Blackburn vs Newcastle Predictions: Raining goals at Ewood Park

The live game on BBC One on Tuesday night comes from Ewood Park as Championship Blackburn play Premier League side Newcastle United in the fifth-round of the FA Cup.

Neil Monnery expects it to be a high-scorer and has picked out three Bets for you to consider as he takes us through his Blackburn vs Newcastle Predictions in Betfred Insights' full match preview...

There can’t be many teams more disappointed with how their season has unfolded than Eddie Howe’s side across the football pyramid. European football might still be a target but winning the FA Cup has to be an extremely high-priority for the side from Tyneside. Missing out on European competitions via the league would certainly be made-up for should they lift a trophy at Wembley.

How Newcastle fans must have watched the Carabao Cup Final with a sense of ‘what if’ as they were only a Kieran Trippier mistake away from a two-legged semi-final with Middlesbrough and then potentially a final against a depleted Liverpool side.

One problem that has been seen time and time again for those watching Newcastle has been just how poor they have been defensively. The opposition can play through the midfield like a hot knife through butter at times. Both Kieran Trippier and Dan Burn have endured tough spells in the full-back positions at various points in this campaign.

In addition, what on Earth has happened to Sven Botman? He was a colossus a year ago and since returning from injury, he’s struggled mightily. Put all those things together and you can see why you have to go down to 14th placed Bournemouth to find a poorer defensive record in the top-flight.

They play a Blackburn side on Tuesday evening, who themselves are looking back at their last campaign and wishing they could go back there. A late-season collapse saw the Riversiders miss out on the play-offs and a potential shot at the Premier League.

When the draw was made, Newcastle fans were eager to see how their former player Jon Dahl Tomasson was doing in management, but their former striker has since left the Lancashire club, with John Eustace brought in to attempt to steady the ship and you never know, make a late dash for one of those all-important play-off spots.

The early returns though have not been good. Rovers currently sit just four points away from the drop-zone. His men haven’t actually recorded a victory with him in charge, having last picked up a three-point haul with the caretakers still making the calls, whilst Eustace watched on from the stands, having been appointed just over 24 hours earlier.

One player who the new manager can rely on is Sammie Szmodics. The 28-year-old attacking midfielder has already found the net 18 times, which leads the way in the second-tier. There is little doubt that he’ll be the danger man that Eddie Howe would have focused on, as he’ll be able to drive with the ball through the heart of that porous Newcastle midfield.

Team News:

Ryan Hedges limped off early doors in Blackburn’s draw with Norwich on Saturday and must be considered a major doubt to recover in time for this one. He’ll be joined on the sidelines by Joe Rankin-Costello, John Fleck and Hayden Carter.

Sammie Szmodics and Sam Gallagher are expected to continue in the attacking positions and they’ll be key men for John Eustace’s side.

Newcastle could welcome Joe Willock back to the starting XI after an impressive cameo at the Emirates on Saturday evening. His drive and ability running with the ball has been missed for large swathes of the season, although in all likelihood, expect him to be slowly-eased back into the side, so a spot on the bench awaits.

The big decision for Eddie Howe will be who starts at left-back with the out-of-form Dan Burn and young Tino Liveramento battling for that position. Harvey Barnes could also start and Alexander Isak is expected to remain playing through the middle.

TV Details:

This FA Cup Fifth Round match will be broadcast live on BBC One in the UK. The game kicks-off at 19:45, with coverage starting on the channel at 19:30. Premier Sports 2 will be showing the game over in the Republic of Ireland.

Blackburn vs Newcastle Odds:

It should come as little surprise that Premier League Newcastle are pretty heavy-favourites to win this game in 90 minutes. You can back them at 1/2, with the home win priced-up at 5/1 and the draw coming in at 18/5.

With both sides poor defensively, seeing the Over 2.5 Goals line set at just 2/5 says plenty. Only Rotherham have conceded more than Blackburn in the Championship and the Both Teams to Score isn’t much longer at 1/2.

Out-of-form Alexander Isak is the only player shorter than evens to hit the back of the net. The Swedish international can be backed at 10/11 to score anytime. Sammie Szmodics at 21/10 looks a far more enticing proposition. This is the type of game though where Sean Longstaff pops up with a goal, the 13/5 on him is worth noting.

Bet 1 - Both Teams to Score in the First Half @ 9/4

The straight-up Over 2.5 and BTTS prices are just too short to touch as a single (although are more than playable in a Bet Builder/Acca), so I’ve looked for a bit of value deeper in the market for a similar type of bet.

Watching Newcastle in recent weeks has been tough for their fans but a joy for the neutral, as they both score plenty but also let in a fair few. They’ve also been a cracker for Over 2.5/BTTS Acca bets and I firmly expect Tuesday’s FA Cup encounter to follow the same trend.

Three times already in 2024 would this bet have been a winner in the Premier League for Newcastle matches. With Blackburn’s poor record at the back, I think Newcastle score early and having watched the Toon a fair bit, I just as easily think they concede early.

The 9/4 price indicates implied odds of just over 30%. Which means that the traders think this bet would be a winner in three out of every ten games these two met under these circumstances. I think it is more of a 50:50 shot.

Bet 2 - Match Result - Draw @ 18/5

I like this game to go beyond the allocated 90 minutes and the draw is a colossal price in my mind. 18/5 has implied odds of only just over 20%, which feels rather low.

Blackburn have drawn their past three and Newcastle feel under a huge amount of pressure. In my head, I think this finishes 2-2, with potentially Eddie Howe's men getting over the hump in extra time. If you fancy a small dabble in the Correct Score market, then that 2-2 scoreline is priced-up at 12/1.

Bet 3 - Four-legged #PickYourPunt Bet Builder @ 11/1

• Total Corners Over 11.5
• Over 3.5 Total Goals
• Newcastle Over 19.5 Booking Points
• Sammie Szmodics to score anytime

I’ve clearly indicated that I expect this game to be full of goals and attacking play, as neither side are much to write home about defensively.

This means I expect chances and that in-turn leads to plenty of opportunities for corners to be awarded. Newcastle games have cleared the 11.5 mark in four of their past nine games, whilst for Blackburn it has been three of their past six to hit this number.

The Over 3.5 Goals mark speaks for itself, as that has been a winner in the past eight games the Toon Army have played in the Premier League. Although it should be noted that neither of their FA Cup games in that run did hit the mark (0-3 and 0-2 wins).

Newcastle fans will not be happy to see Jarred Gillett as the man with the whistle. The Australian missed a straight-red card challenge from Moises Caicedo in the second-minute of the Carabao Cup clash with Chelsea at Stamford Bridge. With no VAR in operation that night, the decision wasn’t overturned and the home side went on to win the game on penalties.

The visitors average just over two yellow cards per game and you know both Bruno Guimaraes along with Anthony Gordon are both always in the mix to see a flash of yellow. After Saturday’s debacle at the Emirates, expect United to come out playing hot.

Lastly, I’ve already noted that Sammie Szmodics is a player who can cause Newcastle real fits on Tuesday evening. With 18 goals already to his name in the Championship, he’s 21/10 to add to that tally and inserting it into the Bet Builder nicely boosts the price to 11/1.

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