Central Coast Mariners vs Auckland Prediction: Cosgrove to go from card collector to goal grabber in Gosford

I recorded my fifth profitable week in seven during the latest round of Australian A-League Men's fixtures. We only squeaked into profit last week, but five out of seven for the season is a solid return so far, and we're +8.88% in 2025/26; here's hoping for more success in round eight.

Central Coast Mariners and Auckland FC open up this weekend's action, with the two teams facing off at the former's Polytec Stadium on Friday (08:35 GMT, TNT Sports 1). Below are my Central Coast Mariners vs Auckland predictions, alongside all the latest team news and match odds.

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New customers only. Deposit via Debit Card & place first bet £10+ (1/1+) on Sports in 7 days. £30 Sports & £20 Acca Free Bets within 10 hrs of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility, payment excl. & T&Cs Apply.

Team News

Diesel Herrington and Shumba Mutokoyi have been added to Central Coast Mariners' extended squad, but captain Trent Sainsbury (Achilles) and Haine Eames (unspecified) are still sidelined.

Football Odds

Auckland skipper Hiroki Sakai is back in Steve Corica's squad for the first time since coming off with a hamstring injury in the 14th minute of a 2-1 victory over Adelaide United on November 1, subsequently missing his side's next four games.

With Sakai, who opened the scoring in Auckland's 4-1 win in Gosford last season, back involved, Liam Gillion has dropped out of the extended squad.

Central Coast Mariners vs Auckland Odds

Central Coast Mariners have failed to win any of their last three games (D1, L2), and the Gosford club are underdogs for Friday, with their odds of 7/2 implying a 22.2% probability of success. Auckland, meanwhile, are 4/6, or a 60% chance, to collect all three points at Polytec Stadium, with the draw offered at 13/5.

Match Result And Total Goals Over/Under 3.5 - Auckland & Under 3.5 @ 11/8

This was a losing selection for me last week at 23/20 as Auckland scored their final goal against Wellington Phoenix in the 80th minute to secure a 3-1 victory at Go Media Stadium.

It wasn't far from landing, though, and there is logic to back the pick again this weekend.

Today's Football Fixtures

Last weekend's win was the first time since May 3, in a 4-2 victory for Western United, that an Auckland game had featured over 3.5 goals, and the first time since February 22, in a 6-1 thrashing of the Nix, that the Black Knights had won with at least four goals scored in the match.

Both meetings between the Mariners and Auckland last season produced over 3.5 goals, with the Black Knights securing a 4-1 success in Gosford last December before playing out a 2-2 draw at Go Media Stadium in March.

However, while it's still relatively early days, the Mariners do look more solid this term, keeping a couple of clean sheets and not conceding more than twice in a single game. Five of their matches, including two of their three defeats, have featured three or fewer goals, and with the first three of Auckland's four wins this season going the same way, a low-scoring away win looks like the best bet here.

Anytime Goalscorer - Sam Cosgrove (AKL) @ 13/10

Auckland striker Sam Cosgrove will have been left disappointed by his failure to convert from the penalty spot in last weekend's win against the Nix, but he later headed across for Guillermo May to score the Black Knights' third goal, registering an assist in back-to-back matches after setting up Louis Verstraete's effort in a 2-1 defeat to Newcastle Jets six days prior.

The 29-year-old has now scored or assisted in four of his last five appearances, opening the scoring in a 2-1 victory over Adelaide United on November 1 before bagging a brace in a 2-1 triumph at the Nix's Sky Stadium a week later.

Cosgrove will be looking to break out of his three-game barren run in front of goal this Friday, and the 6ft4in forward may take encouragement from the way in which Sydney's Victor Campuzano struck the Sky Blues' winner at Polytec Stadium last weekend.

The Spaniard ghosted in between centre-back and left-back to head home for the visitors, and if Cosgrove is afforded similar time and space in the CCM penalty area, expect the Englishman to take advantage in the same way Campuzano did.

The Auckland number nine's first goal for the club was a back-post header from a free-kick against Adelaide, so he's someone who has already shown himself to be a threat in the air and from set-pieces.

I successfully predicted Cosgrove to receive a card last weekend, but I'm tipping a more successful outcome for him this Friday.

Nick Ware P/L 25/26 ALM Season (After GW7)

 P/L: +8.88%