Lille vs Fenerbahce Prediction: Edin to extend early-season scoring streak

Arguably the tie of the Champions League third qualifying round, Lille and Fenerbahce's first leg encounter on Tuesday (19:30) takes place at Valenciennes FC's Stade du Hainaut, rather than Les Douges' Stade Pierre-Mauroy, due to the ongoing Paris 2024 Olympics.

Read below for my Lille vs Fenerbahce prediction and all the latest team news and match odds ahead of this fascinating fixture in northern France.

Football Odds

Team News

Lille are yet to contest a competitive game this season but played their first pre-season friendly on July 9, the first of six last month. Importantly, the last of those, a 3-1 victory over Celta Vigo, saw the return of star striker Jonathan David, who was afforded an extended break due to his involvement at the 2024 Copa America with Canada.

The 24-year-old has scored at least 13 goals in every Ligue 1 season since joining from Belgian side Gent in the summer of 2020 and continues to be linked with a move away to bigger clubs.

Nevertheless, he's in line to feature on Tuesday, though there is a chance he begins the game on the bench as he works his way back to full fitness. Mohamed Bayo, who spent last season on loan at Le Havre, has impressed in his absence, scoring against Genk and Celta Vigo last month.

Lille have lost a couple of important players this summer, notably Yusuf Yazici (unattached) and Leny Yoro (Manchester United), but have made some interesting additions to their side.

Osame Sahraoui and Ngalayel Mukau are both looking to make their competitive debuts after seven-figure moves from Heerenveen and KV Mechelen respectively, as are Thomas Meunier and Ethan Mbappe, who joined as free agents.

Fenerbahce beat Swiss side Lugano 6-4 on aggregate to advance to the third qualifying round and head coach Jose Mourinho could hand out a couple of debuts himself on Tuesday.

Ex-Newcastle United speedster Allan Saint-Maximin was an unused substitute against Lugano and the Al-Ahli loanee will hope for some minutes in the Black and Yellow this week alongside big-money signing Youssef En Nesyri, who left Sevilla after scoring 51 La Liga goals across four-and-a-half seasons in Andalusia.

Fellow summer signings Caglar Soyuncu and Rade Krunic will be looking to make their third Fenerbahce starts alongside a host of familiar names to Premier League audiences such as Dusan Tadic and Fred.

Lille vs Fenerbahce Odds

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Lille are 11/10 favourites to take a lead to Turkey next week, giving them an implied win probability of 47.6%, while Fenerbahce can be backed at 23/10 to triumph in France, offering them a 30.3% chance.

The draw is available at 11/5, both teams to score at 8/11, and over 2.5 total goals at 10/11.

Lille forward David is the shortest price to strike first at 4/1, followed by teammate Andrej Ilic (11/2).

Double Chance & Both Teams To Score - Lille or Draw & Yes @ 13/10

Lille's chances of winning on Tuesday are hampered by their inability to play the first leg at Stade Pierre-Mauroy. The stadium is currently being used to stage the handball tournaments at the Paris 2024 Olympics so Lille have been forced to temporarily relocate 50km to Stade du Hainaut in Valenciennes.

That, in part, is why I am reluctant to fully back Les Douges for the win on Tuesday. Lille were so strong at Stade Pierre-Mauroy in Ligue 1 last term, picking up more points at home (37) than any other side in the division and winning four of their five European games there, including a 2-1 victory over Aston Villa in regulation time.

The effect of moving away, even if it's just for one match, cannot be underestimated, with supporters potentially finding it difficult to replicate the same atmosphere. That gives Fenerbahce a chance at stealing a win in France but given their difficulties in beating Lugano, who were also forced to play their home leg at a different stadium, I think Lille are the more likely victors and should be backed on the double chance.

Fenerbahce and Lugano both scored in Switzerland and Turkey in their second-round qualifier and I wouldn't be surprised to see both teams find the net again on Tuesday given the summer changes that have taken place at Lille and Fenerbahce, disrupting both sides' defence.

Edin Dzeko Anytime Scorer @ 11/5

You never lose it, do you? That's a question probably not applicable to us mere mortals who do, in fact, see their previous powers fade away after time, but Edin Dzeko is living proof that goals aren't just a young man's game.

The 38-year-old enjoyed prolific spells at Wolfsburg, Manchester City, AS Roma and Inter Milan before taking his talents to Turkey last summer and shining in Istanbul, firing 25 goals in his first season at Fenerbahce.

Dzeko has returned to action in fine form this past month, hitting a hat-trick in his first competitive game of the campaign, a 4-3 victory over Lugano in the first leg of Fenerbahce's Champions League second-round qualifier.

The Bosnian subsequently struck his side's equaliser in their second leg, when the Turks eventually ran out 2-1 winners at home to set up a third-round qualifier with Lille.

Dzeko is sure to start again in the Champions League on Tuesday and he will fancy his chances of scoring in a third-straight match to reach five for the campaign before the new Turkish Super Lig season has even kicked off.

Offers

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