Wolfsburg vs Paderborn Prediction: Eriksen to save hosts?

We’ve got the first leg of a Bundesliga relegation play-off to look forward to on Thursday night as Wolfsburg host Paderborn at the Volkswagen Arena (19:30 BST). 

Wolfsburg have had a dismal season, finishing 16th and therefore have to play for their Bundesliga future. Below you can find my Wolfsburg vs Paderborn predictions for this crucial relegation play-off. 

Team News

The hosts will be without former Sheffield United midfielder Vinicius Souza for this one, as he is suspended having picked up his fifth yellow of the season. He’ll be back for the second leg on Tuesday, but will be missed here. 

Dieter Hecking will also monitor winger Patrick Wimmer who has been in and out with a muscle issue. Rogerio, Cleiton Santos, Jenson Seelt, Kilian Fischer and Jonas Wind are all likely to miss out again, along with long-term absentees Maximilian Arnold and Bence Dardai. 

Arnold, the captain, is the biggest miss, and injuries have certainly hampered the 2009 Bundesliga champions this term. Christian Eriksen will look to provide thrust from the centre of the park. 

Goalkeeper Dennis Seimen put in a sterling display on the final day for Paderborn as they leapfrogged Hannover to secure third place and this play-off spot. He will start again for Ralf Kettemann, but the gaffer will be without the suspended Mika Baur. 

Raphael Obermair is out with an achilles issue, while Marcel Hoffmeier is a long-term absentee. 

Football Odds

Today's Football Fixtures

Wolfsburg vs Paderborn Odds

Wolfsburg are priced at 8/11 to win this game, giving them an implied win probability of 58%. A draw can be backed at 11/2 while an away win is 7/2. Given we have a crucial second leg to come, both teams may be defensive, and under 2.5 goals is 1/1. 

BTTS is 4/5, while Mohamed Amoura is the favourite to score first at 11/2. 

Wolfsburg to win @ 8/11 

I will back the Bundesliga side to get the win in this home leg, and I think Paderborn represent relatively good opponents for them. They hadn’t won any of their last four prior to the final day, with defeats to the top two, Schalke (2-3) and Elversberg (1-5) in that time. They’ve done extremely well to get in on the final day, and Hannover’s draws have cost them a top-three spot. 

Wolfsburg meanwhile have lost just one of their final five games of the Bundesliga season, and that was a 1-0 narrow defeat to champions Bayern Munich. They’ve improved since Hecking returned as manager, and the quality of this side should be able to get them out of danger. Home win in this first leg. 

Christian Eriksen to assist a goal @ 11/4

The hosts need their star players to step up to the plate and it does feel like the gap in quality will become apparent on Thursday night. My second selection focuses on Eriksen, who will be trusted to create things in midfield. 

He’s been pretty influential in a difficult season, bagging three goals and 10 assists in 31 appearances in the league, and he should take all set pieces for the hosts. He should be able to unlock a second-tier defence, and I think the odds on him landing an assist are worth backing. 

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