Saturday BTTS Tips: Can we get back-to-back weekly winners?

What's that in our rear-view mirror, is it a winner, is it a winner? Why, yes, yes it is. Last week saw us record out third Saturday BTTS Tips winner of the season, all at 10/1 or longer (12.87/1 last week).

This time around we are just over that double-digit odds mark with five games, including one from the Bundesliga...

Leg 1 - Fulham vs Brighton & Hove Albion @ 8/15

Ah, the age-old battle of do we believe the cracking record of one side or the stinky one of the other? 

Brighton have been a BTTS darling throughout the 23/24 campaign, with no fewer than 81% of their Premier League games resulting in this bet being paid out as a winner. Fulham on the other hand, are only above lowly Everton, at 46% through 26 games.

Yet, Marco Silva’s side delivered in all four of their league games in the month of February, with results of 2-2, 3-1, 1-2 and 1-2 on their resume. That indicates a clear uplift in performance in front of goal. 

The only game Brighton played in the same period that didn’t result in both teams scoring was the 0-5 away win at Sheffield United, when the home side were down to ten-men early following the really poor challenge from Mason Holgate. Recent form for both says this is a strong opening leg for this acca play.

Leg 2 - Plymouth Argyle vs Ipswich Town @ 8/11

Games down at Home Park have been on my radar for months for both this and the Over 2.5 column. 

The Pilgrims though have been suffering a bit of a mid-season swoon though when it comes to scoring in front of their own supporters. Defeats to West Brom and Leeds United in recent weeks both came without scoring but before those back-to-back games, it was eight-straight matches in all competitions where this bet would have been a winner down in Devon.

Ipswich have been BTTS juggernauts at Portman Road, with 82% of matches up in Suffolk coming in for this bet. On the road, they have been far better defensively, which logically makes little sense, yet we are now in the final third of the season, so that is certainly a notable trend.

In four of their past five matches in all competitions on the road though, they’ve failed to keep a clean sheet. Only a 0-4 victory at the New Den stopped it from being five-straight since a New Year’s Day goalless draw at Stoke.

I like both sets of supporters to get at least one moment to cheer about on Saturday afternoon.

Leg 3 - Derby County vs Port Vale @ Evens

The biggest price of the fivefold comes from Pride Park where promotion-chasing Derby County welcome in relegation-threatened Port Vale. When you put it like that, this game doesn’t feel like an obvious BTTS play but Paul Warne’s side have not been keeping clean sheets in recent weeks.

A fortnight ago, the Rams defeated Stevenage 1-0 in front of their own supporters. The last EFL League 1 game at the ground before that where the home side didn’t concede at least once was all the way back on November 11, when Barnsley were beaten 3-0. That is an awfully long time for a run like that. Eight-straight home games were BTTS winners in that spell. On Tuesday, they squandered a first-half lead and lost 1-2 to Charlton Athletic.

Port Vale don’t score many but are at 50% for the season for this bet away from home. When you look at how many times Derby County fail to keep the opposition out, throwing this leg in really boosts the price and feels eminently plausible. It isn’t just a punt.

Leg 4 - Grimsby Town vs Forest Green Rovers @ 8/13

I’m loving Grimsby Town home matches at the moment as they are terrific for both BTTS and Over 2.5 accumulators. 

Get this, the last time BTTS didn’t pay out on a match at Blundell Park was all the way back on October 14, when ten-man Grimsby lost 0-2 at home to Accrington Stanley. That is a run of ten-straight games, which is the longest streak currently still active for this bet across the top six-tiers of the English football pyramid.

I know Forest Green are pretty poor but they did go to Barrow a couple of weeks back and shocked them with a 1-2 victory. They also took a point from their home game with Wrexham in midweek. 

In reality, unless Grimsby are playing against a defence like the Tony Adams’ led Arsenal or a Franco Baresi led AC Milan, the way they are playing, I’m putting them up for BTTS against pretty much anyone on their level.

Leg 5 - VfL Bochum vs RB Leipzig @ 4/7

Every week I like to look at stats away from English football to see if I can find a compelling case for a bit of a random game to be inserted into any of the Saturday accumulator columns that I write. Well I’ve found this one from over in the Bundesliga, where BTTS feels like it has a great shot of landing.

Fifth-placed RB Leipzig have seen this bet come in a lot recently on their travels. In fact, it is eight-straight matches away from home where they have both scored and conceded. You have to go back to November 4, when a 2-0 defeat at Mainz was the last time you would not have been paid out for this bet in an away match for the Red Bulls.

Couple that with the fact VfL Bochum have found their scoring boots in recent weeks, the home side have found the back of the net in every game they’ve played in 2024, then you can see why it has all the makings of a BTTS winner.

You can check out all of our Football Accumulator Tips on our Acca hub page...