goals in 10 games this season, and they usually completely dominate against teams such as Derby, who were happy to escape with a 2-0 defeat on Saturday. 

But Boro won’t come to defend, and given they managed to find the net against a stubborn Burnley side on Friday night, should be able to test Leeds here. With Latte Lath, Conway and Piroe all on the pitch, there are some lethal finishers on show. As a result, I think this should be a thrilling fixture, with plenty of goals.