Auckland vs Wellington Phoenix Prediction: Cosgrove card in another New Zealand derby win for Black Knights

The first New Zealand derby of the 2025/26 Australian A-League Men’s season only took place less than a month ago, on November 8, when Auckland FC triumphed 2-1 at Wellington Phoenix’s Sky Stadium.

The two sides resume their rivalry on Saturday (04:00 GMT, TNT Sports 4), this time at Go Media Stadium, and ahead of the game, you can check out my Auckland vs Wellington Phoenix predictions below, alongside team news and match odds.

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Team News

Auckland captain Hiroki Sakai (hamstring) is still out injured, but Logan Rogerson, who has missed his side's last two games following his dimissal against Wellington Phoenix at Sky Stadium, is free to return against the same side on Saturday.

Football Odds

Luke Supyk (unspecified) has joined Tim Payne (broken collarbone), Paulo Retre (abdominal strain), Hideki Ishige (ACL), Nikola Mileusnic and Nathan Walker (both unspecified) in the Wellington Phoenix treatment room.

Auckland vs Wellington Phoenix Odds

Wellington Phoenix have lost all four ‘derbies’ to date, so it’s no surprise to see Giancarlo Italiano’s side handed odds of 9/2 here, implying an 18.2% probability of success, with Auckland priced at 1/2 (66.7%) to claim bragging rights again, and a first-ever stalemate between the two teams offered at 3/1.

Player to Receive a Card - Sam Cosgrove (AKL) @ 15/8

Auckland striker Sam Cosgrove has wasted no time in making his presence felt across the ALM.

In six appearances, the 29-year-old has been booked three times, receiving back-to-back yellow cards in his first two competition outings, a 0-0 draw at Melbourne Victory on October 18 and a 1-0 victory at home to Western Sydney Wanderers a week later, before earning his third caution in gameweek five against Brisbane Roar (1-1).

Only Western Sydney Wanderers centre-back Anthony Pantazopolous and Perth Glory full-back Joshua Ridson (both four) have picked up more yellows this season than Cosgrove, who has committed the most fouls (16) in the league, averaging 2.7 per game.

Today's Football Fixtures

The Englishman, who joined on a free in the off-season from EFL League 1 club Barnsley, avoided a booking in the first New Zealand derby of the campaign, instead making headlines by scoring a brace. Still, in just 54 minutes on the pitch, he conceded three free-kicks, a number he more than doubled in his next game against Brisbane Roar (seven).

Cosgrove only committed a single foul against the Jets last weekend, but you fancy he might be a bit more pumped up for Saturday's game, making him a prime candidate in the Player to Receive a Card market. At 15/8, he's certainly offering value, in my opinion.

Match Result & Total Goals Over/Under 3.5 - Auckland & Under 3.5 @ 23/20

This was an unsuccessful selection last weekend as Auckland fell to a shock 2-1 defeat at home to Newcastle Jets, but Saturday's game provides a perfect opportunity for the Black Knights to get back on track following two without a win (D1, L1).

The Nix beat Adelaide at Sky Stadium last Saturday, but Italiano's side are yet to win away from home this season, drawing 2-2 at Perth Glory on October 18 and holding Central Coast Mariners to a 1-1 stalemate on November 2. Their last away victory came at Newcastle Jets (1-2) on April 6, and that remains their only win in their last nine away from Sky Stadium (W1, D3, L5).

Auckland have won all four previous meetings, triumphing 2-0 in Wellington (November 2024) before winning 2-1 at home a month later and securing a second Go Media Stadium success over the Nix in February of this year.

Despite going down to 10 men in the 49th minute, and nine half an hour later, in last month's game, Steve Corica's charges held on to their 2-1 lead, making the above selection land for a third time in four head-to-heads.

Auckland boast a better first XI, squad and the mental edge on their rivals, so I'm confident in a home win on Saturday, particularly given the motivation they will have to secure all three points after two games without a win.

I'm also adding in under 3.5 goals as all six of Auckland's matches this season have featured three or fewer goals, while five of the Nix's six - their last five, in fact - have gone under 3.5 strikes.

Nick Ware P/L 25/26 ALM Season (after GW5)

 P/L: +9.88