Bristol City vs Middlesbrough Prediction: Can Boro end losing run?

Two teams with play-off aspirations meet in the Championship on Friday night, as Bristol City host Middlesbrough (19:45, Sky Sports+). The Robins can move into the top six with a win, as they currently sit just two points behind West Bromwich Albion. 

Meanwhile Middlesbrough have lost their way of late and have dropped down to 11th, so they need a win to get themselves back on track. Michael Carrick received the support of the Boro board this week, but he will know that recent results haven’t been good enough. Below you can find my Bristol City vs Middlesbrough predictions.

Team News

Luke McNally saw his season ended against Swansea as he suffered an ACL injury while Liam Manning also confirmed that Ross McCrorie will miss this clash, with the Scot now out for six weeks with a hamstring injury. "He's going to be a few weeks," the head coach confirmed at his press conference. "It's a hamstring injury so probably the best part of six weeks.”

The Robins do have some positive news though, with Cam Pring back in contention having not played since New Year’s Day. The left-back has had a hamstring injury and City have missed him, with McCrorie or Haydon Roberts filling in on the left-hand side of the defence. It may be too soon for him to start this one, but expect to see him on the pitch at some point. 

Yu Hirakawa came on at half-time in the 1-1 draw with Cardiff, and he could come into the XI after a strong performance from the bench. Sam Bell is also in contention for a start, although having only conceded an equaliser in the 90th minute, Manning may be satisfied with the overall performance of his side.  

Carrick may be tempted to ring the changes against Bristol City after four consecutive defeats. Tommy Conway returns to his former club and is likely to lead the line once again, although his new partnership with Kelechi Iheanacho doesn’t seem to have worked so far. 

Ben Doak’s injury which looks set to keep him out until March has clearly impacted the side, with January arrival Morgan Whittaker not hitting the ground running since moving up north. Jonny Howson and Riley McGree are getting closer to returning which would ease Carrick’s woes, although he still has a great squad to work with. 

I’d expect him to go back to a 4-2-3-1 here, with Iheanacho likely to drop out. Finn Azaz should return in the number 10 role while Delano Burgzorg could come in to play off the left, which would allow Hayden Hackney and Aidan Morris to resume their partnership in midfield. Carrick has his back against the wall, and he needs to go back to what he knows in this fixture. 

Bristol City vs Middlesbrough Odds

Bristol City are priced at 5/4 to secure their ninth win of the season at home, and Ashton Gate has been good to them. Only five teams have secured more home points than them this term, so their implied win probability of 44% feels fair. 

A draw can be backed at 23/10 while Middlesbrough are priced at 2/1 to secure their first win in over a month. They’ve won five from 15 on the road so it’s not out of the question they end this poor run of form. 

Over 2.5 goals can be backed at 5/6 having come in during 47% of Boro’s games this term and BTTS is 4/6. Nahki Wells is the favourite to score first at 11/2, having bagged seven so far this season. 

BTTS @ 4/6

I think we should be in for an entertaining clash on Friday night with both of these teams capable of scoring goals. A lot has been made of Boro’s poor form and after four defeats in a row, criticism of Carrick is acceptable - but I still think they are one of the best attacking teams in the division. The absence of Doak is an issue but scoring goals has not been a problem of late. 

In fact, only Watford have stopped them scoring across the last eight Championship fixtures, and their underlying numbers remain strong. They remain the third-best performing team according to xG difference, and should be able to find the net in this one. 

Meanwhile, Bristol City have scored 23 in 16 home matches so far and although they are more stingy than Boro, they’ve scored in five of their last six fixtures. With a variety of attacking talent, I think they will be able to score past an incredibly leaky Boro back line. 

Middlesbrough to win and BTTS @ 9/2

I’ve already explained the BTTS section of this bet, but let’s also back Boro to come out on top at a big price. I know form is a massive factor in terms of confidence, and Conway even alluded to that as he told the press: “"Frustrating - I think that's the word. In the changing room, everyone's still on the same page, no one's letting their head drop. For me, it means everything. When you lose so many games on the bounce, it affects you mentally."

I think this week will have acted as a reset for Boro. Carrick is a good manager in a bad patch of form, and he needs his team to drag him out of this mess right now. They are still creating good chances and should be able to score a couple of goals here, if the players can be efficient in front of goal. On paper, they are better than Bristol City, so I’m backing Boro to turn things around, starting with a vital win on the road here.  

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