Cardiff City vs Swansea City Prediction: Another derby day draw

Cardiff City welcome bitter rivals Swansea City to the Cardiff City Stadium on Saturday (12:30, Sky Sports Main Event) in the Championship. The reverse fixture was a 1-1 draw back in August, which Cardiff salvaged through Callum Robinson in the 79th minute.

The Bluebirds haven't recorded a home win in over two months but they head into the South Wales derby having drawn their last three fixtures in the second tier. The Swans have won two of their previous four appearances in the league, but both came at home. Below you will find my Cardiff City vs Swansea City prediction, joined by the latest match odds and team news.

Cardiff City vs Swansea City Odds

Cardiff are 13/8 to earn the bragging rights on Saturday. They won this fixture 2-0 last season but their latest league win here this term was at the beginning of November.

Swansea have won two of their last five away trips in the Championship, so their 7/4 price, which has an implied probability of 36.4%, offers value for Saturday.

The hosts have drawn in each of their previous three contests in the second tier, while the Swans experienced a stalemate with West Bromwich Albion in their most recent league outing. The draw is valued at 9/4 (30.8%) for this clash, which is an enticing price.

Both teams to score has struck in each of Cardiff's last four league games, while there have been goals at both ends in two of the previous four Championship meetings with Swansea. BTTS can be backed at 4/5.

Football Odds

Team News

After their stalemate with Watford on Tuesday, Cardiff escaped without any fresh injury or suspension concerns heading into the derby. Aaron Ramsey (muscular) and Roko Simic (knock) remain confined to the treatment room, however.

Boss Omer Riza will welcome back forward Robinson, who netted the equaliser at Swansea earlier in the campaign, from a three-game suspension, so Chris Willock's involvement from the off is now under threat.

Young forward Cian Ashford has had four goal contributions in his last five appearances, including a goal in midweek, so Robinson's return shouldn't impact his place in the team.

Rubin Colwill has played as a false nine for the past few games. Robinson's return might allow the Welshman to return to a supporting role, while Yakou Meite and Kion Etete are alternative options to lead the line. Perry Ng and Callum O'Dowda will also provide attacking support as the full-backs.

For Swansea, Luke Williams is without the services of Kristian Pedersen (unspecified) and Oliver Cooper (foot), while there are concerns for both Harry Darling and Ben Cabango, neither of whom were involved in the FA Cup defeat at Southampton last weekend.

Williams went with a relatively strong XI against the Saints, so too many changes aren't expected at Cardiff. Lawrence Vigouroux is expected to return in goal, while forward Liam Cullen should be restored to the attack. Eom Ji-sung and Ronald will likely keep their places on the flanks.

Draw @ 9/4

There are 10 points separating the two teams heading into Saturday and neither have particularly impressed this season. The Swans are comfortably in mid-table and right now that feels like their ceiling year on year.

Cardiff are battling for survival, something which was expected last year but they somehow managed to punch above their weight under former boss Erol Bulut. The Bluebirds head into derby day in respectable form. They'll take confidence from their four league games unbeaten but the last three have all been draws.

The Swans have two home wins recently but their two latest away trips have ended in defeat. It feels like a stalemate could be on the cards again, which was the outcome when they met back in August.

Cardiff are in a habit of drawing at the moment, while Swansea have found life tough on the road this season. They were beaten by another struggling side in Hull City away from home recently, and this was followed by a hammering at the hands of Portsmouth.

I'd argue that the visitors edge their rivals on quality, but we don't tend to see it enough on their travels. I think Cardiff will be fired up for derby day, and they should have enough to record a fourth consecutive draw in the Championship.

Under 2.5 goals @ 4/6

I do also believe we could be in for some Deja vu at the weekend. A 1-1 scoreline was played out in Swansea earlier in the season, and I think we could be in for another low-scoring game here.

Each of Cardiff's last three league games have ended 1-1, while all of their previous five home games in the Championship have produced less than three goals.

Swansea's last league appearance also ended 1-1 against West Bromwich Albion, while seven of their 13 away fixtures have ended with under 2.5 goals scored.

I think this selection offers value yet again in the South Wales derby, as this could once again be a tight, cagey affair.

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