Algeria vs Nigeria Prediction: Big battle brewing between Bensebaini and Osimhen

The third quarter-final of the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations takes place at the Stade de Marrakech on Saturday (16:00 GMT, E4), with Algeria, who overcame Congo DR 1-0 after extra time in the last 16, taking on a Nigeria side that demolished Mozambique 4-0 at the same stage.

Below you can find my Algeria vs Nigeria predictions, alongside all the latest team news and match odds, as the two teams battle it out for a place in next week's semi-finals.

Team News

Samir Chergui, Mohamed Tougai (both unspecified) and Ismael Bennacer (hamstring) are all doubts for Algeria, but Jaouen Hadjam, who missed the Desert Foxes' last two games after picking up an ankle injury against Burkina Faso, could return.

Football Odds

The big news surrounding Nigeria heading into this game is whether Victor Osimhen starts.

The Galatasaray striker has scored three times so far, including a last-16 brace against Mozambique, but in that tie, he fell out with a couple of his teammates, including four-goal forward Ademola Lookman.

Super Eagles head coach Eric Chelle will hope his star men can put their differences behind them and work cohesively on Saturday.

Algeria vs Nigeria Odds

Algeria, who have won the last three head-to-heads, the first of which was a 2-1 victory in the semi-finals of the 2019 Afcon, are 2/1 underdogs for this quarter-final tie, implying a 33.3% probability of success. Nigeria, who were beaten 2-1 by Ivory Coast in the 2023 Afcon final (played in 2024), are 6/4 (40%) in the Match Result market (90 minutes).

The draw, which would send the tie to extra time, is offered at 2/1, with Algeria and Nigeria priced at 1/1 and 8/11, respectively, in the 'To Win Tie' market.

Betfred's Price Boosts for this crunch clash include Both Teams to Score, Both Teams 4+ Corners & Both Teams 20+ Booking Pts at 9/1 (was 15/2).

Team With Most Booking Points - Nigeria @ 11/8

Nigeria have received at least two yellow cards in three of their four games so far at the 2025 Afcon, collecting nine in total.

The Super Eagles only picked up a single caution in their opening match against Tanzania before being shown three, two and three against Tunisia, Uganda and Mozambique, respectively. Chelle's charges were in receipt of the most booking points against three of those teams (Tanzania, Tunisia and Mozambique).

With all that's gone on with Osimhen recently, you get the feeling that all is not well in the Nigeria camp.

Algeria, meanwhile, have only picked up three yellows across four games in regulation time, matching that number in extra time against Congo DR. Their three group-stage opponents all received the most booking points against them, while in their last-16 tie with Congo DR, there were no cards shown in the 90 minutes.

The two sides have played each other twice since the start of 2020, with Nigeria a winning selection in the 'Team With Most Booking Points' market on both occasions.

Bet Builder - Victor Osimhen (NGA) Shown Any Card & Ramy Bensebaini (ALG) Shown Any Card @ 9/1

I see a big battle brewing between Osimhen and Algeria defender Ramy Bensebaini on Saturday.

Both are physical players, highlighted by Osimhen's 1.8 fouls-per-game average at the 2025 Afcon, and Bensebaini's 1.7 fouls-per-game average at the same tournament.

The Nigeria striker, who has picked up four yellows in 12 Super Lig appearances for Galatasaray this season, has been booked once at this Afcon, in his country's 3-2 group-stage victory over Tunisia on December 27.

Bensebaini, meanwhile, is yet to be cautioned in the competition, but he's on four yellows for club side Borussia Dortmund this term (three in the Bundesliga, one in the Uefa Champions League). In the top division of German football, the 30-year-old is averaging 1.5 fouls per game, and in the Champions League, he's averaging 1.8 fouls per game.

The former Borussia Monchengladbach man suffers his fair share of fouls, too, averaging 1.6 won per game in this season's Champions League, and 2.7 per game at this Afcon. Sudan's Salaheldin Adil went into the book for a foul on him in Algeria's 3-0 win on December 24.

Both Osimhen and Bensebaini could get drawn into a physical contest on Saturday, which makes this 9/1 'Shown Any Card' double appeal at 9/1 in Betfred's Bet Builder tab.

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