Derby County vs Watford Prediction: Rams look to end losing streak

Derby County will be itching to end a three-game losing streak in the Championship on Saturday (15:00) when they welcome Watford to Pride Park. The Rams were in FA Cup action in midweek at Leyton Orient, exiting on penalties after a gruelling 120 minutes in London.

Watford earned a rare point away from home at Cardiff City on Tuesday but they are still without a win in their last four, with three defeats preceding the point in South Wales. Below you will find my Derby County vs Watford prediction, alongside the up-to-date match odds and team news.

Derby County vs Watford Odds

Derby have won two of their last three league games at Pride Park, and a Rams victory can be backed at 5/4, which has an implied probability of 44.4%. The hosts have also won half of their 12 Championship outings on home soil, so this market could be alluring for Saturday.

Watford are a generous 21/10 to pick up the three points, which they have managed just twice on the road in 2024/25. Three of their last six away trips have ended in defeat.

Their latest away contest ended in a draw, which has also struck twice at Pride Park this term. The stalemate is on offer at 11/5.

Four of Derby's last five home games have produced over 2.5 goals, which is on offer at a tempting 1/1 against the Hornets. Both teams to score has been a winning selection in each of Watford's last eight outings in the Championship, and BTTS is marketed at 4/5 here.

Football Odds

Team News

Key defender Eiran Cashin remains out of action for Derby because of a hamstring injury he picked up during December. With Sonny Bradley joining League 1 promotion-chasing Wycombe Wanderers on loan, boss Paul Warne has limited options in central defence. Nat Phillips and Curtis Nelson have been partnered up for the last two games in all competitions, and both should continue in the backline on Saturday.

Full-back Ryan Nyambe is also sidelined with the knee problem he sustained back in October, so Callum Elder and Kane Wilson should continue to add the width to the defence, while Ebou Adams could return to the middle of the park for this one to partner either Kenzo Goudmijn or Liam Thompson.

Top scorer Jerry Yates is expected to lead the line once again, supported on the flanks by Nathaniel Mendez-Laing and Kayden Jackson.

For Watford, boss Tom Cleverley has the bulk of his squad to choose from in the East Midlands. Tom Dele-Bashiru was on the bench at Cardiff after returning from a knee injury which had kept him on the sidelines since October.

Kevin Keben is the only notable member in the medical bay right now, which will give the Hornets a boost as they look to build on the point in midweek. Vakoun Bayo netted his 10th league goal of the campaign last time out, so he will continue up top.

Kwadwo Baah joined him in attack on that occasion, but has often provided support from the wing. Cleverley has never shied away from tweaking his system, which does make guessing his XI that much trickier.

Derby or draw and both teams to score @ 11/8

It's safe to say that this match is not one of the most glamorous affairs on offer in the Championship this weekend, largely owing to some of the disappointing displays on show from the two teams.

Watford will have been relieved to have ended their losing streak at Cardiff, but it wasn't a great performance, so there is still work needed. It also doesn't help that the Hornets are 18th in the away form table this season, with nine points from a possible 39.

Derby are 14th in the home form table with 20 points out of a possible 36. The Rams have mostly looked strong and tough to beat at Pride Park this season and two of their recent appearances here ended in victories over an improving Portsmouth side and West Bromwich Albion.

This was followed by a narrow 1-0 loss at the hands of league leaders Leeds United, which I think you can forgive them for. They will fancy their chances against a Watford side who have lost three of their last six games on the road in the second tier.

However, the Rams rank 23rd for goals from open play this term (11 from 31), which amounts to 35 per cent of their total. They are top for set-piece goals, though, with 13, which could aid them against a Watford side that are fifth for set-piece goals conceded (10) in 2024/25.

This reliance on set-pieces is not exactly healthy for Derby, and they may not always be able to get away with it, which has me thinking Watford could end up taking something from the game.

I've gone for double chance in the Rams' favour, boosted by adding both teams to score. BTTS has landed in five of the last seven matches at Pride Park, which I think is too good to ignore at the weekend.

Over 2.5 goals @ 1/1

This market has delivered in 50 per cent of Derby's home games in the Championship, so this is a fair price for Saturday. It has also struck in four of their previous six contests in the league (including away games).

Watford have seen at least three goals scored in four of their last seven road trips in the second tier, which should also bode well for this clash in Derbyshire. As much as Derby pose a threat from set-pieces, the Hornets boast one of the best individual performers in the division.

Giorgi Chakvetadze has created the most chances in the Championship with 59, from which he has gained five assists. He is Watford's most influential player and he could be key for this threshold being met at the weekend.

Offers

Acca Flex: Place a pre-match 5+ leg Football accumulator and get a CASH bonus up to 100% if all of your selections win or your money back as CASH if one leg lets you down.

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