Brentford vs Chelsea Stats-Based Bet Builder Tips: 12/1 punt in west London derby

My last Bet Builder attempt involving Chelsea came agonisingly close, with three of the four legs landing. All I needed was a Fulham goal to score a 20/1 winner, but Josh King's effort at Stamford Bridge was ruled out - incorrectly so - following an intervention by the VAR.

Undeterred, I return for another west London derby, this time Brentford's Saturday evening (20:00 BST, Sky Sports Main Event) game against Chelsea. Below are my Brentford vs Chelsea Stats-Based Bet Builder Tips, which offer odds of 12/1.

Player to Score at Anytime - Joao Pedro (CHE)

Joao Pedro has made a terrific start to life at Chelsea, scoring five goals in his first six competitive appearances (five starts). The only game in which he has started for the Blues and failed to find the net was in the opening-weekend goalless stalemate with Crystal Palace.

The 23-year-old has scored in his last two outings for Enzo Maresca's side, finding the equaliser in their 5-1 win at West Ham United and the first in their 2-0 victory over Fulham at Stamford Bridge.

Premier League Odds

Joao Pedro is now on the hunt for a third consecutive London derby goal, although in six previous games against Brentford, two as a Watford player and four for Brighton, he has never managed to breach the Bees' defence, and, in fact, was sent off against them in the Seagulls' 4-2 defeat at the Gtech in April this year.

I'm predicting a happier outcome for the Brazilian on Saturday, with Brentford having conceded five goals already in the Premier League this season, three in a 3-1 defeat at Nottingham Forest, and two in a 2-1 loss at Sunderland last time out.

With Liam Delap sidelined, Joao Pedro is a sure-fire starter and should play the majority, if not all, of Saturday's game, while regular penalty-taker Cole Palmer is an injury doubt, so the Selecao star, so reliable from 12 yards, is in line to take spot-kicks at the Gtech.

Dango Ouattara (BRE) Total Shots on Target - 1+

Summer signing Dango Ouattara made a dream start to life at the Gtech, scoring the only goal of the game on his debut against Aston Villa.  The 23-year-old was denied by Villa goalkeeper Emiliano Martinez with his initial effort, but tucked home the rebound to fire Brentford in front.

Ouattara wasn't able to make the same impact at the Stadium of Light just before the international break, with Igor Thiago scoring the visitors' only goal, but the Burkina Faso international forced a save from Black Cats 'keeper Robin Roefs with his only shot of the match.

Playing for Bournemouth last season, Ouattara averaged 0.6 shots on target per game in the Premier League, a more than respectable figure considering 11 of his 32 appearances came as a substitute. He didn't register a shot on target in his sole outing against Chelsea, but in 2023/24, he forced one save at Vitality Stadium and two at Stamford Bridge.

The forward is Brentford's record signing, so he should play a large part of Saturday's match, helping the above selection to land.

Nathan Collins (BRE) Total Shots - 1+

Backing opposition centre-backs to take shots against Chelsea is something I've already spoken about this season. In my Chelsea vs Crystal Palace Stats-Based Bet Builder Tips a month ago, I backed the wrong defender - Maxence Lacroix - instead of Chris Richards, who got his head to a set-piece delivery in the ninth minute of that goalless draw at Stamford Bridge.

In Chelsea's second game, against West Ham United, the Blues conceded three shots to centre-backs. Nayef Aguerd missed the target with both of his headed efforts from corners, while Max Kilman was similarly inaccurate with his header from a corner. Towering Czech midfielder Tomas Soucek and English striker Callum Wilson also had headed shots fail to hit the target.

And so, I subsequently tipped Fulham defender Joachim Andersen to shoot at least once; the Dane duly delivered, and more, as he recorded two efforts against the Blues, the second forcing Robert Sanchez into a save.

Brentford vs Chelsea Odds

Chelsea's next task is to keep Brentford centre-backs Nathan Collins and Sepp van den Berg quiet. Both tried their luck in the Bees' Premier League opener at Nottingham Forest, with Collins shooting once and his defensive partner twice.

It's Collins who I'm backing to record at least one effort on Saturday, with the 6ft4in Republic of Ireland international averaging 0.4 shots per game in last season's top-flight.

The 24-year-old shot three times in his country's 2-2 draw with Hungary last week, and once in their 2-1 defeat to Armenia on Tuesday - all four were headed attempts.

Brentford Total Tackles - Over 20.5

Brentford recorded 20 tackles against Forest and 28 against Villa before dropping down to nine at Sunderland last time out.

The Bees made 23 in last season's corresponding fixture with Chelsea, and 22 in the 2023/24 campaign (19 in 2022/23).

Today's Football Fixtures

Fulham racked up a whopping 29 tackles against Chelsea just before the international break, and in a Saturday evening west London derby, I wouldn't be surprised to see Brentford make 20+.

Offers

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