Argentina vs Colombia Prediction: Penalties loom large for 2024 Copa America finalists

The 2024 Copa America began with Argentina on June 21 as Lionel Messi and co beat first-time entrants Canada 2-0, and after triumphing by the same score against the same team in the semi-finals on Wednesday, the competition will culminate with La Albiceleste in Monday's final at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida (01:00, Premier Sports 1).

Lionel Scaloni's side will face Colombia after Los Cafeteros beat Uruguay 1-0 in a fiercely fought semi-final on Thursday to extend their unbeaten run to 28 games. Ahead of Monday's match, check out my Argentina vs Colombia prediction below, where you can also find all the latest team news and match odds.

Copa America Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Copa America page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this competition.

Road to the final

After downing Canada in the tournament opener, Argentina went on to complete a perfect group stage, beating Chile (1-0) and Peru (2-0) to collect a maximum of nine points without conceding.

However, things were much trickier in the quarter-finals as Ecuador's Kevin Rodriguez struck in second-half stoppage time to cancel out Lisandro Martinez's first-half goal and take the tie to penalties where, after Messi missed, Emiliano Martinez made himself the hero again with a couple of saves to send his country through to the last four, where Canada were dealt with again.

Colombia's path to the knockouts wasn't quite as plain-sailing, but after beating Paraguay (2-1) and Costa Rica (3-0), they secured top spot in Group D by holding Brazil to a 1-1 draw.

Panama were subsequently thumped 5-0 in the quarters before Jefferson Lerma netted the all-important goal against Uruguay that proved to be the winner for Los Cafeteros, who are now seeking to lift their second-ever Copa America title, up against reigning champions Argentina who are looking to win the competition for a record 16th time.

Team News

Argentina look to have a full complement to choose from for Monday's match with no injuries or suspensions to any player.

As such, they could name an unchanged XI from Wednesday, with Emiliano Martinez lining up in goal behind Gonzalo Montiel, Cristian Romero, Lisandro Martinez and Nicolas Tagliafico.

In midfield, Enzo Fernandez, Rodrigo de Paul and Alexis Mac Allister form a balanced trio, while Messi, Julian Alvarez and Angel Di Maria are the likely front three again.

Colombia aren't quite so lucky, with at least one change required in defence. Left-back Johan Mojica and centre-back Davinson Sanchez are certainties in front of goalkeeper Camilo Vargas, but right-back Daniel Munoz will need to be replaced following his first-half red card against Uruguay on Thursday.

Santiago Arias played the second half against La Celeste but if Jhon Lucumi, who hasn't featured since coming off against Paraguay on June 24 through injury, can prove his fitness, he may well be paired with Sanchez at the heart of defence, allowing Carlos Cuesta to shift to right-back instead of Arias, who doesn't appear to be fully trusted by fans.

There were concerns over the fitness of Richard Rios, who was substituted midway through Thursday's second half, but the Palmeiras midfielder appeared to allay any concerns in his post-match interview and looks set to partner Lerma in the middle of midfield once more.

Meanwhile, Jhon Arias, James Rodriguez, Luis Diaz and Jhon Cordoba will hope to spark the attack.

Argentina vs Colombia Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Argentina vs Colombia page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

As reigning Copa America and World Cup champions, it's no wonder Argentina are favourites to triumph inside regulation time on Monday, with odds of 23/20 giving them an implied win probability of 46.5%. Colombia, meanwhile, can be backed at 12/5, or a 29.4% chance, to claim victory inside 90 minutes.

The draw, which would send the tie straight to extra-time and potentially penalties, is available at 15/8, while both teams to score and over 2.5 goals are priced at 11/10 and 6/4 respectively.

Unsurprisingly, Messi is 9/5 favourite to score anytime and 9/2 to find the net first.

Cordoba and Miguel Borja (both 3/1) are rated as Colombia's most likely players to score anytime.

Bet Builder - Colombia or Draw, Luis Diaz 1+ shots on target, Lionel Messi 1+ shots on target, each team over 19.5 booking points @ 18/5

Colombia made it 28 games unbeaten with a victory over Uruguay on Thursday, a run that started in March 2022, with their last defeat coming a month prior against this weekend's opponents, who won 1-0 through Lautaro Martinez.

It's a simply sensational feat from Los Cafeteros, who are really putting themselves on the map not just in South American football, but in world football.

Argentina, meanwhile, have been efficient without being overly impressive, failing to score more than two goals in any game at Copa America so far. I think La Albiceleste will have their work cut out on Monday, and Colombia can take the tie to a penalty shoot-out at the very minimum.

Rodriguez has taken most of the plaudits for Los Cafeteros this summer, and rightly so given the playmaker's renaissance on the international stage.

However, Diaz is still Colombia's key man and will be leaned on to provide his best in the final.

The Liverpool winger has scored twice so far, one of his strikes coming from the penalty spot, but he's been pretty consistent in getting shots on target. He's averaging 0.8 shots on target per game having registered one against Costa Rica, Brazil, Panama and Uruguay, only failing to get one in his country's group opener against Paraguay.

Diaz has proven to be the man for the big occasion for Colombia in the past, scoring twice last year to help down Brazil 2-1, and he will be looking to step up again on Monday.

On the other side is a man who needs no introduction - Messi.

It was a slow start to the tournament for the 37-year-old, who only bagged his first goal in Wednesday's semi-final, but he hasn't been shy to shoot in the USA.

Messi has averaged three shots per game at the 2024 Copa America, 1.2 on target, with the 1-0 victory over Chile the only match in which he hasn't at least tested the goalkeeper, and even then he was unlucky as he struck the post in the 36th minute.

The fourth and final leg of this bet builder requires each team to receive over 19.5 booking points. With Betfred, yellow cards are worth 10 points, while red cards total 25 points.

Argentina only received 10 booking points in their semi-final against Canada, which wasn't unexpected given the superiority they were expected to enjoy over their opponents, but they did pick up two yellows (20 booking points) in their quarter-final tie with Venezuela, which was a lot closer and ended up going to penalties.

La Albiceleste were also shown two cards in their tournament opener with Canada.

Colombia went well over the booking points threshold against Uruguay as Munoz's first-half red card for two yellows was followed by a trio of his teammates going into the book in the second half.

Los Cafeteros also received 20 booking points in group games with Brazil and Costa Rica.

Given the importance of Monday's final, it wouldn't be a surprise to see tempers flare at Hard Rock Stadium.

Correct Score - Draw 0-0 @ 5/1

I think we could see a really tight game in Miami Gardens, with both teams proving so difficult to beat.

Colombia are looking to make it 29 unbeaten on Monday, but Argentina have only lost one of their last 25 games themselves and are favourites to lift the trophy for a record 16th time.

Ultimately, despite the array of attacking talent on the pitch, both defences may win out.

Argentina have conceded just once at this summer's tournament and that was only in added time against Venezuela, while Colombia have only let in one more.

Another penalty shoot-out beckons, where Emiliano Martinez will be looking to make himself the hero yet again.

Offers

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