Burnley vs Derby County Prediction: Home win to nil expected

Past critics of Scott Parker, myself included, are slowly having to change their opinions as the Championship season progresses. His side earned a 1-1 draw on Friday night at home to Middlesbrough, to take their unbeaten run to six matches, and keep them well in contention for the automatic promotion places. 

Next up, they host a struggling Derby County outfit at Turf Moor. The Rams lost 2-0 at Leeds this weekend, and are sliding towards the relegation zone at a rapid rate (19:45, Sky Sports+). Below you can find my Burnley vs Derby County predictions, featuring team news and betting tips. 

Team News

Parker kept with his attacking line-up on Friday night, choosing to stick with the impressive Jeremy Sarmiento in the number 10 role ahead of Hannibal Mejbri. It feels like Sarmiento has locked down that position now, but the three players in front of him, Jay Rodriguez, Luca Koleosho and Jaidon Anthony all performed below their usual standards in what was a testing evening in terms of the conditions. 

On a positive note, defenders Joe Worrall and Hjamlar Ekdal made their long-awaited returns to the squad, but Parker is unlikely to tinker with a back four that has performed at such a high level so far this season. Bashir Humphreys retained his place at left-back, with Lucas Pires a more attacking option that could be called upon for this home game. 

Football Odds

Mike Tresor, Manuel Benson, Lyle Foster, Jordan Beyer, and Hannes Delcroix are all getting closer to returns, but Aaron Ramsay remains out for the long-term with an ACL injury. 

Derby meanwhile switched to a back five for the trip to Elland Road, and could do the same thing for another tough test. It is a question of how Paul Warne wants to approach these back-to-back away games, with a back four seemingly suiting this squad more than a five. It was a flexible system at Elland Road, but ultimately they couldn’t land a glove on the opposition.

Jerry Yates will continue to work up front, while Kayden Jackson and Nathaniel Mendez-Laing offered support to him in Yorkshire. All three were withdrawn in the second half, with Warne looking ahead to this fixture with freshness in mind. 

In a major boost, Derby will welcome back Ebou Adams and Callum Elder to their squad tomorrow night after both of them served suspensions against Leeds, with Adams in particular in fine form this season. He should come back into the midfield and Kenzo Goudmijn could also be given a start in order to help the Rams gain a foothold in the middle of the pitch. However, Warne may choose to prioritise the big game on Friday night, as they host fellow relegation rivals Portsmouth, so he may make more changes than we expect. 

Burnley vs Derby County Odds

Burnley are unbeaten at Turf Moor this season, so it’s unsurprising that they are 4/6 to win this game, giving them a 60% implied win probability. A draw is 9/4 while Derby are available at 4/1 to secure on their second win on the road this season. Their other success came at the CBS Arena, in the game that ended Mark Robins’ seven-year tenure at Coventry City.

Over 2.5 goals has only come in during three of Burnley’s 19 games so far, but it’s priced at 11/8, while BTTS is 6/5. Rodriguez is the favourite to open the scoring at 5/1 but he has only scored twice so far this term. 

Burnley to win to nil @ 7/5

An obvious pick, but one that is longer odds than I would have guessed, so I’m more than happy to back it. Burnley have now conceded just seven goals in 19 Championship matches, giving them by far the best defence in the league. Only three of their games this season have seen over 2.5 goals while the seven games prior to the 1-1 draw with Middlesbrough saw them concede their first goal in eight games. 

They should completely dominate this game against a really blunt Derby attack. Warne seems to have lost the backing of the Derby fans and his post-match comments at Elland Road - “We are playing a Premier League team with a League One team with a bit of sugar on top,” haven’t done much to help his cause. 

I think this will be another away defeat for the Rams, in which they fail to trouble a side packed with quality. 

Burnley -1 @ 11/5

Happy to back a big home win here, and although I’m tempted by the -2 handicap, Burnley still aren’t in top gear given the attacking talent they possess. However, they should have more than enough to win this game by at least two goals, and I’d expect their unbeaten home record to be extended by another comfortable win. 

Koleosho and Sarmiento have an abundance of quality, and I think Warne would probably accept another narrow defeat, but that speaks volumes about where Derby are at right now. His honesty may come back to bite him, but I think there’s a clear gulf in class between these two teams, and there’s good value to be had on a big home win.

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