Boca Juniors vs Universidad Catolica Prediction: Sudamericana demotion looms large for Boca

There’s a three-way battle between leaders Universidad Catolica, Cruzeiro (second) and Boca Juniors (third) for top spot in Group D of the Copa Libertadores; all Universidad need to do is avoid defeat to Boca Juniors at the Estadio Alberto J. Armando (9:30 pm local Thursday, 1:30 am BST Friday).

Boca, meanwhile, will secure first place if they win in Buenos Aires and Cruzeiro fail to beat Barcelona SC. Read on for my Boca Juniors vs Universidad Catolica predictions, alongside team news and match odds.

Team News

Santiago Ascacibar missed Boca Juniors’ 1-1 draw at home to Cruzeiro last week as he was serving a suspension, but the 29-year-old is back available for his side’s final group game.

Edinson Cavani (back), Rodrigo Battaglia (Achilles), Agustin Marchesin and Carlos Palacios (both knee) remain sidelined for Claudio Ubeda’s charges, while Ayrton Costa is banned after picking up his third yellow card of the campaign in last week's 1-1 draw with Cruzeiro.

Football Odds

As for Universidad Catolica, Gary Medel misses out on a reunion with his former club due to a muscle injury, with Francisco Rossel (unspecified), Tomas Asta-Buruaga, Ignacio Perez and Diego Valencia (all knee) also sidelined.

Head-to-head record

Boca Juniors have won four of the five games between the two clubs, including last month’s reverse fixture in Santiago de Chile (1-2).

The only time Universidad Catolica avoided defeat against the Argentine giants was in Buenos Aires in November 2005, when they drew 2-2 in the first leg of their Copa Sudamericana semi-final tie.

Boca Juniors vs Universidad Catolica Odds

Boca Juniors are 2/5 to claim a second home win of the group, having followed up a 3-0 victory over Barcelona SC in Buenos Aires with a 1-1 draw against Cruzeiro last time out at the Estadio Alberto J. Armando.

Those odds imply a 71.4% probability of success, with Universidad Catolica 7/1, or a 12.5% chance, to maintain their perfect away record, having beaten both Cruzeiro and Barcelona SC 2-1 on Brazilian and Ecuadorian soil, respectively.

The draw, meanwhile, is priced at 3/1.

Bet Builder - Universidad Catolica +2 Handicap & Boca Juniors Over 17.5 Shots @ 13/8

Universidad Catolica have won both of their Group D away games, beating Cruzeiro and Barcelona SC by a 2-1 scoreline, and their only defeat of the campaign was marginal as they fell to a 2-1 loss at home to Boca Juniors on 8 April.

The Chilean club have only lost seven of their last 29 games across all competitions in regulation time, and all seven defeats were by a single goal, with their last reverse by 2+ coming at home to O'Higgins last November (0-2).

Boca Juniors, meanwhile, won their first two Group D games against Universidad Catolica and Barcelona SC (3-0), but have failed to win any of their last three, following up 1-0 defeats away to Cruzeiro and Barcelona SC with a 1-1 draw at home to the former last time out.

The hosts may well win in Buenos Aires to seal their knockout spot at the expense of their Chilean counterparts, but I don't see it being a comfortable victory for the Argentines.

I'm also adding in over 17.5 Shots for Boca Juniors, who have recorded 19 and 28, respectively, in their two home matches against Barcelona SC and Cruzeiro.

Universidad Catolica conceded 16 and 13, respectively, away to Cruzeiro and Barcelona SC, and with Boca Juniors going all out for the win here, I expect even more.

Result After 30 Minutes - Draw @ 4/6

Boca were 1-0 up after 16 minutes of their away win at Universidad Catolica last month, but I think clear-cut chances will be few and far between in the opening third of their reverse fixture.

Just two goals have been scored across the Chilean club's last two Libertadores games, both in the second half of their 2-0 victory over Barcelona SC last time out, while only one was struck in the opening third of their 2-1 win at Cruzeiro, and that was in the 29th minute.

Boca took a 15th-minute lead in their 1-1 draw with Cruzeiro last week, but their three previous Group D games had failed to see a goal scored before the 30th minute.

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