Senegal vs Morocco Prediction: Host nation can edge cagey final

The stage is set for the final of the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations as hosts Morocco will meet defending champions Senegal at Prince Moulay Abdellah Stadium (19:00 GMT, live on E4).

The continent’s two highest-ranked teams have reached the final without a defeat, and an epic showdown looks to be in the offing this weekend. Read on for my Senegal vs Morocco tips, as well as the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

A couple of costly moments in Senegal's semi-final with Egypt will leave them without two starters for Sunday's final.

Captain Kalidou Koulibaly picked up his second caution of the knockouts early on in the match, though he soon went off injured regardless. Habib Diarra was booked for dissent just before the interval, meaning that the midfielder will be suspended here. The pair were replaced by Mamadou Sarr and Lamine Camara, who may be given starting roles on Sunday.

The only notable absentee for Morocco is Azzedine Ounahi, who continues to recover from a leg injury, so Walid Regragui may opt for the same starting XI that he picked against Nigeria in the semi-finals.

Senegal vs Morocco Odds

Senegal are 13/5 to win in 90 minutes, the draw is 15/8 and Morocco are 13/10 to win in 90 minutes, giving them an implied win probability of 43.5%.

The Lions of Teranga are 6/5 to win the tie, while it's 8/13 for the host nation in the same market.

Morocco win and under 2.5 goals @ 13/5

It feels like there's very little to separate the two sides heading into Sunday's final.

Morocco have conceded just one goal - which was a penalty - across six matches, while Senegal's recent Afcon record makes them imperious opponents. They lifted the trophy in 2021 and made the final in 2019, meaning they have been among the continent’s top two in three of the last four championships.

Both teams are extremely solid defensively - Senegal allowed just four shots, one of which was on target, against Egypt while Morocco were allowed Nigeria just two attempts on goal in their semi-final.

So, I'm predicting a low-scoring, nervy game, but I have Morocco edging it - the host nation have won five of the last seven head-to-heads between the two teams.

Brahim Diaz to score anytime @ 5/2

Brahim Diaz is the tournament's top goalscorer heading into Sunday, and although his scoring streak was snapped last time out, he remains a huge threat in this weekend's showpiece.

This is the first time the Real Madrid man is representing Morocco at a major tournament, and it seems destined for him to produce another moment of magic to win his nation's home tournament.

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