Monaco v Benfica Prediction: Can 100/30 Di Maria produce some Di Magia?

It’s Monaco vs Benfica on Wednesday night, a big game between the high-flying French outfit and an Eagles side losing their way in the competition.TNT Sports 6 is where you'll be able to watch the game in the UK, from 20:00.

Jamie Pacheco has a 7/4 Bet Builder and a 100/30 anytime scorer going for him in this one as he writes up his preview and gives us his Monaco vs Benfica Predictions at Betfred Insights...

*You can check out all of our Football Odds over at betfred.com

Monaco

Monaco have been one of the surprise packages of the competitions so far, occupying a four-way share of second-place alongside Sporting, Brest and Inter Milan, on 10 points.

Curiously, Brest were the side they beat 3-2 at the weekend in Ligue 1 to leave them in second place behind only PSG. They’ve won eight of their 12 league matches with two draws and two defeats, so are in line to do well across the two main competitions they’re involved in.

One thing Benfica need to be aware of is that this is a side who has plenty of goalscorers in their team. 12 different players have scored in Ligue 1 already and seven have also netted in the Champions League, so they’re clearly not just reliant on one or two men for goals, always a good sign.

Swiss international Denis Zakaria returned after a month’s lay-off at the weekend and is an important player for them in midfield, while Mohammad Salisu also returned in that game in defence and should feature here, too.

Possible XI: Majecki, Vanderson, Kehrer, Mawissa, Salisu, Zakaria, Ben Seghir, Golovin, Akliouche, Magassa/Minamino, Embolo.

Benfica

The less said about Benfica’s last performance in this competition away at Bayern a few weeks ago, the better.

They seemed to almost throw the towel in before the match had got underway by leaving out the likes of Angel Di Maria and Vangelis Pavlidis, two crucial players in attack. Once the match did start, all they did was defend with plenty of men behind the ball, the game plan clearly being one of damage limitation where the best-possible outcome was only ever going to be 0-0.

On another day they may have got just that but a 67^thminute strike from Jamal Musiala was enough to win the game; Benfica had just 26.5% possession and one shot (off target, by the way) the whole match, so you can see how they were up against it in Germany.

Still, maybe it was all part of a bigger picture because a few days later they beat Porto 4-1 in the league, an excellent result that means they’re still very much part of the title race.

But they won’t want to lose momentum in this competition and having started well, that defeat to Bayern and worse still the one to Feyenoord at home before that, means another loss here could ruin their chances of making the next round.

There are no injury concerns for Bruno Lage and they come here high on confidence after beating Estrela da Amadora 7-0 in the Cup; Di Maria scored a hat-trick in that one.

Possible XI:  Trubin, Carreras, Otamendi, Araujo, Bah, Kokcu, Florentino, Aursnes, Di Maria, Pavlidis, Arturkoglu.

Monaco vs Benfica Odds

Monaco are 5/4, implied probability of 44%, with the draw 5/2 (28%) and Benfica 21/10, which is 32%.

At first glance that looks about right with Monaco strong at home in this competition so far, beating Red Star Belgrade (5-1) and Barcelona no less (2-1) and backing up those results with impressive domestic performances, too. They’re also four points and 16 places better off than their opponents in the table.

The one and only match between these two in this competition was way back in 2014 and ended in a 0-0 draw. That was some Monaco side, by the way, featuring Dimitar Berbatov, Fabinho, Joao Moutinho and Bernardo Silva.

You could just about make a case for the draw at 5/2 as the best value of the three options. After all, Benfica have lost just twice in 12 matches since Bruno Lage took over. But then again, they haven’t been involved in a draw on his watch. With none of the three prices standing out, on we go.

Bet Builder - Monaco to get the most corners (4/5) + Both Teams to Score (8/15) @ 7/4

Monaco may not be 4/4 in terms of winning their matches in the CL this season but they’re 4/4 when it comes to getting the most corners. Here is the corner head-to-head record, Monaco’s corners first, in their European matches to date:  6-3, 8-5, 4-2 and 10-0 (!), this last one against Barcelona.

Benfica are 2/4 for getting the most corners this season, while the fact that the French outfit have had 28 corners this campaign in Europe compared to Benfica’s 11 tells its own story. So, there’s not much wrong with odds of 4/5 the hosts getting more here.

And to that you can add both teams to score at 8/15. It was a winner in 3/4 of Monaco’s games in this year’s CL, and 2/4 of Benfica’s; these are both naturally attacking sides and I wouldn't put anyone off backing over 2.5 goals (4/6) or even over 3.5 goals (13/8) as well.

After all, Monaco’s last two league games ended in 3-1 and 3-2 wins for them, while Benfica’s finished in 2-1 and 4-1 wins. But it may be worth playing it a little safer this time with just the both teams to score selection.

The double comes to 7/4.

To Score Anytime

If we think Benfica can score at least once, then who could get it?

It was a slow start to the season for Di Maria who had pretty much packed his bags to go and play back home in Argentina before a volte-face that resulted in him staying on in Lisbon for at least one more season. The change in plans, sparked by death threats if he was to re-sign with his boyhood club Rosario Central, clearly affected his early season form and he looked off the pace.

But things started improving and he scored his first of the season in Bruno Lage’s first match in charge at Santa Clara, and then netted again in that 4-0 win over Atlético. In his last two games, he scored twice against Porto in that 4-1 win and grabbed that hat-trick at the weekend, so is clearly in his best scoring form of the season.

Monaco are a side he knows well from his time at PSG and has a relatively strong record against them with six goals in 16 games, to go with a further eight assists.

In good form and on penalty duty as ever, the 100/30 on him scoring anytime looks the pick of the goalscorer prices.

As per usual, Benfica’s K Arturkoglu is of interest as well at 5/2 given he’s already scored three this season in the competition. Monaco’s Takumi Minamino (5/2) and Maghnes Akliouche (11/4) are the only players to have scored two goals for Monaco in the CL this season. But we’re happy to just stick with Di Maria.

Jamie Pacheco predominantly covers Cricket and European Football for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out his Football Betting Tips, along with those from the rest of the team, at our Football hub page...