Mali vs Senegal Prediction: Lions of Teranga to return to the semi-finals

 | Friday 9th January 2026, 5:00am

Friday 9th January 2026, 5:00am

Mali and Senegal face each other in Tangier on Friday (16:00 GMT, E4) in the quarter-finals of the Africa Cup of Nations. Mali needed penalties to get past Tunisia in the last round, while Senegal were 3-1 winners over Sudan.

Below you will find my Mali vs Senegal predictions, accompanied by the latest match odds and team news.

Mali vs Senegal Betting Tips

  • Match Result & Over/Under 3.5 Goals - Senegal & Under @ 19/20
  • Anytime Goalscorer - Cherif Ndiaye @ 15/8

*Odds correct as of the time of publication

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Team News

Following his dismissal against Tunisia, Mali will be without Woyo Coulibaly against Senegal due to suspension, so Hamari Traore should take his place at right-back.

Lassana Coulibaly was also taken off in the same game with an injury and he is also expected to miss out on Friday's clash. Kamory Doumbia will be pushing to feature in the attacking midfield spot should Coulibaly miss out.

Football Odds

Senegal have no injury concerns heading into Friday and they will welcome back captain Kalidou Koulibaly following his one-game suspension against Sudan. So Abdoulaye Seck is set to drop out of the defence for the skipper against Mali.

Iliman Ndiaye will be hoping to return to the front three alongside Sadio Mane and Nicolas Jackson, although Ismaila Sarr will be hoping to retain this spot on the right flank.

Mali vs Senegal Predicted Lineups

  • Mali: Diarra; Dante, Camara, Diaby, Traore; Dieng, Bissouma; Coulibaly, Doumbia, Sangare; Sinayoko
  • Senegal: Mendy; Jakobs, Niakhate, Koulibaly, Diatta; P. Gueye, I. Gueye, Diarra; Mane, Jackson, Ndiaye

Mali vs Senegal Odds

Mali are hoping to reach the semi-finals for the first time since 2013 and they are 5/1 to stun Senegal in regulation time.

The Eagles have drawn all four of their Afcon matches in Morocco so far and the stalemate here is available at 5/2.

Senegal are 8/13 (implied probability of 61.9%) to prevail inside 90 minutes, having won three of their four matches at the tournament to date.

BTTS - Yes has landed in three of Mali's four Afcon fixtures and this can be backed at 5/4 on Friday.

Mali vs Senegal Stats

  • Senegal have won three of their four matches at Afcon
  • Under 3.5 Goals has landed in three of them

Today's Football Fixtures

Match Result & Over/Under 3.5 Goals - Senegal & Under @ 19/20

Senegal surprisingly have just once Afcon title to their name, which came in the 2021 edition, and given the talent that they continue to produce, many are expecting them to start becoming a more dominant force on this stage.

They fell short in the Ivory Coast in the last tournament, bowing out at the round of 16 stage, but they have surpassed that this time around and they will now have their sights on a place in the semi-finals.

The Lions of Teranga should have plenty of confidence from their three wins from four in Morocco, but they cannot underestimate Mali, who have drawn all four of their games so far.

The Eagles will try to make this game as difficult as possible but I think Senegal have a lot of strong attacking options who can break them down and lead them to victory.

I've also covered under 3.5 goals because three of Senegal's four games featured fewer than four goals, while this market has landed in all four of Mali's matches.

Mali vs Senegal - Match Result And Total Goals Over/Under 3.5
Senegal Win & Under 3.5 Goals

Odds correct at time of publishing.

Anytime Goalscorer - Cherif Ndiaye @ 15/8

Thiaw will likely turn to forward Cherif Ndiaye in the second half if things aren't going to plan with the starting XI. The attacker has two goals to his name at the tournament so far, the joint-most for his country (alongside Jackson) and on both occasions he came on to have an impact from the bench.

The first was a late goal to wrap up a 3-0 victory over Botswana and the second was a late penalty in the 3-0 victory over Benin. He was an unused substitute against Sudan so he should be refreshed and raring to go against a stubborn Mali side.

I can see him entering the fold to help give his side the push they need in the final third, or perhaps even put the icing on the cake.

Mali vs Senegal - Anytime Goalscorer
Cherif Ndiaye

Odds correct at time of publishing.

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