Bristol City vs Derby Prediction: Low-scoring affair at Ashton Gate

Bristol City and Derby County are separated by just one point, and they are both on the fringes of the play-offs ahead of their meeting on Friday night (20:00 GMT, Sky Sports Main Event). 

Derby are unbeaten in three and John Eustace’s side are pushing towards the top six, so this fixture takes on major importance. Below you can find my Bristol City vs Derby predictions featuring team news and betting picks.

Team News

Bristol City brought Sinclair Armstrong off the bench at half-time in the win over Sheffield Wednesday, and he could start this one in place of George Earthy. Emil Riis is likely to lead the line, with Scott Twine set to feature again in the final third. 

January arrival Sam Morsy has featured off the bench so far, with Adam Randell and Jason Knight currently first choice. Zak Vyner has been linked with a move to Wrexham this window and missed the Sheffield Wednesday game with a knock.

Derby County should play Patrick Agyemang up front again after he found the net against West Brom, while Rhian Brewster and Ben Brereton Diaz may feature again as wide forwards. Eustace can welcome Matt Clarke back into the XI in defence, as he has served his one-match suspension. 

Football Odds

Today's Football Fixtures

Bristol City vs Derby County Odds

Bristol City are the favourites to win this one at 1/1, giving them an implied win probability of 50%, while Derby are the 11/4 outsiders to take all three points. A draw is 23/10, over 2.5 goals is 11/10.

BTTS is 5/6, and there are plenty of Price Boosts you can find on the link above.

Under 2.5 goals @ 8/11

I cannot see this one being a high-scoring encounter at all. Bristol City have not been all that entertaining this season, and in fact they have the joint-lowest success rate when it comes to their games containing three goals or more. 

Just 41% of their games, or 12 of their 29 fixtures, have seen over 2.5 goals, and they’ve only conceded 15 home goals in 15 games at Ashton Gate this term. Derby are only marginally better in terms of over 2.5 goals, with a success rate of 48% ranking 16th in the Championship. This should be a closely-fought affair, with limited goalmouth action. 

Bristol City to win to nil @ 2/1

I think the home side will probably edge this game, despite Derby’s upturn in form. The Rams have failed to show any consistency this season and this is a tough away test - although they have got the third-best away record in the division which does concern me. 

Bristol City sit in seventh and should have enough to win this battle, but it won’t be pretty if they manage it. 

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