Atalanta vs AC Milan Prediction: La Dea to bounce back from Monday humiliation?

One of the picks of the latest Serie A weekend can be found at the Gewiss Stadium on Saturday evening (KO, 17:00), as Atalanta welcome AC Milan to Bergamo.

The hosts have made a decent start to the season but back-to-back league defeats has taken some of the gloss off of it, particularly Monday night's 3-0 defeat to Torino.

Milan have enjoyed contrasting fortunes recently, overcoming a difficult spell to go unbeaten in their last three, picking up seven points to put themselves third and nine points clear of their next opponents, Atalanta.

Team News

Atalanta are expected to be without defensive trio Rafael Toloi, Jose Luis Palomino and Berat Djimsiti on Saturday, with the latter substituted in the 19th-minute on Monday. Head coach Gian Piero Gasperini will also have to make do without the services of summer signing Gianluca Scamacca, who has an adductor injury.

Scamacca's absence could hand Luis Muriel a rare start on Saturday, unless the on-loan Charles De Ketelaere is trusted to start against his parent club after failing to impress in Turin.

The good news for the visitors is that the 2021/22 Serie A Footballer of the Year, Rafael Leao, has rejoined team training after his recent injury. The bad news is that he may only be fit enough for the bench, particularly with a crucial Champions League clash against Newcastle United coming up in midweek.

That should see Christian Pulisic and Samuel Chukwueze keep their places either side of Olivier Giroud in attack, but the continued absences of Simon Kjaer, Pierre Kalulu and Malick Thiaw means Theo Hernandez may be forced to deputise in central defence again, with Alessandro Florenzi filling in at left-back.

Match Odds

Atalanta are 6/4 to claim victory on Saturday with a win for the visitors priced at 15/8. The clubs drew 1-1 in the corresponding fixture last season; it's 11/5 for the same result, 8/11 for BTTS and 11/2 for the same scoreline.

Over 2.5 goals @ EVS

Five of Atalanta's last seven Serie A games have had three or more goals, while three of Milan's last four in the competition have seen exactly four goals scored.

Goals have been particularly apparent in Milan's away games, with five of their seven away matches featuring at least three goals - no club in the division has seen that occur more on their travels.

Atalanta's last two at home in the league were against big-hitters in Napoli and Inter, and both games finished with three goals.

Atalanta or draw & both teams to score @ 11/8

La Dea may have lost their last two at home, but they can take solace in the fact those defeats came against last season's champions, Napoli, and the current pacesetters, Inter, both of whom are top of the Serie A away table. Prior to that they had collected 10 points from their first four at home, so their confidence shouldn't be knocked too much.

Milan's away form hasn't been great recently, either. Out of their last seven in all competitions they have won two, drawn three, and lost two. A 2-2 draw at Lecce in their last league away game was particularly poor as they were two-up until the 66th-minute.

I think Atalanta can get back on track with at least a draw on Saturday, especially as Milan may have one eye on the Champions League and have some key players out, and Leao likely starting on the bench.

Both sides should back themselves to score, though - Atalanta have scored in five out of six Serie A games at the Gewiss Stadium, while Milan have scored in every away league match.